Epe Special Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[horndean eagle] 01/11/2018 12:38

LUCE is a modest part of the pot now. Director buying does seem a little bit staged but have a look at how well whittards is doing. Its worth a huge premium to what its in the books at. As i said. they are not total idiots.

[value hound] 01/11/2018 10:34

Shares have been on a good run, LUCE up a bit today and directors buying, close to £37m in cash versus mkt cap of £49m.

OTOH, horrible spread as ever, no yield, and overly-wedded to LUCE's fortunes, so you've pretty much got to trust them for the longer term.

Feeling smug as I bought at what I thought was the low, then averaged down at the absolute nadir (I think). But it may be a tad early to call victory!

[spectoacc] 01/10/2018 08:53

Lo facciamo davvero

[value hound] 01/10/2018 08:46

Maybe they mean 'new deals' on LUCE!? :-)

Speriamo di no

[spectoacc] 01/10/2018 08:11

+11p on NAV isn't bad but be lucky to get +5p on share price (or zero!). Of more interest I thought was:

"ESO intends to use the capital returned for new deals."

That implies to me that they may not be punting the cash on yet more LUCE, which would surely be a good thing.

[value hound] 01/10/2018 07:52

Almost 26p uplift on NAV (since the interims) - 11.16pps uplift from disposal of PCL -.nice news this morning.

[spectoacc] 28/9/2018 08:48

There is that argument - but bear in mind EPE have been using some of that cash to buy more LUCE! If you think they're wrong, and that LUCE may go pop, then definitely don't buy either.

[value hound] 28/9/2018 08:29

Because if LUCE goes pear-shaped, you're left with a load of cash and what are hopefully good investments left, so your shirt remains largely on your back.

[spectoacc] 28/9/2018 08:23

Glad I never bought - but good luck holders.

They bought more LUCE (DIA warned today I see, though arguably for co-specific reasons), but if you think LUCE is going to go up - why not buy LUCE? Can't see any rationale for buying EPE other than the discount - which is always there.

Eg if LUCE goes nowhere, EPE goes nowhere. If LUCE doubles, EPE goes up by what, maybe a quarter if lucky? Hence buy LUCE, not the bag of rubbish that is EPE.

[value hound] 28/9/2018 08:10

Undervalued, more than half value (57%) in cash and some excellent-looking prospects, overall v.low ebitda multiple ... BUT, we're still overly-wedded to LUCE and dependent on its performance.

[horndean eagle] 29/8/2018 10:29

I know what you mean. I might ask the question if I ever get to speak to any of the other directors. the chairman is equally evasive.

[topvest] 14/8/2018 20:13

Don't you think its suspicious / at least a bit odd that he is so evasive...has he something to hide? Look at the Luceco annual report, EPE annual report, EPIC web-site, Luceco web-site etc. and you will see what I mean.

[horndean eagle] 14/8/2018 19:45

Giles is hard work to track down. Doesn't take calls etc. Almost mythical like creature. Board and the company need a shake up. It was absolutely crazy for them not to have banked a fair chunk of their LUCE position in the high 200s given how outsized it became in portfolio. ESO shouldn't be investing in businesses on p/e multiples of 20+

[topvest] 14/8/2018 19:33

I've been looking at Luceco and this, but have held off for now. Anyone got the run down on Giles Brand. He seems to have a reasonable record, but there are a couple of points that seem a bit odd / could be red flags:
1. Transparency. Over-complex structure and opaque PE structure suggests to me that there is a big carried interest where management are stripping out quite a bit of value.
2. Giles Brand refuses to ever have his picture taken...very odd. Please let me know if you can spot a picture of him anywhere in the public domain as I couldn't? Maybe the guy is just ugly / very shy but its a bit secretive & odd don't you think for a big hitter!
Interested if anyone knows better.

[spectoacc] 14/8/2018 15:35

Ironically, the rise in LUCE seems to have initially been caused by.... EPE buying more in the market! See 3rd August RNS's.

In terms of liquidity, would have to fancy LUCE over EPE, but the discount is pretty reasonable.

[hiddendepths] 14/8/2018 14:48

Luceco picking up. Maybe something is afoot!

Can't be bad for EPE if it continues...

[spectoacc] 20/7/2018 07:55

Took both off watchlist but just glanced at LUCE's share price - down to 40p, not looking healthy.

I still say EPE's overvalued, even with them nudging lows. I've also just spotted this from the end of March, seemingly showing I was wrong on P2U (I'm not, see more below, but they have found a greater fool):


"EPE Special Opportunities plc ("ESO plc", or the "Company") announces that Pharmacy2U Limited ("P2U"), a company in which it has a minority investment via ESO Investments 1 LP ("ESO 1 LP"), has raised a further GBP40 million of new growth capital to support the rapid expansion of its online NHS repeat prescription service.

P2U is England's leading online NHS pharmacy and is the fastest growing pharmacy group in the country, with 25,000 new patient registrations in the last month alone and year-on-year growth in patient numbers of 178%.

As well as offering consumers increased choice and convenience, P2U's online prescription management service is highly beneficial for the healthcare economy, saving GPs an estimated six hours and 40 minutes a week on paperwork. It is estimated that managing repeat prescriptions online could save the NHS over GBP300 million per year on prescription costs.

The growth capital raise was led by G Square Capital, a European private equity firm focussed on the healthcare sector. In conjunction with the new investment, G Square Capital also acquired a majority of the share capital of P2U from existing shareholders and as a result is now the majority shareholder.

The new investment will allow P2U to invest further in technology infrastructure to support customer demand and remain at the forefront of innovation in digital pharmacy services. P2U's state-of-the-art, award winning dispensing facility in Leeds is already the largest and most technologically advanced in the United Kingdom, with the ability to dispense one million prescription items per month.

ESO 1 LP has realised 50% of its existing investment in P2U in the transaction, implying a 2.0x Money Multiple realised return. The transaction was completed at a premium to the holding value of P2U. The remaining 50% of ESO 1 LP's investment has been retained to benefit from the growth potential in P2U offered by the GBP40 million investment. This retained investment offers further upside in terms of Money Multiple returns to ESO 1 LP "


So - they managed to get out of half their stake in the dire P2U, at a premium to book, and have now valued the remaining half higher, to reflect the greater fool pumping in more money "..From the growth potential.." of the extra cash.

Now read:


Potential to deliver 700k prescriptions a month, pushed up to 1m a month, actually doing 200k a month.

Still, if they keep finding greater fools... Amazon next perhaps?

Hats off to EPE for getting an exit at all at P2U, and even if remaining stake went to zero, they'll have had their money back. But all is already reflected in the 208p NAV, battered by the performance of LUCE. They could do with a greater fool there too.

[manfrommoyse] 06/3/2018 10:46

dont forget that they have >8M of unsecured loan notes, plus the 3+M of bank debt the underlying partnerships hold.
Buy back also not poss because closed period. And if share price drops further they get better value.
Suspect new man at LUCE is kitchen sinking so p/w may not come in threes unless market remains weak or weakens.
Discount not big enough on ESO once net cash is taken into account, but it might get there
Nibbled at LUCE in hope that makes the share price drop (application of sod's law hopefully in my favour!)

[spectoacc] 06/3/2018 09:06

Jeez what an RNS.

"About that buy-back..."

"LUCE, it's great really"

"Our NAV's still quite high - if you value LUCE at 77p"


Not sure why I'd buy ESO over LUCE if I believed that RNS. If I didn't believe it I wouldn't buy either.

[iantrader2] 31/1/2018 07:29

A stonking gamble Mammy

[mammyoko] 30/1/2018 11:22

Way over-valued. When LUCE goes down the toilet all they will have is 80p a share cash and some assorted sh1t. Stonking sell

[arthur_lame_stocks] 27/1/2018 16:32

I reckon these might be worth a punt now. The market cap is about £48m at this price.

At the last set of results they had over £30m in cash plus the LUCE stake must still be worth a bit over £30m and then there are the other investments of unknown worth.

I think LUCE is close to the bottom and now looks pretty good value to me so this could be a decent, discounted and safer way to take a punt on a recovery in LUCE's fortunes.