Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[panshanger1] 24/3/2021 13:58

52 week high ( and post COVID )Good sign I would have thought

[stevegrass777] 21/3/2021 22:39

Yes emperic properties look very posh on the hello student website I'm sure they're not cheap.
Also I feel emperic properties would convert into residential rather easily if demand didn't improve.
It's a shame the article didn't go into nav and even loan to value etc.
Maybe short term they are right to favour Unite, but esp is cheaper and if you look a little further ahead I'm sure will close the gap on NAV. So maybe a little more risk of plenty more reward in my opinion.

[makinbuks] 19/3/2021 16:50

You are quite right, and its no different in the magazine. share price 1020p, IFRS NAV 809p is a premium of 20%! I did have a very quick look at Unite earlier in the week, just wondering if the time was right to buy in but quickly concluded they were overpriced and I would be better adding to my ESP position. They are in very different markets. Several of my children have been in Unite accommodation and I'm far too Scottish to pay for ESP!

[stevegrass777] 18/3/2021 21:25

Looking at IC tonight (on the app) and they are comparing Unite to ESP and it has Unite at a 26% discount to nav yet the figures suggest a 26% premium to NAV for unite.
And ESP obviously has a big discount to NAV, they favour Unite but fail to mention NAV and on the app it seems wrong.
Hopefully the printed version will be correct.

[stevegrass777] 18/3/2021 11:30

Exactly esp will eventually trade at NAV and those who picked shares up at this level and bellow should be rewarded.
Great defencive industry usually and should revert to that once things settle down.

[boonkoh] 17/3/2021 13:42

Huge discount to NAV of 104p.Historically usually trading between 0% and 10% discount to NAV, so there's plenty of upside later this year when back to normal occupancy levels and bookings confirmed closer to start of academic year.

[makinbuks] 17/3/2021 12:27

Yes, FY21 is a write off of course, but my hope is that we see a full restart from September and therefore in 2022 the share price goes to around £1 and we see the dividend restarted at 3 or 4p. Surprised (pleasantly) they sold properties in Portsmouth, good news that all bookings are now managed in house

[stevegrass777] 17/3/2021 12:16

The results don't look bad considering what a bad year the whole industry has had, ESP have held up the business rather well and should do very well once restrictions are lifted.
Students still want a go to university and online is a very mediocre experience.
So I'm expecting things to get back to normal as soon as they can.

[makinbuks] 16/3/2021 15:23

Yes these are all positives and thanks for highlighting them. I expect the NAV to hold up on this basis but revenue and profit recovery will only come from a full restart in the Autumn and assuming there isn't another wave. If that were established we would revert to pre covid levels quickly

[panshanger1] 16/3/2021 13:22

Thanks for posting

[okosling] 16/3/2021 12:27

A bit more from Unite's announcement on the supply situation:
"The PBSA sector now provides homes to over 680,000 students, representing around one-third of the UK's student population. At this level, there still remains a c.310,000 shortfall in beds compared to the numbers of 1st-year and international students, before taking account of the increasing numbers of 2nd and 3rd-year students who are choosing this type of accommodation."

Unite also report that delivery of their Old BRI development in Bristol, planned for this year, has been delayed by Covid; will now be ready for the 2022/23 academic year. That's a short-term positive for Empiric, as they have two properties in Bristol.

[boonkoh] 16/3/2021 10:07

Latest UCAS application stats. Note the YoY comparison was pre covid, which makes the rise even better.While non-EU international student applications leaped to a record 85,610, those from within the EU have decreased to 26,010, marking a decline of 40%.Applications from China and India have increased to 25,810 (+21%) and 7,820 (+25%) respectively, while US applications have seen the "largest proportional increase of any major nation", up 61% to 6,670.Good to see international up, hopefully at the unis that Empiric targets.

[okosling] 16/3/2021 10:04

Unite results out this morning. Outlook statements very positive, referring to the increase in UCAS application numbers as mentioned by Maddox in post #1095. Also positive demographics:
"The outlook for student numbers remains strong. Demographic growth is significant over the next decade, with the 18-year-old population returning to 2010's height by 2024 and continuing to grow strongly thereafter. This would imply demand for around 220,000 additional UK undergraduate places by 2030 at current participation rates."

Also comments on UK government policy:
"The UK Government's international education strategy is targeting growth in international student numbers to at least 600,000 by 2030, representing at least an additional 80,000 international students. In September 2019, the Government announced a new two-year post-study work visa for international students (three years for postgraduates), starting from the 2020/21 academic year. The change has already aided the UK's international competitiveness in the Higher Education sector, leading to significant growth in demand from China and India over the past two years. The Government is actively seeking to broaden the demand pool from international markets with opportunities for the UK to increase its market share of student arrivals from Africa and Asian countries, outside of China."

It clearly bodes well for Empiric also, hence this morning's share price increase.

[panshanger1] 16/3/2021 08:45

12 month high

[panshanger1] 16/3/2021 08:43

Gaining yesterday and today before results tomorrow I notice

[makinbuks] 11/3/2021 11:51

Don't expect we'll learn much. All eyes on the return to uni in the autumn and what state we're in as a nation at that point. Modelling suggests there will be another surge in the autumn so it all depends how effective the vaccine proves. If current trends continue we should see a return to pre covid levels for ESP

[panshanger1] 11/3/2021 07:38

Final results next week

[maddox] 23/2/2021 19:46

Hi Guys,

For FY2019 to 31 Dec 2019 the proportions for ESP were:

55% Undergrads
34% Masters/Post Grad
11% Others

and

34% UK
9% EU
57% Non-EU

So, as you say, ESP position themselves as 'prime' student accommodation = more expensive - hence the mix.

Regards, Maddox

[makinbuks] 23/2/2021 17:00

Agreed, we are at the expensive, en suite end of the market so favouring overseas students and post grads but undergraduates are welcome

[chucko1] 23/2/2021 16:52

They do a mixture - cannot recall the proportions. But not graduate only.

[boonkoh] 23/2/2021 13:22

Maddox, correct me if I'm wrong. But the UCAS numbers you shared was for undergrad.But Empiric accommodation is for postgrad students?Still interesting stats, but hope you didn't assume Empiric was doing undergrad accommodation!

[panshanger1] 23/2/2021 11:08

Getting close to post COVID highShould be a bit more momentum behind this now news flow is improving (imo )Finals 17 th March Restoration of dividend would be nice GLA

[maddox] 21/2/2021 18:05

Hi ph, further substantiation of the outlook.

I see that we have UCAS' university application data for 2021 just published - numbers are up again:

'Overall, a total of 616,360 people had applied, an increase of 8.5% and a new record for this point in the application cycle.'

and, significantly International students (excepting the EU) are also up:

'Applicants from outside of the EU continue to rise and are up this year by 17% to a record 85,610.

Applicants from China and India have increased to 25,810 (+21%) and 7,820 (+25%) respectively. The USA has seen the largest proportional increase of any major nation as applicant numbers have risen 61% to 6,670.

EU applicant numbers have decreased to 26,010 (-40%) as the short term effects and uncertainty at the end of the last calendar year surrounding the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, and changes to student support arrangements, have impacted on applications from the continent. However, applicants from Ireland have increased by 26% to reach 4,850.'

www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and-key-documents/news/nursing-applications-soar-ucas-publishes-latest-undergraduate-applicant-analysis

and if you want to delve into the detail UCAS provide a very useful tool:

www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-releases/applicant-releases-2021/2021-cycle-applicant-figures-january-deadline

Significantly, this confirms expectations that the University Sector should bounce back in academic year 2021/22.

Regards Maddox

[panshanger1] 17/2/2021 12:59

Interesting !Thanks for posting

[maddox] 17/2/2021 11:01

Unite(UTG)has published a Student Survey this morning, that is significant for any investors in the sector:



The up-shot is that we can expect a rapid recovery in Unite's trading, once Covid-19 restrictions allow. The findings are:

>> 77% students struggled with mental health and wellbeing as a result of Covid-19, but 84% say engaging in university life has been positive for their mental health;

>> Students' biggest challenge this year is the lack of face-to-face teaching, practical experience or facilities;

>> Traditional face-to-face university experience is key for students: 86% are keen to get onto university campus once it is safe to do so; 75% agree that living in university accommodation and being on campus is as important a part of the University experience as lectures and tutorials; and

>> Four in five (79%) students would like a return to face-to-face tuition after the Easter break.

This based on a survey of 2000 students.

Covid-19 has been very instructive: It has demonstrated just how robust the demand is for the University experience. Going to University is clearly a culturally entrenched 'right of passage' for the UK's young adults.

It has often been postulated that on-line learning would disrupt this tradition. Covid-19 has provided the opportunity to test this hypothesis. Whilst, on-line learning has clearly allowed for teaching to continue during the Covid-19 Lockdowns - but is certainly not a substitute for the Uni experience.

These are two extremely significant points for anyone assessing the risks of investing in this sector.

Regards Maddox