Epwin Share Discussion Threads

[rmillaree] 23/5/2024 14:27

cheers davebowler

it might hinder short term performance at times if they underpaly stuff - but i like sensible cautious steady eddie type updates too the market. I think this note nicely sums up the decent job the board have done here - even if that isnt being reflected in the sharepice much !.

note stockopedia ranks companies to give some indication as to how soundt hey are overall (on financials) and currently this compoany gets a 99 overall rating out of 100. Note stocky is pretty picky ref dishing out 100 scores as there is currently only 1 100 rated company on the screen i have just run . going back a year or two ranking was mostly in 80's.

[davebowler] 23/5/2024 12:48

Zeus-
Continuing to perform Epwin’s AGM statement confirms it is continuing to trade in line with expectations despite the volatile operating environment. Competitors, as well as other building products peers, have warned recently that trading in the first months of 2024 has been below expectations, putting pressure on estimates. The fact Epwin has not warned is testament to how well the business has been managed. It came out of the pandemic in a strong commercial position providing flexibility to manage the business in the best interests of shareholders. This included the management team guiding consensus estimates towards sensible and achievable forecasts. Management have not over promised like many of its peers, and this has started to be reflected in its relative valuation of 8.7x FY24 earnings, 5.1x EV/EBITDA and 5.8% yield. However, on an absolute basis, the shares look good value considering the market leading position of the business, its track record of meeting or beating forecasts, ability to add accretive acquisitions, strong cash generation, conservative balance sheet, generous and well covered yield and gearing into an improving operating environment.  FY24 to date as expected following a strong performance in FY23: Epwin outperformed peers during FY23 and maintained profit guidance despite the weak operating environment and reduction in surcharges as input costs, such a resin, reduced. It should be remembered that it was a year of two halves, with the first six months showing strong revenue on the back of new build completions and surcharges, while the final months of the year saw market demand and pricing reduce. The market trends experienced in H2 ’23 have continued into FY24 and, considering the strong H1’23, it is not a surprise that revenue year to date is down yoy. Despite this, the operational performance of the business continues to improve, helped by cost pressures reducing, underpinning profit expectations for the year. This was reflected in the 140bp improvement in operating profit in FY23.  Forecasts are conservative reflecting the current operating environment: Zeus’ FY24 revenue estimate assumes no growth yoy, which we believe discounts the current market environment into forecasts. Whilst there is further scope for surcharges to fall, their impact will reduce as we move into H2 and the price decline is annualised. Even if revenue is weaker due to reducing surcharges, the reduction in cost pressure should feed through to a higher operating margin offsetting any weakness. The assumption behind current estimates is that revenue and operating margin are at similar levels to those achieved in FY23, assuming little change in market conditions from where we are currently. Despite this, profit before tax is expected to increase by double digits due to financial gearing as the cost of debt reduces on a lower absolute level of debt.  Valuation: Epwin’s share price has performed relatively well since November, rallying from a low of c. 65p back towards c. 90p. Despite this, they remain good value trading on 8.7x FY24 earnings, 5.1x EV/EBITDA and 5.8% yield. This is for a business that has not missed forecasts over the last three years, has only met or beaten expectations, has a strong balance sheet underpinning a high yield and with forecasts that assume no operational growth in the current period with profit growth predicated on reduced finance costs. Management has operated in the best interests of shareholders over the last few years and will no doubt continue to do so.

[faz] 21/5/2024 07:21

reassuring trading update and you'll note the share buyback is discretionary.

[eigthwonder] 10/4/2024 23:27

CEO is on a cushy ride, taking his salary and bonus every year, doesn't have a massive stake in the company; not sure he CBA to stick his neck out. Semi private company

[dozey4] 10/4/2024 19:35

Even at today’s modest prices it is disappointing management can’t see better investment opportunities than buying back EPWN shares. Don’t they see that it decreases liquidity and is an admission of failure?

[mattboxy] 10/4/2024 07:54

Shareholder returns: share buyback and dividend· Share buyback programme commenced to boost shareholder returns:o Initial programme expected to complete todayo Intention to continue programme subject to AGM approval· Dividend per share increased by 8%:o Proposed final dividend of 2.80 pence per share, resulting in a total dividend for 2023 of 4.80 pence per share (2022: 4.45 pence per share)o Increased dividend reflects the positive outlook for the Group and its strong financial position

[mattboxy] 10/4/2024 07:52

Solid results and 4.8p div for the year

[rumbers2] 11/3/2024 22:06

Thanks Tole, good find! You always come up trumps with the relevant information just when it's needed.

[rumbers2] 08/3/2024 08:24

We usually get a trading update during January/early February announcing the date for full year results in April, but they seem to be running late this year.
Epwin's management are usually quite bullish, but with so many companies under-performing of late, my fingers are crossed trading is still in line with expectations.

[mattboxy] 27/11/2023 12:09

Maybe this can push them back into 3 figures ??

[rolo7] 20/9/2023 16:51

Results look good here

[chrisb1103] 04/8/2023 16:21

Best volume today than of many months - maybe sentiment turning positive here? About time tbh

[deadly] 31/7/2023 09:17

Decemt TU today.
Revenues increased to approximately GBP180 million, with the Group continuing to trade ahead of a strong 2022 comparative.

The Group retains a strong balance sheet with covenant net debt at 30 June 2023 remaining low at GBP16.1 million (31 December 2022: GBP17.9 million),

[scepticalinvestor] 28/7/2023 16:34

Bod need to up their game

[scepticalinvestor] 26/7/2023 19:07

Added a few k for a punt today - shld be TU tmrw

[creditcrunchies] 08/6/2023 13:06

All on paper thin volume like 5k one day 20k another. Just needs some good news

[value viper] 23/5/2023 19:40

Must be a seller still / or market has stock to shift - could buy at mid price all day 80% is stock in tight hands Hunch is this is bottom in - famous last words

[deadly] 23/5/2023 19:28

Market doesn't like it though unfortunately, though seems harsh.

[value viper] 23/5/2023 08:17

Cannot really ask for much more than that update all things considered imv.

[rumbers2] 10/5/2023 09:25

Thanks Wild. Ex div v record dates always did get me in a muddle!