Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[totaleclipse] 28/7/2014 10:21

Hi Silverfern. Of course that's right what you say about the hurdle needing more support beneath if the price is to grow as the company acquires more businesses but if all these businesses are being acquired becasue they can and do grow in line with corporate goals (otherwise why acquire them) then it should all be motoring along nicely. But the truth is there has been no sustained growth in shareholder value for a good number of years now- I sold some shares in 2010 for 32p and where are we now? 4 years on and 25% below the price then and struggling to hang on to the price around 25-26 p.

[silverfern] 28/7/2014 07:53

There was actually an intra day high of 43p in January which I took advantage of. My target was 40p. Producing shares the way they do the market cap would be much higher now if it got to that, and that in turn requires much more profit/eps etc to get there

[totaleclipse] 25/7/2014 09:35

I think it is going to be a very long time before we see the likes of 41p again. Well done to you.

[silverfern] 25/7/2014 08:14

THey had the aim of a £100m company in five years. THey have tried this through acquisition and now seemingly as an R&D company in molecular diagnostics. Yet right now their principle business remains the German company they took over 3 years ago- the rest are all jam tomorrow. Much of the £70m value is in share produced to fund acquisitions - put another way the current share price meant a market cap of £30m two years ago. Last year they made a loss. I think only the development of a unique IP process will move this and maybe they will sell to ALere one day for £100m because of their connections but since I sold (amazingly!) at 41p last year I have not been tempted back

[totaleclipse] 24/7/2014 19:14

Good post Eclectictrends- I wonder if the goal of a trade buyer is plausible these days. After all, the company admitted a year or so ago that it was diverted by a couple of acquisitive approaches that ultimately turned into nothing (price too high perhaps???) Yes the company's asset of 50,000 instruments placed is a wonderfully valuable asset that could attract someone wanting to buy market share or a presence in a market they are not already in but it is a never ending process to keep these machines working to generate revenue in a world that changes so rapidly in the technology field. I doubt if the instruments have a shelf life of more than 2-3 years before something better, faster, cheaper or just plain different comes along.

[eclectictrends] 23/7/2014 23:33

Hi totaleclipse
EKF are certainly going to have to "peddle very fast" to hit the full year expectations. The principle risk is that the larger Latin American instrument tenders are not completely within their control for when the various governments actually place the orders. On the Selah acquisition, aren't the sales numbers are only really for half of April and May?, when the company was acquired by EKF. At the EKF AGM the company stated in response to a question that Selah test volumes were 1900 tests for the month of April. I am not clear whether all the tests in their portfolio attract the $495/test rate, assuming they did that is £553k revenue for Selah in April.

The principle attraction for me of the shares, is a the company has an ambitious and "seasoned" management team in the diagnostics arena, with a good growing franchise in diabetes, and the molecular business pretty much in the price for nothing. Rightly or wrongly,and I accept this could change, the larger diagnostic global players are currently prepared to pay up to acquire the smaller competitors, and to a "trade buyer" EKF could easily look like an attractive target. So this investment probably depends on your investment timeframe, in my case I assuming 2-5 years.

[totaleclipse] 23/7/2014 20:25

So, just to continue my "disappointed of England" post, and having had the chance to reflect on today's numbers, you have to ask the question 'what exactly is going to put a rocket under these shares?' and the conclusion has to be that it's hard to see an event, acquisition or news item that is really going to herald some serious upside, short of the second half, and hence final, results dramatically exceeding expectations. It's all rather lack luster I am afraid and the chance of serious upside doesn't seem to be worth the risk inherent in such a small enterprise. What do the rest of you guys think?

[totaleclipse] 23/7/2014 14:20

Oh and it goes without saying that Selah missing the first quarters sales revenues target post acquisition is not at all encouraging.

[croasdalelfc] 22/7/2014 07:49

Important news re: PointMan . Interesting that similar news a couple of months ago was announced as an RNS - this one didn't.So PointMan can detect lung cancers and endometrial cancers in blood through DNA mutations. Pretty big news I'd say!They are advancing the research beyond historical samples from the welsh cancer bank to patients with known cancers. If it's proven in known cancers what is next? Screening of patients with suspected cancers who are normally diagnosed with biopsy or CT scan.If it's proven to be as specific and sensitive a test as a biopsy then it will replace biopsy as a diagnostic tests. Probably 3-5 years away but still good news and good for patients and saves money.

[totaleclipse] 17/7/2014 19:53

Well I never know whether the price is moving upwards, downwards or sideways. My Yahoo.com portfolio keeps marking the price as a gain or a loss of random proportions throughout the day- only to settle on a completely different closing price with trades at day's end. And the things I know about Bollinger Bands you could't fill a champagne flute with. If you can make any sense of these movements and make predictions based on them you're a better man than me Gungerdin

[andrewbaker] 16/7/2014 18:03

Look at the technicals: Bollinger Band aficionados will be rubbing their hands at the likelihood of a significant price rise: it's coming, and soon (unless the price breaks down in the next few days:I'm watching closely.)

[croasdalelfc] 15/7/2014 17:34

Small bit of news re:Selah .http://news.thermofisher.com/press-release/life-technologies/contract-research-organizations-adopt-ion-torrent-next-generation--0

[croasdalelfc] 09/7/2014 08:44

New website and rebranding of Stanbio Lifesciences:http://www.ekfdiagnostics.com/news_1_July_2014_Stanbio_Life_Sciences_rebranded_to_EKF_Life_Sciences_136.aspx

[totaleclipse] 08/7/2014 08:38

Great news today!

[croasdalelfc] 08/7/2014 07:56

A tasty morsel this morning. Adds about 2-3% to revenue going forward.NB the Compolab Ts is the Diaspect T analyser rebranded by the global distributor Fresnius Kabi

[croasdalelfc] 30/6/2014 19:31

(ii) Foreign exchange – Fair value riskTranslation exposures that arise on converting the results of overseas subsidiaries are not hedged. Net assets held in foreign currencies are hedged wherever practical by matching borrowings in the same currency. The principal exchange rates used by the Group in translating overseas profits and net assets into GBP are set out in the table below.Average Average rate rate Rate compared to GBP 2013 2012Year end rate 20131.203 54.500 4.983 1.657Year end rate 20121.233 49.636 5.032 1.626Euro 1.1831.232 49.442 5.163 1.590Russian Rouble Polish ZlotyUS Dollar50.155 4.959 1.572As a guide to the sensitivity of the Group's results to movements in foreign currency exchange rates, a one cent movement in the Euro and US Dollars to Sterling rate would impact annual earnings by approximately £19,000 and £44,000 respectively.The major headwind for this company! This is from the AR2013. The £/$ moved to 1.71 yesterday

[totaleclipse] 29/6/2014 19:10

Hi C. Yes, good points and the numbers could be very good- in which case expect a quick run up in share price but if they disappoint then there will be fall out. Just a month or two to wait until some further 'forward guidance' is released.

[totaleclipse] 24/6/2014 19:25

Hi Andrew. Thanks for the explanation but I still think your logic is whacky. I have a great deal of these shares- and they have failed to perform hence my frustration and negative stance. Also I think the strategy is getting a bit off target but I am happy to wait until the 6 months are posted. Yes I have just sold some and I will sell a great deal more if they fail to give a good announcement of 6 month figures. I am not expecting good results but wait to be pleasantly surprised. It's up to them really

[andrewbaker] 24/6/2014 11:22

Oh, forgot to say what I came here today to say in the first instance:

I feel that weak holders have been selling due to the time they have held without much if any return, or even a loss given the price drifting down of late, and that when this selling pressure has abated, the price will move back up; and maybe by then the business itself will be doing or have done something to engender more positive interest in it.

[andrewbaker] 24/6/2014 11:18

Hello totaleclipse,

I already own this share, and to buy more would unbalance my portfolio, which I would do in two situations;

1) Further weakness, making them even cheaper than I have already paid (and given at the time I still believed in the business {as one that will be successful in the future}).

2) A strong rise in price, which would indicate that something was afoot, and so more shares at a higher price would be worth buying.

In either case, I would look to re-balance my portfolio at some point afterwards, and hopefully would do so by taking some profits off of the table.

[totaleclipse] 23/6/2014 09:18

Decisions, decisions. Going nowhere- Going to start off loading.

[totaleclipse] 20/6/2014 09:17

About T B-H's share options: Quote from the announcement "....and on the premise that certain, to be agreed, pre-conditions have been satisfied." Who thinks as I do that these pre-conditions should be published. The goals are disclosed for other directors' share options after all- usually share price or Earnings measures.

[totaleclipse] 19/6/2014 17:06

Anyone have any views on directors share options i.e. the awarding of them? One sign (IMHO) that things are turning into a 'life style' business for the key executives is the awarding of share options setting the bar lower and lower each time (i.e. I mean the option price getting lower and lower). I note that Tito B-H has been awarded share options at 35p- a bit of a stretch from today's price but not exactly uncharted territory- and where the recent rights issue was set, and then further tranches at the market price on the day after completing 1 yr and 2 yrs in the post. This is quite a nice perk and it would be interesting to see what actually he has to do to get them- only a vague hint at that in the PR. But it means he can benefit from upside without having to stump up his own hard earned dosh- unlike the rest of us.