Epe Special Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 25/1/2018 08:47

LUCE down to 87p, wonder what ESO's NAV is down to now.

[spectoacc] 05/1/2018 07:05

I agree re LUCE (other than "profit warnings come in 3's") but I don't like the illiquidity, the reliance on LUCE/cash (some of which is now being spent on buyback) or my knowledge of what P2U is like (have no idea about Whittards/other holdings). Just feels like the previous huge discount was wholly justified.

[horndean eagle] 04/1/2018 20:39

Discount is still very large. Fall is a huge over reaction. Whittards has been a bit of a dog for years but they seem pretty excited about it recently. You seem to be writing off LUCE. It has a very good track record. If this accounting issue proves to be a one off the re-rating will be pretty sharp. Also ESO valuation multiples are listed in its valuation methodology and seem pretty conservative. Just as they were when they have been writing up LUCE over the years

[arthur_lame_stocks] 04/1/2018 18:06

I considered these after the recent fall but don't think there is much point. The discount is not now very large and LUCE looks fairly valued to me.

I checked out the accounts of Whittards and they don't look to be worth much so unless these drop to £1.50 I don't think i'll bother. They probably won't do now they are buying back shares. You appeat to be reliant on the investing expertise of Giles Brand and i'm not sure he is all that good tbh.

Arthur

[spectoacc] 04/1/2018 08:47

Share buy-back should help it. Needs LUCE to turn the corner tho.

[spectoacc] 29/12/2017 14:20

Fair point - with LUCE lower, the cash makes up a much larger % of the NAV. Any guesses on current NAV? They should be telling us soon but it'll already be out of date of course.

The cash went into P2U in conjunction with the merger with Chem Direct (another big loss-maker) - is possible the scale will save them but £10m is a lot when margins (NHS prescriptions) are so low, and marketing spend so high. We'll see - would be very interesting if they tried to float it, along the "technical disrupters" line (putting local pharmacies out of business). Would need a few years of actually making money before they'd dare try that, and then a lot of bad history to get past.

[horndean eagle] 29/12/2017 14:03

I wouldn't massively focus too much on financials re p2u. Once these private equity guys are involved the accounting usually turns a bit dodgy. Not always easy to work out whats going on. That 3rd party funding round was external so it wasn't ESO putting in the cash. That 3rd party funding was put in mid way through last reportable accounts so those investing must have been reasonably aware of what was going on balance sheet wise. Will probably see a pretty different set of results next time around. Id argue there is some pretty strategic value within p2u even in its current form. It has a lot of data and conducts issues prescriptions online. Any large player looking to get into the space would pay for its customer base.

Not sure you could ask for the same discount post LUCE fall. Cash is a huge slug of nav.

[spectoacc] 29/12/2017 12:27

Thanks @HE. LUCE p/w rather spoiled the "massive discount" argument for ESO - wonder what NAV is with LUCE at 112p? I've not tried to work it out, but guessing that to restore the previous discount, ESO need to be way lower than here.

Re P2U - they had a great business initially, made a lot of money, but now loss-making. They may get there with sufficient scale but to say I wouldn't touch it with a sh*tty stick is an understatement. Having Andy Hornby involved only adds to that feeling. NHS work used to be a gold mine, now it's more like a salt mine. The negative press of their business practices (previously censured for selling patient data etc) can't help. Not sure why someone like ESO saw it as a good place for their money.

Fair to say I know more about P2U than I do about ESO. What worries me is that I know more about P2U than ESO do :)

Agree re LUCE - time will tell whether it's "profit warnings come in 3's" or a short-term blip.

[horndean eagle] 29/12/2017 12:15

Valid points your raise. However in defence:-

External party injected cash into p4u at the valuation that ESO hold their stake. It was a sizeable injection so I would be fairly happy its not a mickey mouse number they are using. It is fast growing and in a particularly exciting growth area.

Their track record on valuations has generally been pretty conservative. LUCE was held at a very conservative valuation throughout its rapid growth phase.

Their long term track record is pretty impressive. They have a lot of skin in the game.

Hopefully LUCE issues are a one off. Looks very cheap if that is indeed the case.

[spectoacc] 28/12/2017 07:26

Luceco profit-warned the day before the MoneyWeek article on ESO. Also a mention of the stake in Pharmacy2U, whose accounts are well worth a look - they seem to only keep going IMO by endless cash injections, £10m last one I saw, & merging with others.

I'm usually a big fan of heavy discounts, particularly on p/e ITs. Have never, even once, been tempted by ESO - they seem to be mugs, something I concluded when looking into who on earth was pumping more money into Pharmacy2U (who have had a lot of negative comment over their habit of mailshotting the elderly with letters using the NHS logo - nothing illegal, but plenty of comment online about it).

Still - everything has its price I guess, & I know little about the other holdings other than knowing that the NAV discount has come in considerably thanks to LUCE!

From 15th Dec (LUCE closed at 112p yesterday):

"EPE Special Opportunities plc
Net Asset Value
The Directors of EPE Special Opportunities plc ("ESO plc", or the "Company") note the fall in the Luceco plc share price following a trading announcement this morning.
As previously disclosed (including in the full year ESO plc Report and Accounts released 3 April 2017), any change in the Luceco plc share price will impact the ESO plc Net Asset Value.
Should the Luceco plc share price close today at 145.0 pence per ordinary share, the estimated ESO plc fully diluted Net Asset Value will be 315.57 pence per ordinary share.
The end of December 2017 ESO plc fully diluted Net Asset Value will be confirmed in due course. "

Not sure where that leaves the ESO NAV now, but with certain things in it I'd discount completely, and LUCE having gone lower, I can't see ESO as a bargain.

[esmith3] 15/12/2017 11:38

Tipped again in Moneyweek today!

"EPE trades on a sizeable discount to its net asset value, the bulk of which is comprised of a 24% stake in Luceco, a leading UK LED lighting business that is growing strongly". etc etc

[hiddendepths] 23/10/2017 12:23

Tipped in Moneyweek.

[ntv] 07/7/2017 12:53

asset value increased again
discount is large

[robizm] 05/7/2017 20:15

The performance fee is a bit hard to swallow. Anything over 8% investment adv gets 20%

[ntv] 23/5/2017 18:30

discount is rather large for a fund that appears to be doing well

[horndean eagle] 23/5/2017 10:41

About time the share price responded to nav growth. I can't fathom why the IM has been so tight with the cash. Could have brought a lot more stock back sub 270p. Struggle to see how they are going to deploy all that cash any time soon.

[josels] 12/11/2011 22:15

Hectorp - 11 Nov'11 - 10:18 - 12223 of 12243


Down...
( edited - reason is probably being Ex Divi) So that 'plus' is now out of the share till next year.
Have reduced /sold traders at POG at a loss of 4p today with a view to going overweight in Kurdish oil, ( note today's 13% rise in GKP and 10% in PCI, both of which I hold). I've resolved to steer clear of POG until close to the January update. There seems no point trading what is generally just following the Dow. IF POG resumes the upside trendline earlier than Jan-March, then I'd return.
MML remains my main gold interest ( I bought from 16p ) but I have five others, eg HMB KYS Shanta etc, and two silver. Notice that Silver Wheaton has tripled its dividend, making it hugely attractive for Funds.
However MML won't do much either for the next few months, and I took profits there a couple of days ago with a vew to trade back in, again in 2-3 months.
H.

[josels] 16/10/2011 19:10

Hectorp - 16 Oct'11 - 12:21 - 10883 of 10890

I have been disconnected for the last 3 days very much of the developments in the world as I am concentrating in a new job.
The idea of a bail out fund by the IMF is not new, and I don't think it is closed to agreement, so more volatility ahead. I will not be surprised to see the indexes down next week till the agreement is reached.

IMHO gold will moved upwards by fear of the rich to the mob (class war), and not by the 2 trillion IMF programe. The 2 trillion IMF progamme is bad news for gold IMHO.

If the IMF has two 2 trillions, they could buy bonds to a discount , and the money raised by the sellers of the bonds will need to move somewhere else, probably to finance the bonds issued by the rest of the IMF affiliated countries to buy the PIGS bonds For instance pension plans will sell PIGS downgraded bonds (as they need to comply with their own internal standards regarding where to invest their money), to buy the AAA, AA+ bonds issued by other IMF members to buy the PIGS bonds. Therefore I don't think the 2 trillion IMF programme bring new money from the printing press (but it gives the possiblity to the debt and fiat to change hands).


The money printing is coming only from the UK as already declared by the BCE. UK has one of the largest inflation rates in the OCDE due to QE. So is good to own assets rather than £



josels - 16 Oct'11 - 18:35 - 10892 of 10892 edit


How the world economy works? I have been thinking about that, commodities are extracted, and consumer products are consumed, in the middle we have the industries. What happens in the whole process is what interests me. Is nett wealth created in the process? Are there more assets at the end of the process? Resources are consumed (those are the real wealth) and wastage is produced to keep us all alive (all produced assets degrade, buildings, cars, all except gold and many other commodities in the ground), so IMHO in the very long term, as the time passes the world is pourer because commodities are consumed and assets degrade. We are going towards a much poorer world as commodities come to an end, unless technology is able to produce very cheap electricity in a massive scale, may be nuclear fission? I hope so. If that was the case oil would crash.


SO my thesis is that the world is in crisis because the commodities have been going up for a while, more fiat chasing less commodities, mean less standard of living ie clashes as people revolt. There is a great risk of massive political changes in the western wall (hard labour policies are a great possibility the world as resources become more scarce, they will ration the food, clothes....as during the great war).


The mob has strong appeal to the masses and can move the gold market very quickly upwards. I believe that physical gold will benefit tremendously short term with all that news in the TV of massive protests worldwide, the richer must be thinking to buy gold....

For these reasons I am very bullish in gold specially in the short term (next week). I don't believe that central banks will be selling gold soon because gold reserves would pay only for a small % of the debt, and that new money will do nothing in the long term, before selling or defaulting they would need to have a sustainable budget. But after all I may be wrong, so guaranteed stop losses a good bet, even though they don't allow to track the price, ie one need to be attached to the screen to carry on moving the stop loss up? well hopefully it keeps moving upwards :)

End to my divagations, lets see what the market does tonight,

[josels] 16/10/2011 19:04

josels - 16 Oct'11 - 17:51 - 10891 of 10892 edit


Hectorp - 16 Oct'11 - 12:21 - 10883 of 10890

I have been disconnected for the last 3 days very much of the developments in the world as I am concentrating in a new job.
The idea of a bail out fund by the IMF is not new, and I don't think it is closed to agreement, so more volatility ahead. I will not be surprised to see the indexes down next week till the agreement is reached.

If the IMF has two 2 trillions, they could buy bonds to a discount , and the money raised by the sellers of the bonds will need to move somewhere else, probably to finance the bonds issued by the rest of the IMF affiliated countries to buy the PIGS bonds For instance pension plans will sell PIGS downgraded bonds (as they need to comply with their own internal standards regarding where to invest their money), to buy the AAA, AA+ bonds issued by other IMF members to buy the PIGS bonds. Therefore I don't think the 2 trillion IMF programme bring new money from the printing press (but it gives the possiblity to the debt and fiat to change hands).

The money printing is coming only from the UK as already declared by the BCE. UK has one of the largest inflation rates in the OCDE due to QE. So is good to own assets rather than £



josels - 16 Oct'11 - 18:35 - 10892 of 10892 edit


How the world economy works? I have been thinking about that, commodities are extracted, and consumer products are consumed, in the middle we have the industries. What happens in the whole process is what interests me. Is nett wealth created in the process? Are there more assets at the end of the process? Resources are consumed (those are the real wealth) and wastage is produced to keep us all alive (all produced assets degrade, buildings, cars, all except gold and many other commodities in the ground), so IMHO in the very long term, as the time passes the world is pourer because commodities are consumed and assets degrade. We are going towards a much poorer world as commodities come to an end, unless technology is able to produce very cheap electricity in a massive scale, may be nuclear fission? I hope so. If that was the case oil would crash.


SO my thesis is that the world is in crisis because the commodities have been going up for a while, more fiat chasing less commodities, mean less standard of living ie clashes as people revolt. There is a great risk of massive political changes in the western wall (hard labour policies are a great possibility the world as resources become more scarce, they will ration the food, clothes....as during the great war).


The mob has strong appeal to the masses and can move the gold market very quickly upwards. I believe that physical gold will benefit tremendously short term with all that news in the TV of massive protests worldwide, the richer must be thinking to buy gold....

For these reasons I am very bullish in gold specially in the short term (next week). I don't believe that central banks will be selling gold soon because gold reserves would pay only for a small % of the debt, and that new money will do nothing in the long term, before selling or defaulting they would need to have a sustainable budget. But after all I may be wrong, so guaranteed stop losses a good bet, even though they don't allow to track the price, ie one need to be attached to the screen to carry on moving the stop loss up? well hopefully it keeps moving upwards :)

End to my divagations, lets see what the market does tonight,

[josels] 09/10/2011 19:27

josels - 9 Oct'11 - 19:13 - 10581 of 10581 edit


volvo
very possible, POG has been outperforming from the middle of last week, THis will go +10% in a day, anyday, if insiders have good news.
if markets behaves I agree £7 next week very very probable if the production is going well

I am optimist with POG, worth a limited risk IMHO; garanteed stop loss worthwhile as:

"Any compromise could still be foiled as the Slovak government struggles to overcome differences to approve enhancements to the bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. "




tuesday key vote



it seems that the oposition in slovakia is in favour of the bailout fund, so it will most probably be approved by slovakia, but the coalliation forming the goverment may not be united in teh vote TBC., it appears the situation is similar to Germany when Merkel was facing loosing the vote of her own party and the support of the opposition.

[josels] 23/9/2011 22:44

The 4 year cycle suggest a bottom in 2012...
See also..