Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 08/6/2020 12:04

@Maddox - largely irrelevant tho, it's what they perceive that matters, as that's what affects their actions.

[maddox] 08/6/2020 09:56

SpectAcc,

Covid-19 presents very little risk to students (see my post 962 above). The research suggests that they suffer greater risk from suicide, accidents and drug misuse.

[spectoacc] 08/6/2020 09:50

Wondering if the US/China problems will push more Chinese students here, rather than America - could be a plus for ESP.

But overall, if I was in a largely non-Covid country like (allegedly) China, I'd be mildly nervous about coming here. Still - Covid figs still improving here, and in about 3 weeks we'll know if the demonstrations have had any effect.

[maddox] 08/6/2020 09:44

Further info on the prospects for the 20/21 Academic Year.

'A new survey of international students by the British Council has found that nearly 14,000 fewer students from eight countries – including China, Singapore and Malaysia – are likely to come to the UK in 2020/21 in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The decline of 20% in students from east Asia would amount to a 12% fall in overall international student numbers, causing a £460m loss of income from tuition and living expenses such as accommodation.

While the fall in student numbers appears smaller than some institutions are anticipating, one worrying sign from the survey is that nearly 40% of those coming from China – the UK’s biggest source of overseas students – have yet to decide.

“Prospective international students are facing a lot of uncertainty, but many are clearly trying to find a way to keep their overseas study plans,” said Matt Durnin, the author of a report for the British Council.

“There is a window of opportunity over the next two months to create a greater sense of certainty about the upcoming academic year. If responses are clear and quickly communicated to prospective students, UK higher education will face a much more manageable scenario.”

The survey of prospective students found that 29% said they were likely to delay or cancel their plans to study. A majority of postgraduate applicants said they would rather postpone the start of their studies until January 2021 than begin with online teaching in autumn, while 46% of undergraduate applicants agreed.'



A few points to highlight:

>> Universities need to get their act together if they want their foreign students to turn-up; and

>> Students find online learning unappealing.

>> A 12% fall in foreign student numbers is bad but a lot better than some previous estimates.

This is a survey however and students' attitudes and intentions might change rapidly for better or for worse. Hopefully, Unis will wake up and smell the coffee soon. Students are at very little risk from Covid-19, they don't need extreme social distancing measures. The measures that are needed are to shield other vulnerable people that might interact with them, such as elderly lecturers, administrators, wardens, cleaners etc. Campus style Universities shouldn't find segregation a particularly difficult task.

Regards Maddox

[maddox] 07/6/2020 12:58

Chuko,

UTG are in London and developing in London. They move away from London when the land prices are such that the initial yield on completion is insufficient (< 4.8%). By value London is 55% of their current development pipeline.

London will become more difficult as proposed developments will require University backing(nomination agreements)and 35% meet an affordability requirement (Draft London Plan, Dec 2019 p79). The plan runs out to 2041.

However, the plan envisages a need for 3,500 PBSA beds per annum.



Regards, Maddox

[spectoacc] 06/6/2020 13:47

Interesting stuff, thanks. June 18th isnt' far away.

(Re UTG/DIGS - ESP always performed differently, not helped by some bad mis-steps in the past. UTG/DIGS have always looked too expensive to me :) )

[okosling] 06/6/2020 12:21

Picking up from Oxman's comment in post 959, the shape of the one month graphs of Unite (UTG) and GCP Student Living (DIGS) are almost indistinguishable from each other, with both up 25% in the past two weeks. But Empiric's graph is completely different, with today's price almost the same as two weeks ago. The contrast in the past few days is especially sharp.

How can this be justified? Are they really different? Perhaps Empiric is more up-market, appealing to overseas students, whose numbers may drop off more? I really don't think so: I think premium accommodation is ideally suited to the Covid-19 situation and will be in demand. I can't see significantly higher vacancies, even if student numbers are down. I added to my holding yesterday at 59.3p.

[okosling] 06/6/2020 12:10

A report in the Guardian today says that students now finishing their first or second year will mostly be prevented from taking a year off because of Covid-19:


Another report discusses what the new academic year might look like, with various options to comply with social distancing. Cambridge and a couple of others have already said there will be no big lectures, but there are other plans: Worcester says that to keep numbers down it will alternate students between those attending in person and those watching online. June 18th seems to be a crunch date, as that is the deadline for would-be freshers to confirm a firm first choice:

[spectoacc] 05/6/2020 07:31

Thanks @Maddox.

[maddox] 05/6/2020 07:30

Hi SpectoAcc,

The figures are the risk of death following catching Covid-19.

Regards Maddox

[spectoacc] 05/6/2020 06:46

Is that 1 in 10,000 on current figures, or 1 in 10,000 who contract Covid?

Press suggesting lots of university deferrals, so possibly a bad year next year, bumper year after.

Have to say, September doesn't seem so far away.

(Largely agree re risk factors for the yoof, but makes the preposterous govnt instructions to primary schools even more crazy. Basically, half of youngsters still off school, and not likely to return this year, when risk in the under-14's is miniscule).

[maddox] 04/6/2020 23:24

Interesting discussion on Radio 4 Today 1:34:00 in:



Clear divergence of opinion, on the one hand Julia Buckingham Brunel Chancellor, speaks on behalf of Universities UK "wonderful digital education being introduced, very exciting ... have wanted to do this for a long time." Whilst others clearly recognise what prospective students really want Richard Taylor, COO Loughborough Uni "student life must be enjoyable, they want to socialise, the campus university experience".

I think the students will dictate the outcome - mass deferral will spell financial distress for universities.

[tole] 04/6/2020 17:03

Some large volume in the closing auction

[chucko1] 04/6/2020 16:08

Likewise. At these sorts of levels, alternative use comes into play (not that they would). NAV of around 108p, if I recall, so a decent 45% discount.

[tole] 04/6/2020 13:10

I've added a few today in the pullback

[its the oxman] 01/6/2020 13:58

50% plus if this can get back to the 90s. Either students will return in large numbers or not. If they do then fears are very overdone , the shares will have lots of ground to make up and management will need to restart stalled projects. The fundamentals of student no's growing steadily over the next 10 years adds some longer term comfort.

[stevegrass777] 01/6/2020 13:01

But don't you think that as time goes on investors will realise that by sept,oct when students start Covid should be under control and less restrictions in place.
I'm sure the govenment wont want these students on the unemployment statistics!
so should be some milage left in ESP yet.
Yes it's nice to get a 50% discount,but you can manage on less and still make money I would imagine.

[apollocreed1] 01/6/2020 10:59

I wish I could have bought this last week at the 50% discount to NAV.

[stevegrass777] 01/6/2020 10:21

Well looking at the beaches everything that is deamed as fun is ON ON ON,
going back to work the public aren't shure about,the kids arent sure about going back to school.
But I believe University is classed as a fun thing to do so im sure they will want to leave home and get some top notch self containd studio or apartment with en-suite.

[spectoacc] 28/5/2020 06:52

ST said 49% of Chinese students wouldn't take up their places if lectures moved online - sorry, can't recall what survey/basis that 49%.

[maddox] 28/5/2020 00:02

If students chose to defer for a year - what are they going to do? Go travelling? Um don't think that looks very possible. Get a job? Hmm, good luck with that one.

[chucko1] 27/5/2020 20:28

With contact tracing up and running, and likely vastly improved by September, students are likely to take up their places. There will be many things they can do, and for a 19 year old being educated at home on new and tricky material, sounds like a disaster to me.

What else - stay at home and do what? Defer for a year to get a better experience for one year out of three (or four) - and not have a job to do, in many cases, for that year? My money is on a pretty full uptake with good rental income. If they lose 20% of their income for next year, that basically halves their ability to pay the divi. I don't think thats worth 40% of the share price