Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[helpfull] 12/5/2022 09:22

Tickety Tock! Disaster duster shock!

Jade was an exploration well that turned into a duster. The disaster was the myths surrounding it from an investor point of view.

Jade was never "filled to spill". No matter how many times the phrase was used in conjunction with possible success of the well. The idea originated, for Empyrean, from the RNS dated 18 June 2018. The Oil Migration Study was trying to find ways to model pathways for the possible charging of Jade and Topaz. The 2013 CNOOC oil discovery LH 23-1d-1 was designated "filled to spill" 8km away from Jade. The Jade result proves no "spill" from the "fill" happened from the model.

Migration from Baiyun Sag East source rock that is located over 26 km to the south of Jade obviously didn't happen as modelled. The Jade model relied heavily on that charge.

And what about Topaz? The model still relies on "overspill" from two discoveries and so Baiyun Sag East. Jade was drilled as the best possible target because it was closer to the previous discoveries. What hope Topaz? And there is also Baiyun Sag North. Situated between Jade and Topaz. It obviously never charged Jade. Described in June 2018 as "a new sub-basin". Now another straw to cling to.

It should be remembered Jade and Topaz rely on modelling for charge. Therein lies the risk. There is no reliable evidence. Gas cloud certainty was blown out of the water at Jade. The correct rocks and cap are in place but it is charge that matters. The more I see of Topaz the less optimistic I think investors should be. FOMO should not be a strategy. The lack of a plan and options should not be a strategy. I think Topaz will be drilled but it might be a few years of (more) wasted time. The odds favour failure.

Be careful.

[solarfire73] 12/5/2022 08:59

Yes Laz, a farm-in is the best approach imo.

[blueblood] 12/5/2022 08:41

Thanks Jem pretty much my thoughts too apart from I've not bought more yet.

[10owen] 12/5/2022 08:33

Agree with your conclusion Jemjem added another 925k this morning.Gla.

[jemjem] 12/5/2022 08:28

Blueblood.
You asked yesterday what my thoughts are.

Like everyone else I am still smarting from the events of the last couple of weeks - especially with the speed it all happened. There are a few questions that ideally would be answered and that may, or may not happen in time.

For the moment, I have compartmentalised the Jade drill and tried to concentrate on where we are now and treat this as a new company (albeit with history) and analyse the risk/reward from this point. I am confident that Duyung will happen soon. I am equally confident that Topaz will get drilled (whether others like it or not), with or without a farm in. My gut says a farm in will happen.
Given all that, I came to quite an easy conclusion that a purchase around these levels is very worthwhile.
I bought around 2.5m at an average of 1.52p over the last couple of days and, assuming no further news change, will buy more at lower levels if the chance arises.

Imo

[rickyhatton] 11/5/2022 22:19

Jade was a disaster - whether thats because of hindsight or lack of foresight we are yet to find out from GB.

But the learning from Jade is there, and already making them more careful about Topaz and its gas clouds and oil migration pathways and they have positive preliminary explanations to offer up as to why Topaz is now a better shot than Jade and wont suffer failure for the reasons Jade did! Others have posted how the risk reward remains HUGE even with 25% given up. They think the "timing" of oil migration favours Topaz, and much nearer pathways to fill favour Topaz. And Topaz better mimics nearby producing wells, and is in the right location to mimic other producing wells. Its never going to be anywhere near a certainty, but realistically it could be already a 50/50 shot, with massive reward upsides. Five years work does not evaporate with one duster. Lets see what the end of May final appliance of science analysis offers up.

If we were excited by Jade, its looking like we should be more excited by Topaz

[judijudi] 11/5/2022 21:23

I wonder what our marketing and PR is going to look like going forward?

[jerrys1] 11/5/2022 18:49

Re post 48513/ george- using your estimates IMOFrom a cash flow view point your comments hold water but to be a fair comparison you should adjust EME cash for debts,cost and the cost of the next drill in all about £20m. ( giving coros net cash of £38.9m v EME £20mBut as a marker for the companies value net asset value should be taken into account. Coro's net asset value would increase by £60m (£70m less 20% payable to noteholders). That is a 6 to 7 times improvement over current market cap. EME would be about a 2x improvement

[1sajad] 11/5/2022 17:57

This is a funny post keep them coming need some humour here

[1sajad] 11/5/2022 17:56

Hi purple what makes u think a 200% rise on this by Friday interested in your thoughts

[birotop] 11/5/2022 17:47

More like Bobbies helmet..

[purple_helmet] 11/5/2022 17:16

Buzz, those were the good days; we had only one nerd on oex, SteveGlobal; he's in a mental hospital now. LOL.

I had a few good runs on oex, from 0.18p to 0.3p last 18 months. However, these days the nerds and bigots are riding the moral high horses and keeps emailing ADVFN. These WOKEs should be banished; they do spoil our fun.


Make ADVFN GREAT AGAIN

MAGA.


NB
On a serious note, MMS are really suppressing us here, and they know that a 200% rise is coming fast and furious.

[buzzzzzzzz] 11/5/2022 16:38

PH

Unfortunately I did not sell OEX at the top......story of my life LOL

[purple_helmet] 11/5/2022 16:34

now I remember Buzz and Chickencharlie. ADVFN USED TO BE great before.

we were riding OEX from 2p to 22p about 8 years ago :). Good man.

MAKE ADVFN GREAT AGAIN MAGA. GET RID OF THE BIGOTS

[purple_helmet] 11/5/2022 16:26

C'mon MMS, stop sucking our blood. I am looking for a 200% gain here by Friday.

[buzzzzzzzz] 11/5/2022 16:17

JJ

Statistically no.

However CNOC will drill Topaz if EME does not and it would be sods law that they hit oil.

[judijudi] 11/5/2022 16:08

Ta Ra
👌👍😂🤣8079;👏

[judijudi] 11/5/2022 15:59

buzz,
Doesn’t bode well for Topaz then does it!

[buzzzzzzzz] 11/5/2022 15:31

JJ

Helpful is a pratt!

The statistical success rate of exploration wells is around 20% so the odds were stacked in his favour.

[blakieboy7] 11/5/2022 15:10

Diary, no TK didn't go into any specifics, he just said the investigation is moving very slowly with the authorities