Epwin Share Discussion Threads

[thorpematt] 13/12/2017 11:36

Yes, that's where I was planning to watch from as well :-)

[lord gnome] 13/12/2017 09:00

Another warning from SFE today. How long before EPWN warn again? I remain highly sceptical. The risk here is to the downside, so I will continue to watch from the sidelines.

[thorpematt] 12/12/2017 23:35

Yes, I think a little shy of 12p this year but a decrease for next year would be prudent and more significant.

I think full impact of this year's issues will be expected for next years resutls (although not necessarily will this occur in full)


Entu, SIG being acquired by another are the probs. Revenue reduction for those is flagged at £25m ish (from £30m total). EBIT exceeding £4m

Not pretty, but ultimatly not end of worls stuff. Problem is brokers downgrade in advance of 2018.

I think this year's is roughly hit-able.

[rcturner2] 12/12/2017 10:48

I would certainly be happy with 10p.

[lord gnome] 08/12/2017 10:00

According to Stockopedia, the market is expecting 12p this year, falling to 10.7p next year. I remain sceptical.

[rcturner2] 08/12/2017 08:52

Does anyone have any idea on the likely full year eps?

Is 9p achievable for example?

[elmfield] 15/11/2017 17:59

Well I sold long ago and am not coming back, no way!

[mattboxy] 15/11/2017 17:21

Why the drop late on

[malcolmmm] 26/10/2017 17:02

Bought back into these this morning the share price has dropped far to low

[dope007] 13/9/2017 16:35

The same I believe.

[speedsgh] 13/9/2017 16:32

What were they called back then, Dope007?

[dope007] 13/9/2017 16:31

Last time this group floated, the owner bought it back

[elmfield] 13/9/2017 15:51

I think this is going the same way as many other failures.
They are not grasping the nettle.

[arf dysg] 13/9/2017 13:39

According to londonstockexchange.com the EPS for year to end of 2016 was 13.85 p/share.

We could have a massive drop in EPS, so it becomes twice today's interims
which would make it 4.4 x 2 = 8.8 p/share, so even after this massive drop, we could buy today on a P/E of 8.

[speedsgh] 13/9/2017 11:59

Plenty of negatives in today's interims...



"Our key RMI market remains subdued"

"significant input cost inflation has been experienced which is a challenge to pass on immediately in a subdued and changing market"

"expecting circa £2.5 million of exceptional cash restructuring costs in the current financial year"

Ongoing uncertainty relating to two customers, each accounting for around 5% of the Group's revenue:
1. "Epwin is currently supplying product on a cash basis to [Entu in administration] and discussions on any future trading relationship are ongoing."..."£3.9 million exceptional bad debt provided in respect of Entu (UK) plc administration"
2. "the other [customer] has sold its plastic distribution business, which is principally supplied by Epwin, to a competitor of Epwin... The position in respect of the other customer has yet to be fully clarified." - seeing as the new owner of this customer is a competitor of Epwin, it would seem highly unlikely that the new owner will continue to source products from Epwin in the long term.

"the Board expects the full year financial performance to 31 December 2017 to be slightly below current market expectations."

"The Board also now expects the financial performance of the Group in the financial year to 31 December 2018 to be lower than the market expectation for the current financial year."

The 9%+ historical yield may be tempting for some in the current “lower for even longer” interest rate environment. The market obviously believes that the dividend will not be sustained longer term. The current situation may in time turn out to have been an opportunity for the brave but there are enough negatives/uncertainty in today's results to keep me firmly on the sidelines until the business & its outlook has stbilised. Aimho.

[egrid1] 13/9/2017 11:55

Danieldruff2 - But Entu is a customer of Epwin, not a competitor. Unless Kennedy sees opportunities for verticle expansion, so taking Epwin out of the supply chain, I cannot see a problem other than a possibility that he can use his inside knowledge to negotiate a better deal with Epwin.

[steviebaby] 13/9/2017 11:30

Arf,

Unless things have changed recently, Brian Kennedy holds 20m EPWN shares which is about 14% of the Company.

So yes, he definitely has an interest in the success of Epwin !!

[westcountryboy] 13/9/2017 11:21

Except that they have already warned on next year's earnings...

[arf dysg] 13/9/2017 11:18

EPS is 4.4p for the half year... does that make 8.8p for the full year?

If P/E=8, that puts the price per share at 70.4p. Ergo, if you buy right now (price=70p/share), you're buying at a P/E of 8.

[this_is_me] 13/9/2017 11:11

Thanks Daniel.

[arf dysg] 13/9/2017 11:08

danieldruff, surely Brian Kennedy is not going to use Entu as a way to harm Epwin's business? If BK helped set up Epwin in the first place, he's probably got an interest in the success of Epwin.

[danieldruff2] 13/9/2017 08:31

Could have been worse but they are being more than a little coy in not mentioning that Brian Kennedy, a key force behind the flotations of Entu and Epwin, is the guy who just bought Entu out of administration

[elmfield] 13/9/2017 07:08

In order to save face they increase the div by just 1 odd percent.
In my view they would have been better to cut by say 15%
Facing reality in the long term might serve the board and shareholders better
in a period of uncertainty.

[danieldruff2] 07/9/2017 18:43

More of interest is how they cope with temporary production overcapacity. I only gave a cursory glance with what went wrong with Entu but looking through a few results RNS it seemed to go like this:

1) We're great
2) Govt changes rules on solar subsidy
3) We have overcapacity
4) We're having a strategic review
5) We're dead