Ensor Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 05/12/2013 11:28

davidosh

The report details one-off activity that most companies would split out and report as exceptionals. Specifically:
- rationalisation of the Technocover business
- Ellard relocation to Manchester Airport City Enterprise Zone
- I understand Ensor head office has also moved to the MACEZ
I can understand ESR not wanting to "waste" money on broker reports but I have pointed out to them that IMHO breaking out these true exceptionals would have given a fairer reflection of ESR's H1 performance... ...and I suggested they be detailed in the FY results.

Sticking a finger in the air, I would have thought that it would be reasonable to estimate the associated one-off costs as say £150-250k. If ESR had reported numbers as such then H1 adjusted EPS would compare rather better with last year... ...even with Technocover having had an underwhelming H1.

Today's RNS gives no real details on what may be happening P/L-wise in terms of H2, but is very positive about Technocover for 2014/15. As such, with all the other businesses strengthening, I would expect to see underlying 2014/15 EPS well above the 5.5p reported for 2012/13, with the likelihood of a positive exceptional associated with the profit on selling the land in Stockport.

All IMHO, DYOR.

Cheers, Martin

[shanklin] 05/12/2013 09:35

On the cash flow front, its worth remembering that £290k was spent on share buybacks at what now look like bargain prices.

[davidosh] 05/12/2013 09:34

This is a classic long term holder versus shorter term trading investor position following news that was not expected allied with clear confidence from management that the skies are getting brighter and their honesty in prose and numbers generally favours the longer term investor.

The significant increase in dividend, orderflow at Technocover, other divisions firing well and land deals to come in 2014 all bode well for the New Year onwards. I accept that those who have recently bought will be disappointed but as with pets bought for Christmas Ensor is to keep not trade for me.

The cashflow and very progressive dividends show a good healthy well run company delivering for long term shareholders

I will report further later in the day as I have an Agm to attend this morning.

[wjccghcc] 05/12/2013 09:26

With building markets improving and Technocover's strong order book now beginning to flow through into revenues, it does look like next year could be very strong. Happy to hold and add if it hits 60p.

Also, look at the cash-flow.

[rp19] 05/12/2013 09:17

Disappointing and wasn't expecting that on the back of the recent rise. Back at my buy-in price now. Holding for now. Obviously the numbers are key and we can't get away from that but I think quite a lot of the narrative of the results read fairly positively in terms of outlook. Be interesting to hear the views of others.

[kneecaps2] 05/12/2013 08:55

Luckily i sold 10000 last week@77 and 5000 today@72.I expect they will hit 60p before they rise above 70p again.

[jamielein] 05/12/2013 08:35

Good luck bb2. Hopefully you're right but for my own sanity I'd rather sit on the sidelines :)

Seems like I have a similar philosophy to Steg. I also prefer companies that are consistently beating or at least meeting expectations, and EPS is growing.

I was very disappointed by the results because I had expected growth in profit rather than a reduction. The large increase recently was probably based on similar expectations, and we're now back to where we started November. I think these may have further down to go, however I've never been a good predictor of short-term movements.

From a fundamentals perspective, if they make the same 2.7p in H2 as last year, they'll have EPS of 4.5p this year, putting them on a PE of about 15 for this year. My problem is that I don't know what a fair PE is, which is why I'm uncomfortable holding.

As a long term holder, you won't be concerned with the odd few pence here and there and hopefully this will turn out to be a very good long-term top-up opportunity for you. I've only been in Ensor for about 6 months, so I can't class myself as a long term holder, although I did have long term intentions!

I may be back in the future, but it'd have to be on a more positive sounding RNS.

Good luck to everyone who holds here.

Regards,
Jamie

[battlebus2] 05/12/2013 08:24

Yes i'm not surprised to see sellers on the news but as i know this company well and have been in from 15p my outlook will ofcourse be different.

[stegrego] 05/12/2013 08:19

I don't do profit warnings and misses so that's why I've sold. Longer term may be ok, but I'd rather be in companies that meet or beat and have rising eps.

[battlebus2] 05/12/2013 08:16

Well i've done the opposite and added more, although the headline profit figure disappoints they will reap the rewards next year. Some positives like the cash balance and other than Technocover the rest of the business is performing well. Also the property sale in 2014. As a longer term holder on a double digit dividend i'm really pleased to see them stick to their progressive dividend policy. I'm also very confident of management to delivery shareholder value they could surprise any day with an acquisition.Good luck all those selling but with small illiquid companies like ESR you'll probably pay more than your selling price to get back in.

[jamielein] 05/12/2013 08:05

I've also sold my holding here. I don't like uncertainty, and I was expecting a fall of this magnitude. It's just a shame so much paper profit was wiped out.

[stegrego] 05/12/2013 08:04

Looks like that spike up in recent days will vanish, as it clearly wasn't warranted.

I've sold the small holding I had as this is finger in the air stuff to value now.

[wilmdav] 05/12/2013 08:00

Shanklin

My take exactly

[shanklin] 05/12/2013 07:51

It sounds like there are quite a lot of costs which other companies would have called exceptionals whereas ESR just gives one the net numbers with no gloss/spin.

They also refer to a couple of property sales which I presume will be quite lucrative but again they make them sound as routine and boring as anything.

Overall it sounds like they expect next year to be quite decent.

Whether any of that helps the share price today??????

[jamielein] 05/12/2013 07:45

Not exactly what I was hoping for either.

The 25% increase in dividend may placate some holders though.

[stegrego] 05/12/2013 07:38

I guess no forecasts means they don't have to issue a trading update when they are going to miss expectations......

Statement isn't exactly war and peace either.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 09:13

Looks like another good day to come.

[battlebus2] 21/11/2013 14:00

And again today lovely new highs.

[davidosh] 18/11/2013 16:24

Someone bought over 14k at 70p today. That is the highest I have seen paid. Any news from any of you based in the North ?

[davidosh] 14/11/2013 14:11

I see our good friend battlebus has been extolling the virtues of dividend paying small caps and Ensor is the second one mentioned

[rp19] 12/11/2013 11:21

Another fairly big trade (15,000 shares) this morning which I assume is a buy.

[davidosh] 11/11/2013 19:35

Some fairly hefty buying today with 65000 traded and mainly buying it appears. The next results are only about three weeks away now.

[wilmdav] 31/10/2013 19:51

Hi David,

Yes, well done Eric! I have a hunch about his identity.

My own comparative results stack up quite well. Figures exclude dividends.

2010 28.2%
2011 -1.0%
2012 24.0%
2013 38.1% to date.

Current holdings are all displayed in the drop-down menus on my website.

hxxp://www.david-wilmshurst.co.uk/

My strategy is very similar to that of John Lee and your own. The main difference is that I have spent comparatively little time meeting management at agms and presentations. That has been partly due to personal circumstances during the past 2-3 years and partly because I tend to rely more than most on my own number crunching practices.

Nevertheless David Cicurel of Judges Scientific and Roger Harrison from Ensor both impressed me greatly at one of your presentation evenings. I already held the former at the time but bought Ensor immediately after the presentation.