Europa Oil & Gas (holdin... Share Discussion Threads

[jusmasel99] 08/8/2017 04:50

Corrib and its potential remain fascinating to me.

hxxp://www.eolasmagazine.ie/corrib-securing-irelands-energy-future/

This article from 2015 signals I think that Shell had already decided to leave (they were certainly touting Corrib for sale in 2016).

Note what Shell say here:

He also views the Corrib infrastructure offshore and onshore as providing a catalyst for further exploration. The Government will carry out a new exploration round in September, the first in four years, and “having Corrib up and running by then will be a tremendous encouragement for other companies to participate in that round.”
Any companies operating in the vicinity of Corrib will benefit from the economic prospects in the West. Corrib’s declining production over its lifetime will free up capacity in the infrastructure “which the Government and the country should be keen to make use of.”

[rogerlin] 07/8/2017 17:25

Just need some of that UKOG rocket fuel and we should fire off vertically upwards too! Doesn't seem to have much to do with fundamentals this rocket fuel, it seems to combust spontaneously when it gets going.

[fardels bear] 06/8/2017 18:55

And so does everyone else on here. Trouble is they all sell out again when the chart hits resistance...

[enfranglais] 06/8/2017 16:35

Pappy - Anyone buying in the 6p area, should have over a 50% chance of doubling their money in a one year timeframe & an 80% chance of a 50% gain in the next 6 months, with little chance of losing their capital oimnsho!
No need to chase but will keep topping up using gains from MARL, anytime (or if) this gets down to 6p again!!!!

[bountyhunter] 05/8/2017 16:55

that depends on your time frame, maybe April next year :)

not that charting is all that useful for a company with such a small market cap which is largely news driven



high volumes of late

[papillon] 04/8/2017 21:08

CURRYPASTY 25 Jul '17 - 12:06 - 5282 of 5470 1 1
looks like we are heading over 10p shortly

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

With the benefit of hindsight, No it doesn't!

[rogerlin] 04/8/2017 18:52

"Preliminary well analysis indicated the reservoir to be water bearing, however, petrophysical log interpretation, elevated gas levels, together with oil shows in sidewall cores over the upper section of the reservoir, suggested the presence of a residual oil column."

The oil traces at Dunquin were not apparent straight away. Dunquin is some distance from Druid, about 100km I think from the diagram, but surely the presence of source in the basin was proven there?

[jusmasel99] 04/8/2017 17:33

Very interesting tweet from EOG - Disappointing but not unexpected news from PVR for Europa the main event is Drombeg Cretaceous fan, watch this space

"not unexpected"

Is NGMS actually Hugh in disguise?

[greatfull dead] 04/8/2017 15:45

ng, the rig is on location so why not continue with the gamble!!!!!!

[ngms27] 04/8/2017 15:40

Ed, I'm 99% certain seal was the issue with Druid.I simply cannot see them drilling to Drombeg otherwise.Therefore in my opinion your stated COS is simply far too low. Drombeg looks as robust as anything in the South Porcupine to me. If there's no source there I'd think the basins worthless.I also think Holmwood will be put back a year now.

[greatfull dead] 04/8/2017 15:09

Sticking with EOG. PVR is way in the past for me.

GLA,
GD

[edgein] 04/8/2017 13:54

JonnyT,

True but a lot of assumptions about Druid haven't lived up to the pre-drill. I would imagine if they had shows they would have mentioned them. However there's still a remote chance for Drombeg, but I'd give it somewhere between 1-15 to 1-20 given the inaccurate model for fluid type and migration so far.

Phoeb,

Very true, any Druid related spike here may not have lasted through to H-1. Focus will be on Holmwood as the near term high impact project for EOG. We've seen how the KL has transformed the valuations of both ANGS and UKOG recently. If they get good sustainable rates at BB-1 then H-1 is the next in line to be drilled and we've the smallest cap for our net acreage of Holmwood area.

Regards,
Ed.

[phoebusav] 04/8/2017 13:36

Focussing on Ireland today given the PVR RNS is understandable, but it needs to be put in persective. Go and reread the operations schedule on p25 of the June 2017 presenation. hxxp://www.europaoil.com/documents/2017newcorpv7.pdf You will note that EOG has only one possible Irish drill anytime before 2020, and that would be mid 2019, which is 2 years away! Holmwood however is a firm well for 2017 and an analog of HH-1 and BB-1. Valuing EOG based on Irish operations at the current juncture is a big mistake. Definitely a case of BTFD.

[phoebusav] 04/8/2017 13:21

I think that's being overly pessemistic on Holmwood for the sake of it. Only some minor issues to be addressed with the TMP and then they can move on drilling. There will be massive interest here when it gets underway. Holmwood and not Ireland will be the big driver for EOG over the next six months. All to play for.

[jusmasel99] 04/8/2017 13:19

DH - I continually post optimistically because I don't post negative thoughts (other than when I expressed doubt on the Weald Kimmeridge until Mr Ed converted me). I gave up long ago adding IMHO and DYOR to every post. That should be taken for granted now.

As for being emotionally tied? Yes and No to that. I chose EOG for a reason because I believe it does have the chance to multiply my pension fund to a level I can retire on. It is the main vehicle but not the only one. That's the yes part. I am not that emotionally tied as not to be able to trade these. I bought more this morning with proceeds from my sale at 9.5p. (some - my wife now has a new VW Golf)

I have no experience in oil exploration but I have experience in investment in oil companies and I have done very well over the years thank you very much. Without my posts and without blowing my own trumpet this board and the LSE board would be dead although CP has shaken the tree here and others have climbed aboard LSE. These boards attract investors, are read by the MMs, brokers, press and management of the companies alike. Positive comments help.

I know I am not in your league as far as knowledge of oil exploration and geology go but I do like to join in occasionally - like a learner Guitar PLayer jamming with professional musicians.. If I hit the wrong note - which I do sometimes then I expect to be corrected - but I can also challenge assertions still surely? Even a bad guitar player can identify a wrong chord.

Onwards and Downwards I say

Roll on Drombeg

[ngms27] 04/8/2017 13:17

Ed, I don't think Total and Cairn would be deepening this well if they thought that Druid failed due to lack of source from Diablo.It's clear looking at the technical data that the seal at Druid was the largest question relying on potential mudstone from a cut channel.We have no idea if Druid had traces of hydrocarbons or not, the RNS was very short and lacking in any real detail.AVO as you know doesn't have great success on wildcats like this, but it can have an excellent outcome following a discovery. An example is the Palaeocene West of Shetland.Regarding Drombeg, if it is indeed over pressured then it could be from an aquifer, hydrocarbons or a mixture of both. Either way it infers an intact seal.However the COS will still be below 30% so it's likely to fail.

[dunderheed] 04/8/2017 13:00

I agree totally.

[edgein] 04/8/2017 12:59

Dunderheed,

Yeah pretty much. But I'll eat my hat if Drombeg is commerical.

Regards,
Ed.

[dunderheed] 04/8/2017 12:52

Ed - I 'think' we are saying the same thing but obviously I do not have your technical expertise!

[edgein] 04/8/2017 12:44

Dunderheed,

Yes they may have been in for Drombeg, but the Druid results throws into question a number of things. Namely the accuracy of the model, not just in terms of migration from the diablo ridge, but also their fluid velocity models. Clearly the false +ve AVO doesn't bode well for Drombeg, nor for the fluid type model. Its not a seal issue as there would have been traces. It looks more like a source issue, or lack there of. the chances of fault formation after Drombeg trap is now a long shot. Fault is clearly seen on the seismic ending just below Druid. The only way that could be accounted for a +ve Drombeg and a -ve Druid would be oil migration before the fault extended above Drombeg without any oil escaping that system since. That is a real longshot now. Over pressured fluids may just be a deep cretaceous aquifer. If there had been a breach of Druid trap there would have been traces as you suggest, evidence of HC's. We still cannot rule out that there's source to the east of the basin, Shaw may still be a +ve, its still a huge basin, but in no way derisks our prospects in the Irish AM. As you say Holmwood is all to play for, hopefully still scheduled for Q4 and completion of the BB-1 flow tests.

Regards,
Ed.

[ngms27] 04/8/2017 12:33

My view is that this years window to drill Holmwood will pass. It seems the protesters have played the game to delay as long as possible hoping for a labour government to stop the drilling

[dunderheed] 04/8/2017 12:15

jus - all I was pointing out was that you continually post optimistically but for the lesser experienced reader they may think what you are saying is factual or they accredit to you a deeper 'understanding' of the risks involved than I think you appreciate. Without wishing to sound patronising I think you are emotionally tied to eog. Easily done - i've made big losses of potential profit getting greedy over on aex.
Of course I am not happy it is a duster but the chances always were of that secnario - I would have been very happy with evidence of hc's.
I think (please note think - hunch - not fact and I know no more than anyone else on here) Cairn and more importantly Total are there for deeper prospect anyway but whilst I can see what ngm is saying regarding seal - I - being a 'black hole' am not optimistic at all now and personally perceive the chance on this as now being lower than i may have done yesterday.
I am very hopeful for Holmwood but am mot confident we will drill in 2017.
Still a holder!!

[edgein] 04/8/2017 10:57

Well the main even has yet to come, and yes that's Holmwood and not Drombeg. Good to see folks getting some cheapuns ahead of the anticipated H-1 later this year.

Regards,
Ed.

[ngms27] 04/8/2017 09:11

Yes justmasel99 you are correct Drombeg is less than a 30% COS.However to me having looked at the seismic etc it is without doubt to me a more robust target than Druid.It's closer to potential source, looks over pressured which are positive indicators. Druid on the other hand had material doubts about seal given they only thought mudstone from another potential channel cut would provide this.In my view Drombeg is what PVR and Total really wanted to test.

[timw3] 04/8/2017 09:04

o/t HUGE news at AAOG. Secondary completion for $800m drill signed off!!

AAOG £3m cap once cash is stripped out vs $800m drill in the coming weeks. Totally insane valuation. Should be 50p+ AT LEAST!