Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 27/9/2010 14:24

Fed, I'm still not sure that the Fed have the nerve to start QE2 without some sort of deflation scare first. You know for political reasons. Everything is going up in price, stocks, bonds, metals and softs. Although I have been assured that legally the Fed can start QE2 whenever they see fit.

[briarberry] 26/9/2010 14:59

John Mauldin - The End Game (Recorded before the Fed announced the chance of QE2)

John Mauldin, best-selling financial author, discusses his view of the
debt cycle, and the coming de-leveraging recession. Filmed during the
Executive Program March 2010 at Singularity University, NASA Ames,
Silicon Valley.

(1hr 20m)

He mentions this book a few times: This Time Is Different by Reinhart &
Rogoff - You cannot borrow your way out of a debt crisis. A crisis has
historically always occurred when debt is excessive compared to income.
And this is regardless of whether the debt is public or private or a sum of
both.

He still likes Biotech although recession part2 will affect stock prices

[briarberry] 22/9/2010 21:24

The next US midterm elections are scheduled for November 2, 2010

[briarberry] 22/9/2010 16:17

U.S. house prices lowest in nearly six years
Prices fall 0.5% in July, and June price drop revised to 1.2%
Federal Housing Finance Agency

[briarberry] 21/9/2010 23:34

(Bloomberg) -- Record-low interest rates are stoking the biggest increase in U.S. share buybacks ever.

[briarberry] 21/9/2010 19:15

Fed worried about deflation and prepared to ease
Fed says prepared to ease if necessary
Fed makes no quantitative easing moves

(no change, just repeated what they said before)

[briarberry] 21/9/2010 16:54

another post similar to 2706 above

American Businesses and Consumers are NOT Deleveraging ... They Are Going On One Last Binge

[briarberry] 17/9/2010 21:41

FOMC Meeting Announcement = Tuesday Sep 21

The market will be holding its breath before every meeting from now on to see if Ben Banky announces QE2 (The Fed buying treasuries, potentially $700 billion)

Friday Aug 27
Bernanke said, additional purchases of longer-term securities if needed

[briarberry] 17/9/2010 14:13

Student loans - another festering crisis...


Student Loan Corp. to be sold for $30 a share - Citi said it will record a $500 million loss on the sale in the third quarter.

Sallie Mae (SLM) to buy $28B of Student Loan assets - The deal will see Sallie Mae's loan management and servicing portfolio boosted 16% to $200 billion.



dcmtbr comment

SLM has quite the racket going on. Student Loans cannot be discharged in bankruptcy and most of SLM's products have a govt guarantee. So from what I understand SLM issues/backs a student loan and collects the interest and servicing fees. if the loan goes into default SLM then sells it to the government at face value. The government then in turn hires SLM to collect the money.

[briarberry] 16/9/2010 16:58

Rates - this week India raised its rates to 6%, Canada raised its rates to 1% last week, more importantly will China follow the trend and raise rates ???


India's central bank has raised interest rates by more than expected as it continues to battle high inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India increased its repo rate - the rate at which it lends to banks - to 6% from 5.75%.

It raised the reverse repo rate - the rate at which it borrows from banks - to 5% from 4.5%. Economists had expected a rise to 4.75%.

It is the fifth rate hike this year as India has faced double-digit inflation, although it fell to 8.5% in August.

The fall - from 9.8% the previous month - was partly due to changes in the way it is calculated to include a wider range of consumer goods.

Under the old system, August's inflation rate would have been 9.5%.

[briarberry] 14/9/2010 21:51

Bank Repossession of Homes Sets New Record in August

The nation's banks repossessed a record number of homes in August, according to industry sources. RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site, will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.

That is the highest since the site began tracking in 2005. July's repossession number was the second highest on record. The last highest was 93,777 in May of 2010.

[briarberry] 14/9/2010 10:39

This years deficit is 39% of spending (1.26/3.18x100)...

The Treasury's deficit is huge but is not quite as huge as last year. The August deficit totals $90.5 billion for a fiscal year-to-date deficit of $1.26 trillion vs. $1.38 trillion a year ago. Year-to-date receipts, at $1.92 trillion, are up 1.6 percent while outlays, at $3.18 trillion, are down 2.5 percent.

[briarberry] 09/9/2010 21:10

Anglo Irish bailout bill due in weeks, tops 25 billion euros

The bank said last month that an estimate of 25 billion euros for the final bill under its 'good bank/bad bank' plan was broadly correct and later warned that a straight forward, long-term wind down could bring that cost to 30 billion

[briarberry] 09/9/2010 18:49

Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank AG, is considering a stock sale to raise more than $11 billion. "They will likely not be the only bank that will have to raise more money," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

[briarberry] 08/9/2010 14:10

Bank of Canada raises interest rate from 0.75% to 1%

[briarberry] 06/9/2010 13:32

Recession factoids, lots of stuff you really didn't want to know...


More than 24% of all homes with mortgages in the United States were underwater (the mortgage is more than the current market value of the home) as of the end of 2009.

This most recession has erased 8 million private sector jobs in the United States.

39.68 million Americans are now on food stamps, which represents a new all-time record.

In 2010 the U.S. government is projected to issue almost as much new debt as the rest of the governments of the world combined.

During the first quarter of 2010, the total number of loans that are at least three months past due in the United States increased for the 16th consecutive quarter.

For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.

61% of Americans "always or usually" live paycheck to paycheck, which was up from 49% in 2008 and 43% in 2007. The numbers are similar in Canada.

A staggering 43% of Americans have less than $10,000 saved up for retirement.

In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.

[briarberry] 04/9/2010 22:08

Manufacturing, the regional reports are all weaker apart from Chicago...


Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank in August for the first time in a year as orders and sales slumped, a sign factories are being hurt by the U.S. economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to minus 7.7 this month, the lowest reading since July 2009, from 5.1 in July. Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity - In August, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity - our broadest measure of manufacturing - declined five points to 11 from July's reading of 16.

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 2.2% in July, to a seasonally adjusted level of 81.4 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index fell 0.2% in June to 79.6. The Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) increased 1.1% in July.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Texas factory activity was unchanged in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at zero, posting a third consecutive month of little to no growth. Most other indexes for current activity remained negative in August. The new orders index stayed at –9, implying incoming orders continue to fall.

The Empire State report poses bad news for the manufacturing outlook. Readings on new orders, unfilled orders, and shipments all show month-to-month deterioration in August.

Kansas City manufacturing activity slowed in August, and producers were somewhat less optimistic than in previous months.

[briarberry] 03/9/2010 16:01

Net Birth/Death Adjustment added 115,000 theoretical jobs to the nonfarm payrolls. That's more than a bit too optimistic considering small business has been hit the hardest in this downturn.

-54,000 -115,000 = -169,000 more likely

....

SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate = 22%


Unemployment U6 rate = 16.7%

[briarberry] 03/9/2010 15:08

ISM services index fell to 51.5 in August from 54.3