Epwin Share Discussion Threads

[astonedt] 18/9/2020 12:09

Read our exclusive Q&A with Zeus Capital's Andy Hanson discussing their interim results, strong demand & how FY21 is looking: www.directorstalk.net/analyst-qa-epwin-group-should-be-able-to-take-market-share-in-fy21-lonepwn/

[davebowler] 10/9/2020 09:25

Zeus; Strong trading post lockdown and reintroduction of forecasts Since the easing of lockdown restrictions, Epwin has seen stronger demand than had been expected. As a result, ZC reintroduces forecasts for FY20 and FY21 based on guidance provided by the Company. This includes a small dividend estimate of 1.0p for FY20 increasing to 2.2p in FY21, it is assumed the 50% pay-out ratio target is reintroduced. Despite seeing an almost 100% closure of the business, and therefore revenue, over an eight-week period, Epwin has not needed to raise additional equity or asked its lenders for covenant waivers. This is in stark contrast to many of its peers in the building product space and is testament to the strong financial management of the business. Our assumption that volumes will be 15% down in FY21, relative to FY19, looks conservative and puts the shares on a recovery rating of c. 17x with a dividend that will grow in line with earnings. § Strength of the business highlighted by management’s confidence to reinstate guidance: Epwin has dealt with the COVID-19 situation and the resulting lockdown professionally, managing the business in the best interests of shareholders. It had low gearing going into lockdown, significant financing headroom and hasn’t needed a waiver on its covenants, let alone a rescue rights issue. Since restrictions began to ease in late-May, consumer demand, both RMI and DIY, across the building product sector has been materially stronger than expected. For Epwin, this has meant +ve L4L revenue performance in both July and August. This improved visibility on trading aligned to the financial strength of the business is allowing the management team to reinstate guidance at an earlier stage than most peers in the sector. § ZC forecasts better than expected: Estimates are reinstated for the current year to December and FY21. In FY20, revenue is expected to be down 19% yoy at £228.3m (FY19: £282.1m) following a 33% decline in H1. We assume H2 is marginally down yoy, a conservative approach considering the positive performance in July and August. Operating profit of £6.8m for FY20 shows a recovery to c. £8.5m in H2, c. 65% of the level achieved in H219. A very good performance in the circumstances. Net debt will increase marginally at c. £20.0m falling from a peak of c. £30.0m in March. FY21 is predicated on conservative estimates, assuming volumes are in line with the average current forecasts from the CPA and Experian for private housing RMI to be down c. 15% in 2021 relative to 2019. This is conservative, not just in quantum of the fall in the market, but also no outperformance is assumed despite the new products Epwin has brought to market. § Valuation does not reflect recovery potential: On conservative FY21 earnings, Epwin is trading on a recovery rating of 17.0x and a pre IFRS 16 EV/EBITDA of 8.7x. In addition, estimates factor in a small but recovering dividend from FY20 with the shares yielding 2.9% in FY21. On normalised FY19 earnings Epwin trades on sub 8.0x.

[dope007] 25/8/2020 13:37

Profine expand capacity in the UK hxxps://www.profine-group.com/en/news-and-media/#!/press-releases/profine-strengthens-its-position-in-the-uk-market-with-an-acquisition

[dope007] 25/8/2020 09:12

AIM stock so don't expect anything unless a takeover comes in

[bennya] 25/8/2020 09:04

This has got to rerate soon, numbers look solid and performing well. Half year results on 10th Sept so hopefully will start to see this climb. GLA

[pj84] 10/8/2020 18:43

Just reposting link hTTps://www.directorstalk.net/epwin-group-deliver-a-better-than-expected-performance-analyst-interview/

[astonedt] 10/8/2020 08:07

Better than expected performance from Epwin - Zeus Capital interview: hxxps://www.directorstalk.net/epwin-group-deliver-a-better-than-expected-performance-analyst-interview/

[sphere25] 06/8/2020 08:27

Another decent update: New build slow but steadily increasing with RMI being strong enough to have sales ahead of expectations. Importantly, the recovery is continuing into July and August: "..with very strong demand for PVC profiles in June, continuing throughout July and into August." Confident on the financial front too: "The Board has not sought to increase these bank facilities further nor access other sources of funding, as it believes its available cash and facility headroom provides sufficient liquidity and flexibility to pursue its strategic objectives. The Group met its banking covenants as at 30 June 2020 and does not currently anticipate needing to seek any variation to these pre-Covid-19 measurements." The bad news looks more than baked in here. Have to wait and see if the market begins a re-rating soon.

[dope007] 08/7/2020 20:39

In this industry Cheshire Epwin are one of the strongest. Their problem is being on the AIM mkt!!

[cheshire] 08/7/2020 16:31

Another possible winner could be Safestyle (SFE)

[cheshire] 08/7/2020 16:28

I have bought EPWIN today, looks like the government support announced today will have a very positive effect IMHO.

[farrugia] 08/7/2020 10:10

this company could possibly benefit from the new government scheme? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53313640 which others might benefit?

[farrugia] 03/6/2020 13:59

bought here too but seems quiet so far

[sphere25] 28/5/2020 11:51

Nice update. Surprised the stock hasn't moved on that. Had a nice trade in this recently. Market looked precarious a short while back so took profits. Turned out to be a good move with the stock retracing significantly from 83p to 69p currently. Wider market is clearly pricing in a cure now with regular news on numerous vaccines. Struggling to see how else all the recent moves can be justified e.g. TRN. With that in mind tempted to re-enter here and watching for a break of 70. Financially secure, resuming operations and a gradual recovery in demand suggests there is cause for some optimism. Not suggesting that means a move back to the highs around 120, but surely an argument for testing the recent highs at 83p. A more solid company rather than some of the recent higher risk short term speculative ones I have highlighted. One to keep an eye on.

[davebowler] 28/5/2020 09:06

Zeus- Resumption of operations Epwin has announced that its manufacturing and distribution sites have restarted operations over the last few weeks with all main operating sites open by the end of this week. This is in line with other building product manufacturers, merchants and construction businesses. Demand has steadily begun to pick up as construction sites have started to return and, whilst it is still early days, should continue to increase as lockdown restrictions continue to be eased. Epwin will cautiously ramp operations to meet enhanced levels of demand. Cash management within the business has been good with funding headroom remaining at c. £45.0m, in line with the level announced at the end of March. Epwin remains well placed to weather the current environment better than most other building product companies, having managed its balance sheet conservatively. The restarting of operations is a welcome step towards normality and will hopefully lead to the restatement of guidance over the coming weeks. Manufacturing and distribution sites resuming operations: During May the number of distribution sites has steadily increased from the handful that remained supplying customers that had continued to operate. The main production facilities have also been reopening over the last three weeks and all sites will be back in production by the end of this week. Government health and safety protocols are being adhered to and the resumption is in line with construction sector generally, several peers having already indicated that operations would be returning during May. The statement clearly indicates that supply will only start to increase as demand comes through limiting the potential for increased levels of cash consumption. Managing the return will be difficult for the industry over the next few weeks as the potential for pent up demand to initially overstate the strength of the market is a potential issue. Some will deal with this better than most and we would expect Epwin to manage the process well operationally. Strong control of the cash flow: Headroom of £45.0m on the debt facilities of £75.0m is the same level as that announced at the end of March. A strong performance considering the near complete shutdown the construction sector experienced during April and the early part of May. Epwin had previously highlighted that its facilities would allow the business to withstand a complete shut down of six months, materially longer than looks to be playing out. The current indicated net debt position of c. £30.0m is c. 1.1x net debt, pre-lease adjustments.

[sphere25] 01/5/2020 17:07

Edison update today: https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/business-resilience-and-appropriate-actions/26738/ Been lobbing this and derisking across the board into these moves (as per profile disclosure). Wider markets look very precarious at the moment and Trump isn't helping with his comments on China.

[sphere25] 28/4/2020 15:15

Bang! Up another 11% This is fun!

[sphere25] 27/4/2020 13:03

Nice initial move with the stock popping 11%

[basem1] 27/4/2020 12:35

Also love SOM but do not tell everyone as I have not a proper position there as yet

[basem1] 27/4/2020 12:33

Yes I've bought this morning. ALU also very similar background and sector Also like VNET and ULS in small cap space. All these stocks were dividend payers before C19 and all trading around 35% or more lower than before C19 All nice buy hold and await normality

[sphere25] 27/4/2020 12:26

Finally have some bigger interest here. Some whopping big buys hitting the book for this stock. Stock could be setting up for a rally now.

[sphere25] 15/4/2020 15:41

Careful. Mr Market has changed bowler.

[rumbers2] 09/4/2020 18:39

Thanks sphere I appreciate your advice. Managing the 'exit strategy' on these day trades in reality means being transfixed to the screen all day. I don't think i could keep that up for long. The lions' share of my pot is still available to invest in the event we do plumb new lows. That might not happen as you say- so looking at solid, well managed companies -preferably with little debt- to buy into long term at these crazy valuations. That's where you have been very helpful. You have a great sixth sense for sniffing out these gems. Perhaps you were a champion terrier in a previous incarnation. Nothing goes unnoticed on your watch!

[sphere25] 09/4/2020 17:01

Thank you rumbers2 (Is there a rumbers1 and rumbers? ;-)) The volatility in this market has been exceptional and we have broken the record set back in 2008 with the VIX going to vertical. It was bonkers back then, and some of the moves of late have been just as nutty, if not more at times. We live in a new age and the machines have a tendency to almost completely go out of control at times, once the orders are pulled on one side, and the momentum and panic to sell on the other takes over. This all naturally leads to opportunities for short term traders, but at the same time make sure you are taking profits along the way because (as per your comment on Easter) even 30 minutes in this market can drastically change positions. OTB the other day went from 213 to 223 and back to 200 in a flash. The next day it moves another 10% in a flash and then up over 25% and look at today's move too. There are so many of these examples. These 10% moves are almost nothing now and the new norm. If you're longer term, it's a different story, but even for longer term holders, there will be a temptation to trade some of these moves. Just make sure you are disciplined and get out quick if it goes against you. When you said "adventurous", I thought I better post to make sure you or anyone reads my posts or anyone else's isn't getting too excited and taking on board too much exposure or risk. Discipline and risk management first, slow and steady wins the race. We have to be ultra careful out there. The longer term holders will reap the rewards for sure but from a shorter term view, these swings could wipe people out easily. So yes there is a case to follow people on ADVFN where you can then see the posts on your Follow Feed, but at the same time making sure that you're still doing things your way and making sure what works for you. Well done on SDY and your other current trades. Alot of these beaten down stocks were oversold to the nth degree and had to bounce so hopefully we can continue next week, but at the same time always be prepared for the downside and exit strategy if the wider market does begin to fall away again. We clearly have more optimism when looking at the numbers from the virus, but at the same time nobody really knows how it plays out or whether it springs up again at some point. It's just too uncertain. The amusing thing is that we are seeing more and more commentators and Wall Street Banks saying sell this move higher and that a retest of the bottom is coming...perhaps that means many have missed the bottom and are keen buyers on any weakness in trying to talk the market down? Ultimately, even though the US charts are making more bullish moves, it's very difficult to know where we are in a week or a month so be careful and if things aren't going the right way, it probably means you're being too adventurous and it's time for a reset :-)