Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 19:24

Next Fed (FOMC) meeting is on November 3rd

US elections are on November 2nd, Obama is likely to have his power base reduced.

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 16:50

China is printing money at nearly a 20% annual rate to prevent a yuan appreciation even in the face of intense global efforts to encourage the country to strengthen the unit. (The last thing China wants to do is buckle to U.S. pressure like Japan did following the 1985 Plaza Accord, which strengthened the yen and sent the country into a 25-year deflationary stagnation period.)

...
The Plaza Accord or Plaza Agreement was an agreement between the governments of France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark by intervening in currency markets.

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 15:51

GOOG today, After Market Close
Apple on Monday, After Market Close

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 12:47

Sy Harding

Wednesday, October 13, 2010. 9:15 am.

We've all sat in the audience at a magic show or watched on TV and asked that question in awe, "How do they do that.

I've been watching 3rd quarter earnings reports and asking the same question.

More than twice as many S&P 500 companies warned in recent weeks that they would not meet Wall Street's estimates for 3rd quarter earnings than warned prior to 2nd quarter earnings being released.

Among them Intel, considered the important bellwether for the tech sector.

So how did that work out?

On August 27, just six weeks ago, Intel, the world's largest chip-maker surprised global markets by warning that its third quarter sales and earnings would not meet Wall Street's estimates, due to sharp declines in demand from the tech sector. The company said its sales would only be between $10.8 billion and $11.2 billion, well short of estimates of $11.2 to $12 billion.

They reported last night, and sure enough their sales came in at $11.1 billion, well short of the estimates.

Well no, they didn't. Somehow Wall Street managed to get the consensus estimate down to $10.99 billion.

So Wall Street and TV anchors are excited this morning and the tech sector is surging because Intel beat expectations, sales above $11 billion for the first time ever, etc. And earnings of 52 cents a share beat the significantly lowered earnings estimates of 50 cents a share.

And the company, which six weeks ago correctly lowered its forecast and said it was due to declining demand from the tech sector, says in its report that the strong results were "due to solid demand for its products".

A Wall Street spokesman said in an interview on CNBC yesterday "We can get more out of this rally if we can get the focus shifted from the economy and QE2 to earnings." An unusual admission, but that seems to be the goal, and it's working this morning.

...
(also Intel have lowered costs by starting to offshore their 32nm manufacture (newest chips))

The Intel plant in Costa Rica will assemble and test the new 32-nanometer chips, the first of their kind in the world, with smaller transistors and higher speeds than have ever been achieved for desktop computers.
The responsibility of the assembly and testing of these chips will be shared with the Penang plant (China), explained Karla White, manager of corporate affairs at Intel Costa Rica.

[briarberry] 13/10/2010 15:14

JPM not doing so well so far, I don't think it means anything, we've still got opex on Friday plus Apple earnings etc left to wait for (ie more circus acts to follow)

[briarberry] 13/10/2010 12:28

JPM revenue fell, their results only look good because they lowered provisions by nearly $5B, the future all depends on if they are right to lower provisions ?

J.P. Morgan provisions $3.22B vs $8.1B
J.P. Morgan net rev. $23.82B vs $26.62B
J.P. Morgan Tier 1 common ratio 9.5%
J.P. Morgan mortgage repurchase reserves up $1B
J.P. Morgan Q3 net income $4.4B vs $3.6B
J.P. Morgan Q3 earnings $1.01 vs 82C

[briarberry] 12/10/2010 19:25

FOMC Minutes

The Fed's minutes of the September 21 policy meeting showed that there is diversity of opinion regarding additional quantitative easing. However, nearly all fit in the categories of either acting soon or acting depending upon additional information on the economy-with the latest news showing the economy very sluggish.

[briarberry] 12/10/2010 16:45

U.S. HOUSING MARKET STILL UNGLUED AFTER ALL THESE YEARS
There is a wave of new supply that is going to be hitting the market in the future because only 20% of the 1.2 million homes in the foreclosure process are on the market (as per a great column on this in yesterday's Investor's Business Daily - RealtyTrac data cited here). Of the 900,000 homes that banks have repossessed, just 30% are for sale at the current time. So tack 600,000 units onto the 'shadow inventory' and we are talking about a total backlog of up to 3.5 million (tack that on to the 4 million homes that are officially listed for sale right now).

[briarberry] 12/10/2010 11:52

India - Some funny stats in here, will growth in emerging markets really save us ???


India's industrial output grew 5.6% year-on-year in August, its slowest rate for 15 months, as capital goods output shrank during the month.

The growth figure marked a decline from the revised 15.2% increase seen in July, government figures showed.

Output of capital goods, which includes everything from heavy machinery to cabling, contracted 2.6% in August after growing a revised 72% in July.

The sector's volatility has led some to question the reliability of the data.

"It's difficult to extract a trend out of this volatile component, particularly when it's driving the headline number to sharp swings," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai.

"Last month there were just two or three items which drove growth, like insulated cables and wires, which grew 700%," she said.

"I think either the weightages need to be re-examined or the data collection needs to improve."

The overall growth figure was much lower than expected. Analysts had forecast growth of 9.9%.



need to start watching this

BSESN down 0.6% and rupee down 0.6% against USD

[briarberry] 11/10/2010 13:45

Fed - A few people are saying that 80% of the SnPee gains in September came on days when there was a Fed open market operation.

[briarberry] 11/10/2010 10:31

QE - Are the markets looking forward to QE2 or are they being pumped up by QE1.5 ? Given the expected size of the US deficit next year I would guess that the US still needs QE2 sometime ? And I keep thinking that it will be difficult to start QE2 with the price of everything rising...



The Fed has bought $45 billion of Treasuries in the first two months of QL1.5, including $7.3 billion last week. It's been good for 80 points on the S&P 500, 650 on the Dow, and a 35 basis point decline in the 10 year yield.

With QL1.5 working as well as it is I don't know why anyone is speculating that QE2 is a done deal.

(not always sure if he really knows 100% what he is talking about, although he does save you the effort of looking up the stats yourself everyday)

[briarberry] 07/10/2010 20:07

U.S. Aug. consumer credit down $3.3 bln
(down 7 months in a row)

[briarberry] 06/10/2010 17:39

Big jump in mortgage purchase applications today...

"The increase in purchase activity was led by a 17.2 percent increase in FHA applications, while conventional purchase applications also increased by 3.6 percent," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's Chief Economist. "This is the second straight weekly increase in purchase applications and the highest Purchase Index level since the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit program. One possible driver of last week's big increase in FHA applications was a desire by borrowers to get applications in before new FHA requirements took effect October 4th, which included somewhat higher credit score and down payment requirements."

[briarberry] 06/10/2010 15:59

The latest data from the Fed showed that in the September 22 week, bank credit contracted $71.8 billion on top of a $13.7 billion decline the week before for the sixth steepest slide over a two-week span on record (and right across the board from business credit to real estate to consumer loans).

[briarberry] 06/10/2010 13:36

Sept. ADP drop biggest since Jan
U.S. Sept. ADP employment down 39,000

[briarberry] 04/10/2010 15:32

Pending still down 18.4% from this time last year...

Pending sales of U.S. homes climbs 4.3% in August (MoM, seasonally adjusted)
not seasonally adjusted up 6.4% MoM. Down 18.4% from this time last year.

[briarberry] 29/9/2010 22:51

Regional Federal Reserve presidents showed they're far from unanimous on whether the central bank should try to boost flagging U.S. growth with a second round of unconventional monetary easing.

[briarberry] 28/9/2010 18:04

Treasury sells $35 bln in 5-year debt at 1.260%

[briarberry] 28/9/2010 14:16

1933

Executive Order 6102 is an Executive Order signed on April 5, 1933 by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates" by U.S. citizens.

Executive Order 6073 - Reopening Banks (with more money)


President Franklin D. Roosevelt

[briarberry] 28/9/2010 13:36

AEP has changed his mind now ???


Yes, U6 unemployment is 16.7pc. But as dissenters at the Minneapolis Fed remind us, you cannot solve a structural unemployment crisis with loose money.



I've got a horrible feeling that the world recovered from the depression due to some sort of coincidence. And that's why the Greenie put worked because the economy was going to grow anyway ??? (I don't know, it's only a feeling)

[briarberry] 27/9/2010 19:22

US gold production is falling but that is likely to change if these new Alaskan mines open. Although mining in Alaska is expensive...


Yet, most Alaskan gold comes from only a handful of mines – and that tells you something about the size of the deposits being worked. The two largest mines, Fort Knox and Pogo, account for more than 80% of 2008 total gold production, or 640,000 ounces. The Kensington project, which started producing gold just a month ago, is set to become the third largest. Perhaps. But these mines are small potatoes compared to some of the current projects being advanced toward production. Given that a million ounces of contained gold is considered a large gold mine, Alaska's major deposits are genuine monsters: Pebble has 107.3 million ounces of gold, Donlin Creek has 42.3 million, and Livengood has 19.7 million. If these go into production, Alaska will rank as one of the world's top gold producers.

The main problems for resource industries in Alaska boil down to two things: it's expensive, and much of the place is remote. For a mining project, a simple rule of thumb I've heard some old-timers use is that everything costs twice as much in Alaska.