Eqtec Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 16/2/2022 11:07

The market for EQT's technology.

Using the Confederation of European Waste to Energy Plants data, EQTEC suggest that if they targeted 3% of the €20 billion serviceable market for infrastructure and €70 billion of infrastructure coming to end of life they would have an obtainable market of €600m through 2030 only replacing existing incineration infrastructure.

The total current backlog pipeline contract value of c. €560m doesn’t include a single incineration replacement project yet, which lead us to believe that EQTECs TAM can be significantly larger.

When we consider the market including biofuels and hydrogen which are within the technical scope of EQTEC’s proven technology, it is a greater multiple of the waste replacement market.
The advance biofuels market is expected to be worth around US$ 307.01 billion by 2030 from US$ 141.32 billion in 2020 (Precedence Research); and the hydrogen generation market is valued at USD 120.77 billion in 2020 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% from 2021 to 2028 (Grand View Research).

Licensing may well be possible in harder to reach geographies or indeed as a quicker way to address the growing TAM of gasification.

[stevea171] 16/2/2022 09:18

The 4 milestones are 40%, 25%, 25%, 10%.

40%
Financial Close

25%
• Delivery of Equipment on Site

25%
• Equipment Assembly
• Plant Intergration

10%
•Successful achievement of post-COD performance
thresholds

Page 11.

If Billingham does financially close before Xmas there is a 40% FC milestone payment that can be invoiced at that time. I won't guess at how much that is but it should be considerable on a £200 million (?) project.

[bradders51] 16/2/2022 09:09

Precisely. That's why, if the estimates are even remotely accurate, we'll be able to pay the remaining monies. Whether or not the bod want to use the cash to do that is another matter.
Hugely de-risked now imho.

[stevea171] 16/2/2022 08:28

Arden has excluded Billingham from its revenue estimate so likewise from YE 2022 cash.

[bradders51] 16/2/2022 08:25

One obvious thing with cash at "year end" is that if Billingham is paid with it, then the figure must be far lower than 16(e) million.
The point with the estimated cash is that if all goes reasonably well, we'll be able to pay the owing balance.
You'd have to miss targets by a huge amount not to.

[stevea171] 16/2/2022 08:11

I'd have more faith in Arden's estimates of cash at year end who have at least sat down with/spoken with the company than someone who is a hater of this company and the CEO and is just spitting more and more hate with every post .....

Also he's been proved wrong about his prediction of a cash raise this month so no credibility at all.

Arden expect net cash at the end of 2021 and 2022 to be €5.4 million and €16.3 million with no cash raises in 2022.

[aja2] 16/2/2022 00:36

That's rather disingenuous with regards to the burn rate as they paid back a €1.25M loan in June 21 reducing their cash balance.'loan facility of EUR1.25 million with EQTEC shareholder Altair Group Investment Limited ("Altair"), with a maturity date of 31 December 2021. The loan, fully drawn down to repay an outstanding debt with another lender, had a lower interest rate than the previously held debt facility but was then itself repaid in full to Altair, in June 2021, six months ahead of schedule.'

[marktime1231] 16/2/2022 00:02

The E15M revenue target last year was reasonably achievable. But not achieved, by a distance, despite projecting confidence for most of the year. It kind of weakens any belief in a projection for the future.

I don't think we know what the cash position or burn rate is, do we. My instinct is that they are running low. The unaudited as-at 30 Jun 2021 after a £16M fund raise in May was stated as E15.3M. Which implies a heck of a burn rate, the period since has been characterised by a flurry of investment commitments, deferred/delayed revenue and a quarterly trading update to confirm EQT was still loss making. For sure there was not enough cash to buy the Billingham site.

How much cash do you think they have now, how "easily" will we make it to your year+ "from the look of it" eg June? You don't know any better than anyone else, do you? Perhaps we should wait for Grant Thornton to have examined going concern based on actual cash position and cash flow projections for the whole year ahead.

Annual report and accounts expected in April, last year on 19th.

In the meantime we can hope for the best and/or fear the worst.

[dougy1] 15/2/2022 18:37

Too many newbies to the game without having done any research. They believe the first thing they see on twitter or here or LSE and jump on the bandwagon

[yump] 15/2/2022 16:59

Some people just talk shares down without knowing much. The cash raised was easily enough to cope with the burn rate for a year+ from the look of it and that's without the revenue from this year.

I guess we'll find out in while if this rise is a technical bounce or actual "proper" buyers on a bargain hunt.

I don't know why people bang on about placings without at least checking the finances.

[stevea171] 15/2/2022 15:18

From Aandi LSE:
Page 14.

Eqtec made €8 to €10m revenue in 2021 from a total of 3 financial closures on projects 1MW, 1.5MW, 3MW (Italia MDC, Belisce MDC and Karlovac). Toral = 5.5MW.
Eqtec will continue to generate revenue from these projects as future milestone payments are received.

There are a further 9 projects in development plus 3 in France and 2 in the USA.
MW of these 9 projects is as follows:
Billingham 25MW,
Deeside 9MW + extra biofuels,
Southport 9MW,
Sligo 20MW,
Shannon 20MW,
Livadia 1MW,
Livadia2 - 1MW,
Nobilos 1MW,
Drama 5MW.
Total = 81MW.

The €18m technology sales revenue target forecast for 2022 (out of €30 million total) in my opinion is reachable from the smaller projects. Financial close of just one big project and 2022 revenues double this current forecast.

[hoper1] 15/2/2022 14:52

Bradders - WTFDIK... About as much as the rest of us I should think!

[juju44] 15/2/2022 13:34

Market giving its verdict

[marktime1231] 15/2/2022 13:26

Strange that the market finds this positive, I suppose it could have been worse.

It gets EQT off the short term hook of finding £8M it doesn't have, which it can't raise because revenues are drifting and there is no room in the share price to go for an issue. I did warn you all this was coming and it was/is no comfort that the agreement could be/has been deferred because it is costing us dear.

An immediate £250K cash penalty for the delay/extension, and needing to find another £750K down payments before the Dec 22 longstop. Not sure how likely any of that money is going to be recouped if there is no deal, so this could be more good money after bad.

Palumbo no further forward on this project after a whole year of trying, at a time when the doors to clean energy project investors should be wide open. No mention of real life partners, still exploring the options with "varied interest" at early feasibility study stages, Kibo not mentioned. Varied presumably between not much interest and none at all.

It must have been a terrible decision in the boardroom whether to call it quits, cut losses and walk away, but Palumbo has once again sold us on promise. A braver man might have quit Billingham, but not Palumbo, unable to admit it was a foolish gamble to commit funds beyond our scale without a partner. He must surely be on borrowed time, even if the smaller near term projects start delivering this year Billingham covers them all under a terrible shadow.

Can Palumbo still pull this out of the bag, find a partner with deep pockets to dig him out of a hole? I hope something will lift us out of the red but the chances must be pretty low and I still consider my stake here is a write-off. I suspect 0.5p is more likely than 1.5p again. Or 2.5p was it before he got us in to this horrible mess, pretending to focus on the near term low risk ventures while actually still betting the company on an outside chance.

[juju44] 15/2/2022 13:14

But no shortage of sellers - although small volume overall

[juju44] 15/2/2022 12:11

Paucity of buyers despite RNS

[stevea171] 15/2/2022 11:06

Arden's new Research Note out today:



They have reduced sales for this year to give scope for the company to over achieve rather than a repeat of what happened last year! But they do expect the company to be profitable to the tune of €1.5 million.

Also they expect net cash at the end of 2021 and 2022 to be €5.4 million and €16.3 million.
ie NO cash raise likely!!

[skinny] 15/2/2022 10:56

A bit more PR :-

[skinny] 15/2/2022 10:45

I wish it was 90-95p!

[stevea171] 15/2/2022 10:44

EQT: .90-.95p +12.1% Volume 11.6 million.

Hopefully this rise today can hold and the share price will start to recover from here with this significant news today.

This outcome for the land purchase agreement is in line with the terms of the agreement that were published nearly a year ago and is what I have said a number of times here. However The poster scare mongering for months here about dilution from a company cash raise connected to the Billingham end of Feb deadline has some humble pie to eat for breakfast this morning ....!

ok still waking up!

[stevea171] 15/2/2022 10:25

The rest of today's RNS:
David Palumbo, CEO of EQTEC, commented:

"The Billingham project on Teesside continues to generate strong and varied interest from investors, EPC and technology partners and offtake purchasers, including potential customers for hydrogen or biofuels . As we drive completion of feasibility studies on these options and adjust the proposed business model for the plant, we are increasingly excited about the impact we can make and the role we can play in development of Teesside's leadership with innovative energy provision in the UK. Our decision last year to defer this project is already giving us the space to gather together an exciting team and to actively engage a range of potential partners in the area. We look forward to providing regular updates on our progress and to sharing more news as we advance as an innovation leader for clean baseload energy and biofuels . "

Further information about the Project

This announcement follows a number of updates made by the Company in respect of the Project. Most recently, as announced on 13 December 2021, and 1 February 2022, whereby the Company announced it had deferred financial close from 2021 and had been actively engaged with Tier 1 EPC companies planning and costing for the front-end engineering design work. This work commenced on schedule in January 2022. Since then, an EPC legal framework has been defined by the Company.

Over the same period, developments in gas and power markets have created new and compelling opportunities for offtake from the plant. As a result, the Company has entered discussions with local, industrial offtake customers for potential provision of a range of syngas-to-power, syngas-to-heat and syngas-to-chemical applications. The Company has also received updated indicative terms for power offtake from three investment grade, bankable power operators, with improved pricing in line with current wholesale electricity market prices. The Company is evaluating these offers in conjunction with the recent syngas-to-chemicals offtake opportunities to find the optimal revenue mix for the Project.

The Project has existing planning permission for advanced thermal conversion and EQTEC's revised planning approval both improves the economics of the Project and reduces the size of the footprint of the plant.

[m4rtinu] 15/2/2022 09:29

RNS: As expected, extension of Land Purchase deadline to allow for greater scope for the eventual plant. This should benefit the company in the long term. ST the share price is being governed by market jitters over Russia/Ukraine and sector negative sentiment. IMO. Cheers. MU.

[pugugly] 15/2/2022 07:41

Jury still very much out = Delays and yet more delays - My come good in the end but not for widows or orphans.

[bradders51] 15/2/2022 07:16

Part of new Arden report:


Given all of this activity, in our view it is positive to see the Billingham land acquisition agreement extended, giving EQTEC the time to fully scope out its project and fully appraise the various potential additional offtake options for the syngas it will generate. This should help the company to maximise project margins and diversify counterparty risk, while also potentially increasing the number of applications of the EQTEC syngas product (hydrogen and biofuels alongside power, heat and chemicals) that Billingham could be able to demonstrate to the wider potential customer universe. We await further updates.

No change to forecasts; our 4.5p DCF-based valuation also remains unchanged.