DB, Ensilica itself does not design satellite terminals but supplies beamforming and RF chips for companies that do. As an example, it has a contract with the German company VITES from October 2023. |
I don’t know if anyone has done a survey of pi’s but most investors I chat to, who do invest in small companies, are feeling generally very cautious, partly because interest rates and gilts have had a nasty effect on their income stock share prices over the last few years.
So putting more money into “risky” stocks is not a priority and to some extent not even an option at the moment. |
Yes, the terminals could be a good source of future revenue if EnSilica can deliver a competitive spec and price. I would hope to see terminal ordrers for a British equivalent to IRIS2 (if Britain doesn’t eventually join) and possibly IRIS2 if the kit competes well.
I couldn’t confirm who the IRIS2 SpaceRISE consortium are using for terminals however I would expect there will be options from a portfolio of suppliers, as is the case for Eutelsat and SES’ current services. Hopefully the door will be open to EnSilica in time! |
Most shares are locked up with founders.
Company can’t buy as short of cash.
Free float of shares too small for institutional investors.
Only way this prices to value is a huge push from new private investors. Or we wait until the cash flows mean no sellers in this low price range and/share buy backs. |
More bizarre Yump that 126,823 share purchased and 145 sold and the share price goes down, dodgy dealings somewhere |
Its bizarre that in an alternative world of a small company bull market, the announcement of a any contract with the European space agency, would have doubled the share price. |
I'm sure Ensilica bid, but I thought the Iris2 contracts had gone elsewhere. |
Double I don’t think most small investors have grasped the enormity of what Ensilica are designing and developing for the ESA and Uk Spacev. The Chipset for ground based User Terminals, at a low cost and low power consumption . The Starlink constellation when fully operational will have approximately 4 million User Terminals, . If Iris 2/only has half that amount it would generate at £600m of business , but with Telcom company’s starting to ditch the Isvas there preferred supplier this could have profound effects on Ensilica for the future |
Yes Paraone3, it will be interesting to see how things pan out as IRIS2 is some way off.
In the short term I am hoping European firms such as SES and Eutelsat pick up some additional business given they have a combination of LEO, MEO and GEO satellites. Eutelsat’s LEO coverage however is not at good as Starlink’s and another key challenge for them is cost effective terminals, but that is where I am hoping Ensilica can help in the not too distant future. |
Interesting that you point out that Carlos Slim is going to ditch Starlink for his Sat/comms , as he is one of the richest people on the planet and controls most of the Telecoms in Mexico and South America , wonder where he might go . Iris 2will not be operational for at least three years possibly four, that leaves the way open for other Sat / comms companies but not American. |
Thanks Ged5. Yes, my opinion is not a guarantee of future success sadly but I do sincerely believe in what I have said. If the U.S. heads in the direction I think it will (less democratic is an understatement!) then British and continental European governments and businesses will hopefully recognise the urgency to invest in / develop better sovereign capabilities for satcoms and defence in general. |
Thanks Peterrr3. A glass half full attitude is not a bad place to be when investing in my opinion. I like to see and hear well constructed arguments for and against an investment, as echo chambers are good for no one.
I am British, living in Scotland, but yes my site is focused on the U.S. somewhat as that is where I have been investing for a few years now. Given the political chaos in the U.S. however, now seems like a good time to be looking for opportunities closer to home.
What are your thoughts on ENSI out of curiosity?
P.S. This is the second time I have replied but the first message still isn’t visible for some reason. |
Thank you Double Bubbler for your thoughts. I found this paragraph very interesting. I don't know how true it is but your example gives some credence.
Quote from Double Bubbler's website:-
"However given the seemingly increasing political chaos emanating from the U.S. and a possible move away from American firms in certain parts of the world, particularly in Britain, Canada, the European Union and Mexico, I expect opportunities for significant growth will occur in the months and years ahead for non-US makers of terminals, not to mention satellite communication service providers in general. For example billionaire Carlos Slim has recently announced⁶ plans to cancel orders worth $22b with Starlink and redirect the business too European and Chinese firms." |
Welcome onboard Bubble. You will find this a respectful and informative board, such that I can appreciate all challenges to my glass may be half empty take on the cash flow, although I see little risk to holding at these prices. You look US based, where did you learn about Ensilica? |
Hi all, I have recently bought into ENSI as it looks like a very promising company, especially given the shift in geopolitics of late.
I have written a brief article on my site on why I invested however I would like to build on this. Particularly in terms of future contract revenue.
Felix1, is your revenue model something you are willing to share so I can accomodate some of the data in a future article? |
That would be very nice if it happens -I haven't bought more for a while and that would be too hard to resist. |
At a crucial level now and if it doesn’t bounce and breaks 40 we could be on for a Dec 23 test!! Gulp |
A little bit added by Paul Morris on the recent RNS:-
Paul Morris, VP RF and Communications Business Unit at EnSilica, said, “As we and our infrastructure become ever more dependent on PNT services in everyday life, it is important to have highly integrated, resilient, and precise technology sourced in Europe and the UK. This collaboration will allow us to accelerate such technology, starting with a next-generation radio design enabling our partners to focus on integrating their custom algorithms.” |
Thanks to all of you for pointing me in the various directions. The difficulty with ENSI is the seven year drag on some of the revenue so we need to go back to 2018 contracts for a complete model.
I've read Allenby reports for other companies and generally they are good. Of course they are the Nomad so like all the other information we should check it for ourselves.
From what I've seen so far I consider ENSI to be a long term investment and intend to add whenever there is a dip in the share price like now when it is becoming oversold and when I have available funds. (Just a poor Northern boy!) |
Nice to see other small investors putting their pennyworth on this bulletin board , but the best guide are the Allenby forecasts for 2025 & 2026; ,
Approx figures of 30.2m rev
12.3m prof
4.3m eb
2.7m n/d for 2025
38.5m rev
15.7m prof
8.1m eb
2.4m.n/d for 20286
As the Allenby forecasts are pretty accurate for the last few years one would assume they know what is coming down the pipeline , we off course are only guessing on very limited information |
As Valhamos says that first Siemens contract is def now in the supply stage. I think that will generate £1.5m supply revenue in H2. Other major H2 supply revenues will be ~£2m from the 2021 (JLR) car chassis contract plus the new $20m US tapeout covered in the Nov24 statement. The latter is lower margin tapeout rather than chip supply but could add nearly £4m in H2. Then there are much smaller amounts from the 2022 industrial ASIC & the aerospace gyro chip. I've built a revenue model including 27 announced contracts, which tallies with ENSI H1 figures for consulting, NRE & supply revenue and the £188m ($244m) long term contract values. Based on that I do think it's enough. |
I don't think that's correct. The five Bluebird 1-5 satellites launched in 2024 were the block 1 sats. I'm certain these do not use the AST5000. They were mainly to prove the concept, test services with mobile providers and test the ability to unfold the largest ever 693sqft antenna. The planned block 2 sats offer 10x the bandwidth via 2400sqft antennas. That's when they need the AST5000. See last para: https://www.spacedaily.com/m/reports/AST_SpaceMobile_teams_with_Cadence_to_drive_space_based_cellular_broadband_999.html There was talk of a March launch in India, but no mention of that in AST's results a few days ago suggests that isn't now the case. But they were very clear on 60 contracted launches through 25-26. |
Ged5, that would be the first Siemens contract. Tape-out was announced on 10 October 2023, and Ensilica on 3 September 2024 announced the first production orders (being its 4th ASIC in production) for delivery in the first half of 2025. The second Siemens contract was announced on 12 September 2024. |
I have to agree with Yump about contract after contract. Whether it is enough as you pointed out Peter well I get the feeling that the management do think it's enough. The number of contracts awarded last year is what attracted me to ENSI.
It's good to have several well informed posters on this thread so thank you for your information. Looking back through announcements I came across this one from July 2022.
"The Award is for the design and supply of an ASIC for industrial and factory automation products and based on projected volumes by the customer, is worth in excess of US$30 million over seven years....
...The NRE design part of the Award is expected to commence this year and will be fully funded by the customer. Production and supply is expected to start at the end of calendar year 2024."
I presume then that part of the $30m will be in this half year results. |
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