Emap Share Discussion Threads

[broadwood] 29/5/2003 08:57

Generally favourable response to the results from press and analysts. Little downside and geared to media/ad recovery.

Stay with this one.

[broadwood] 28/5/2003 09:33

Director buying!!

Two Directors have bought over £90k worth of shares this morning.

[broadwood] 28/5/2003 08:48

EMAP's results today matched analyst's forecasts.Its magazine business continues to perform strongly and exhibitions and radio advertising is linked to economic recovery.
I think analysts will upgrade their forecasts after these results but watch for this over the next few days.
Imo it is one of the safer media stocks - needing to break out above about 850p which it looks capable of.

[broadwood] 23/5/2003 10:20

erdna (alias Sherlock Holmes)

I agree - they had a damaging experience in USA having to withdraw with their tail between their legs.

I'm hopeful Wednesday will see further recovery and breakout through resistance at about 836p.

[erdna] 23/5/2003 10:09

good luck with the new thread

emap is diverse enough to survive and prosper
They are also a very cost aware firm
I should know I have friends who work for their publications

They are very shrewd and have a good instinct for new titles,which they constantly try to create

[broadwood] 23/5/2003 09:54

EMAP has shown strength through a falling Market and will benefit once an ad recovery is seen to be on the way.We shall know more on Wednesday.

[broadwood] 23/5/2003 09:52

Scottish Radio's strong results today and positive outlook may signal better things also for EMAP

[broadwood] 03/3/2003 16:44

New contracts signed today. This is a geared play on ad recovery. I think its going in the right direction-shown relative strength against a falling market

[praipus] 30/1/2003 13:15

Radio licence hmmm not sure if this is a renewal or totally new either way any one know where they propose to raise the cash and what they could secure it against? (with NAV -1.50p)

Strong sell, all IMHO

[praipus] 28/1/2003 00:23

Is anybody buying this stock?

[praipus] 22/1/2003 00:59

Legal General piling in but the graphs look bad and the Liabilities + Intangible Assets exceeds whats left very strong sell on balance sheet alone!

Would Legal and General have to sell again if their liquidity ratios come under attack as the market slides...

[praipus] 21/1/2003 13:31

NAV 78p including intangibles! Excluding intangibles -150p !!!

[praipus] 21/1/2003 13:02

Whay arnt these 78p?

[howdlep] 02/8/2002 11:33

mm's raise bid for a few seconds to attract buyers. People sell immediately and then the original bid is re-instated. The trades then go through a couple of minutes later at a price that looks like a buy. It has happended several times today.

[howdlep] 02/8/2002 11:13

mm's trying to hide sells as buys. This one is going to test recent support at 648 and head lower still imo

[mackerel] 26/7/2002 18:30

Hi, Tilceo and chums. I've been neglecting this site recently. I note Tilceo's remarks about losing money, and without looking at the accounts (they're downstairs) I think much of this is to do with the write-offs pertaining to the Peterson sale loss. Take it from me, EMAP's magazines are almost always sold or closed before they start losing money - once profit falls below a certain percentage of the cost of producing it, it will almost always go. There are exceptions, especially when starting up a magazine. But each magazine, in principle, makes a profit. And if the overheads (including directors wages) were to bring this margin down too far then the only course is to get rid of the offending expense, or reduce it (so it's not impossible that one might see salaries, expenses or even share options for the top people reduced at some time in the future). Because management knows that it's just not possible to suddenly dramatically increase profit on most of the magazines.
Now I have to admit that I sold all my EMAP shares about three weeks ago, just before the latest big falls. I'm looking to buy back when things have settled down. If I can buy back at a price below what I sold them for, fine. But if I have to pay more, it doesn't matter so long as they go up.
Honestly, I think that for the immediate future, the quality of management and accounting will be held more important then ever before. And I believe EMAP is one of the few companies to have held together during this crisis. I endorse the opinion of pipenslippers, that the company has a loyal workforce with some of the solid old-style culture about them. It's still possible to walk into your managing director's office, tell him what a prat he is, and walk out with no fear of the sack. He's likely to make a one-to-one appointment to hear your views. It may not be a perfect company to work for, but they do their best, which is more than can be said for many other companies.

[games] 08/7/2002 13:38

Story Filed: Monday, July 08, 2002 8:16 AM EST

NEW YORK, Jul 8, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- FHM, the fastest growing magazine in the country, continues to post record-setting ad page totals that are unmatched in the magazine publishing industry.

Through August, FHM carries 467.33 ad pages, representing an increase of 75% over the same period last year - an astounding 200 page gain. FHM's August issue, the magazine's first single issue published in the month of August, carries 48.66 pages. The announcement was made today by Dana Fields, executive publisher and president.

"Our August issue is a showcase for the breadth of new business we have attracted to FHM this year," said Fields. "Advertisers recognize FHM's powerful international brand strength. The magazine is now an essential component for any marketer who wants to reach young men with their advertising message. FHM has the heat that advertisers demand in today's competitive marketplace."

The August issue of FHM includes first time advertisers Bombay Sapphire and Dodge Viper. The issue also features continued schedules from a wide range of advertisers new to the magazine in 2002, including Airwalk, Degree, Fruitopia, Haagen-Dazs, Hyundai, Icebreakers, Jack Daniels, LA Looks, Orbitz, Simple Shoes, Stolichnaya, Sun Coast Video and Wrigleys.

FHM increased its rate base to 1,000,000 in January 2002 and increased its publication schedule to 11 times a year (the magazine publishes a combined January/February issue). FHM's total paid circulation is up 63.5%, the largest increase among all titles audited by the ABC with a guaranteed rate base. FHM's skyrocketing circulation in 2002 puts it on course as the only men's magazine to deliver a bonus every half for 5 consecutive halves.

FHM is a publication of Emap Metro LLC, an Emap plc company. FHM is published in the following countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Australia, Turkey, Malaysia, France, South Africa, Philippines, Romania, Taiwan, the Netherlands, Hungary, Germany and Russia.


CONTACT: FHM, New York
Cathy O'Brien, 212/201-6970
[e-mail]

[harrykewill] 08/7/2002 10:50

no, I wasn't "alternatively valuing EMAP on how much money it makes" (reported EPS) I was explaining how everything you wrote about its break-up value was utter nonsense:

"if you broke the company up today .... then you'd lose 90% of your money straight away."

no no no

[tilceo] 05/7/2002 19:38

Harry, sure I agree you can alternatively value EMAP based on how much money it makes. But according to the reported earnings per share, over the last two years, not only did EMAP not make any money, it actually has lost money. In fact, in lost nearly three times as much money as it made in the previous three years put together.

So over the last five years total, EMAP has had total negative earnings per share and destruction of shareholder value of 173.1p. EMAP isn't making any money. They've been losing shareholder's money. This is the best demonstration of the economic value of the groups assets as a whole. If you ask me to value EMAP based on this appalling record, I actually believe it worth less than I do based on it's book value.

OK, sure there is the hope that earnings will recover, but even if they recover to the full 33p per share of a few years ago (based on similar turnover to recently) that still puts EMAP on a PE of around 25 at current prices. I'm not prepared to buy these shares in the hope to get a PE of 25 *if I'm lucky*! I've not seen such a bad bet in a long time.

[pipenslippers] 05/7/2002 10:54

I worked for Emap for a number of years and was amazed at the US debacle but dont underestimate the strength of the culture within the group. They may have become overconfident for a few years but the core management is from the Emap "old school" which grew it from nothing and has a fairly simple philosophy of screwing every last penny out of an asset. Oddly enough the group will thrive in a tough market with their simple game plan of buying flabby companies and driving the costs out. Not one of your "airy fairy" type operations but more of a "street fighter"......Have traded them a number of times in recent years and reckon they have another 10 years of ambition and growth before they lose the people and culture that grew them and gives the group its drive. They will then become just another "corporate" media group and probably an eventual victim instead of predator.

[tilceo] 28/6/2002 13:26

I'm talking about the book value as reported in the accounts, which is exactly as I say - one tenth of it's share price. Go take a look for yourself if you don't believe me!

If you are telling me that on break-up they could achieve more than the valuation in the books, then I would ask why management is not accurately reflecting market valuations in its accounts. Around 1990 a relative of mine ran a national magazine himself and was engaged in trying to find buyers for it. It was almost impossible to get the supposed brand value. Why? Because someone who might be interested in buying can just copy the format and the content and put it on the shelves themselves. And potential buyers point that out. There's no inherent magic to creating a magazine - there are no trade secrets like Microsoft Windows or Coca Cola. It's there for all to see and anyone to copy, and customers are easy to poach.

If I'd listened to average analyst opinion my whole life I wouldn't have a penny to my name now. Look at what analysts had been saying in the US recently about tech stocks with some analysts advising BUY while privately rubbishing the very same stocks. Valuation of stocks is very subjective, it's very qualitative and much of it is guesstimation. Do you realise that if you change the forward discount rate for example by as little as a fraction of one percent, the resulting valuation of the underlying stock changes by up to +-20% or more?

I would put to you that it is much more likely that the true book value of EMAP is much closer to the reported value in the accounts (one tenth of the current share price) than it is to an analysts sum-of-parts models that inflate brand values. If you want to base your purchase of EMAP based on saying this mag is worth £10m and that mag is worth £5m, and just taking their word for it then it's your funeral but that's not how I plan to approach my own investment.

[gurp] 25/6/2002 00:02

good informative opinion posts
I got out of emap a year ago but still monitor
surprised to note -ve p/e, but share price-wise it's all on sentiment and suspect that actually things could get worse with reduced personal spending and mags an easy reduction. media/advertising likely to fly on a general upturn but that seems to be forecast further and further away