Their £30m f/c for the year looks like a stretch after only £9.3m in H1, but FY24 had a similar profile. I've built my own detailed model based on announced contracts etc & I can see £21m in H2 (£30m in FY25) from existing contracts alone, with supply revenue passing £6m. Of course, as ENSI say, that is providing client dependencies do not delay projects. What's more I forecast £40m+ in FY26 with £12m supply revenue. From existing contracts alone. Interesting that there's been more references to the health sector recently. That ENS62020 chip has been available for evaluation for 2yrs now. ENSI said they haven't pursued health because there were more immediate ops in other sectors to get to cash +ve. Now that pressure is abating maybe health will start to develop. |
Thanks for links. Listened to pres/Q&A now. They emphasised again that they do not expect a fundraise & the FD f/c they will end FY25 with £2m cash & expect to be cash neutral in FY26 moving to cash +ve in Q4. The main issue I see is the price drifting on lack of news, given that they say the rate of contract wins will slow as they focus on delivery. Even so there are other potential news boosts:- The ARM factory chip with ENSI Crypto IP is scheduled to start supply by mid year- AST Spacemobile on LinkedIn say the AST5000 has passed testing, expect release soon, to go into satellites for Q3 launch. - the Edge AI, Rolls & second Siemens contracts are for chip supply but currently cover NRE stage only, so there should be extns to those, in that order |
Apologies all for predictive text , wondered where Funtime came from my last Post |
Listened to Fridays podcast on Investor meets Company ,lots to take in Funtime pretty upbeat and predicting £100m revenues within 6 to 10yrs on current Growth . Interesting that they are certainly concentrating on chips for the Space Comms , in the user pod . This has vast potential especially in ground pods in cars similar to comms pods in planes , probably only in high end models Mercs , BMWs and upwards,could be very profitable , the future is bright |
Cheers peterrr3
Clickable link: |
Here you go Felixhttps://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=4986d38ff6c52357&rlz=1CDGOYI_enGB1116GB1116&hl=en-GB&sxsrf=AHTn8zpUeGu44jh499rMgOVZ6vFpgAKhkw:1739709274265&q=ensilica+2025&udm=7&fbs=ABzOT_CWdhQLP1FcmU5B0fn3xuWpA-dk4wpBWOGsoR7DG5zJBjLjqIC1CYKD9D-DQAQS3Z44LBK6yTXN_5587Z3ya9D7DSaxM-14xIFnNO9Sk1S85X0iXbPUPu28SKnHFo5GfkUICui4lLn3ATGoR-tb1ZTBLfrMfNU3OS_Sf3gRkVkwQPGH4UghkUkSeN4WEOtEsJNzcS8dJhgEN50R2xtT7mcXOsxT0g&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwih-reKmsiLAxV5X0EAHX7pEHQQtKgLegQIDBAB&biw=414&bih=720&dpr=2#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:4a4ea981,vid:M7oSa4NnbcQ,st:0 |
A different way of looking at it is that a business struggling to survive is very often not a happy place to work but a business that is growing both in size and profitability is usually more enthusiastic and more rewarding for all staff and by extension shareholders. In other words there is a buzz of excitement within the company. |
Indeed, thanks for the research that you post Hastings. |
Very well put owenski. Ultimately if the delivery is demonstrated, then the stars might just align.From a personal perspective I'm looking for three or four years in terms of returns, obviously some investors timeline will be somewhat different. |
"Success", is a subjective value and thus needs context. Context is supplied by the agent whose criteria is met.
ENSI are 'successful' in designing chips. There is most definitely a business here. ENSI is primarily here to run a business and survive.
Shareholders context of success is predicated on investment returns, ie, share price movement.
Those two components are related but not always in sync. |
I couldn't attend and IMC are still yet to release the video & Q&A. Was there any discussion re the next chips to go into production? Particularly the AST5000 which went into tape out many months ago. |
I expect the share price to drift or retreat a bit if they expect 6-9 months before the next couple of win announcements unless something comes out of left field or they get promoted by someone with a following. AIM very much has a short term investor mindset otherwise. I think we can forget about Iris2 delivering anything now.Overall a more honest feel than the last presentation with time lines discussed. They are almost fully drawn on the main Lloyds loan but but it was good to see the £3m extension availability brought up so the lack of a need to raise seems genuine.Thanks to anyone here who asked a question as it is rare to see an intelligent mix. |
The direction of travel is very clear with the $241m long-term value of expected chip supply revenue from existing contracts. Some people are still evidently concerned about cash but the response was very specific - no cash raise. |
Todays presentation didn't reveal anything particularly new. I thought investors including myself were gauging the size of the opportunity here during Q and A. Its is large but we won't start to see it come through in financial results till 2027 although they they go cash flow positive in 2026Positives No fund raises planned for 2025 and seem to have a firm grip on financials now the new FD is in place.Contracted opportunity has increased by 30% with recent wins to 240ml. Supply margins are 40 to 50 percent on average confirming this is where the value is for investors.Supply revenue buildingNegativesNew contract wins will slow as they concentrate on delivery of what's being recently won.Looks like they will be relying on contract design and build cash this year.I am sure they said previously back end of 2025 for cash breakeven but obviously new contracts have impacted.The slip in the share price this week looks harsh as overall solid with no stings in the tail as in the past. |
Yes, it was good to read you on here Ged. I don't comment much on this board as I don't think there is very much to say with any certainty and people are better off reading the company documentation and understanding the business model. |
I'd say its success is down to having the product that meets the needs of major names, who as has been said have come to ENSI as opposed to any aggressive marketing! |
So it could be argued their success so far is their marketing. |
hpcg - I don't understand your comment about the "sudden focus on the commercialisation of new technology" or the comment that ASICs "totally dominate in terms of shipments" - surely off-the-shelf is a lot bigger market?
Whilst not wishing to minimise the importance of contract tendering or execution, I would say that Ensilca's design IP is absolutely vital to what they do. In fact we are told that they do not need to do much marketing - customers come to them based on their reputation in their niche sectors. And as such they can be selective with the sort of customers they engage with, like Land Rover, Siemens and what we assume to be Bosch and Rolls Royce etc. |
I don't quite understand this sudden focus on the commercialisation of new technology? ASICs were around long before CPUs and totally dominate in terms of shipments. Ensilica's success will be determined by it's marketing, contract tendering, and delivery, as much if not more so than its design IP. The risks, with any contractor, are low balling a tender to get work and then screwing it up. In this sector there is the risk of not making long term profits if there are disappointing orders on the production element.
What makes the sector lower risk than some other contracting businesses is that the thing being contracted is skills and not expensive equipment. I would think people can be deployed on existing projects if they have down time between contracts. That is still an opportunity cost though. |
Valhamos you are correct , they also have another 12 Asics in the design stage , which will generate approx 40 million dollars in the next 2 yrs . The unknown is the 13th which is the UkSA 10.4m design of basics for the LEO Ground stations , all that has been said is they will probably generate significant Revenues . So the future is bright to many short term investors |
The company IPO'ed in May 2022 with 3 ASIC's production. As of now, that has only increased to four (the fourth being the first Siemens chip - production announced 3/09/24, original contract 25/07/22). The point being - the process from contract award through design and finally to production can take many years and this company may not be suitable for the impatient investor, and secondly, we are going to see supply revenue ramp up considerably in the next couple of years following on from all the contracts announced since IPO. |
Interesting posts that made me realise I hadn't picked up on the conection between ENSI and TSMC. Shouldn't skim read annual reports cos it's all there on page 9.
'EnSilica operates a Fabless Semiconductor Model, providing an
end-to-end solution for the development, manufacturing and supply
of Integrated Circuits (ICs) from initial scoping and design through to
the delivery of products. EnSilica partners with the leading wafer
foundries such as TSMC and Global Foundries as well as Outsourced
Assembly and Test (OSAT) companies to manufacture our chips.
This sits alongside our design consultancy, supporting customers
with their own design teams to develop ICs.'
But didn't the discussion start with someone's obsession with Trump's tariffs which I still don't understand what they have to do with ENSI.
Most of the contracts are with European companies so how are US tariffs going to affect ENSI other than if they gain a US contract that may or my not happen? |
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