Edin. New It Share Discussion Threads

[gibbs1] 19/6/2024 15:45

Will the World See a “Staggering221; Oil Supply Glut in 2030?

English - OilPrice.com

By Robert Rapier - Jun 19, 2024, 9:00 AM CDT

The IEA predicts a future oil supply glut due to electric vehicles and rising non-OPEC+ production.

Past predictions of oil decline have been inaccurate, such as Bloomberg's forecast of a crash in 2023.

The IEA's current prediction relies on assumptions that may not hold true.

Oil

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its Oil 2024 report, which examines the global dynamics for oil supply security, refining, trade, and investment. The report received considerable media attention because of the projection that by 2030 oil production will reach “a staggering 8 million barrels per day above projected global demand.”

The report cites the proliferation of electric vehicles, the growing utilization of renewable energy, and China’s declining oil consumption growth are key contributors to this projected trend. However, the IEA still expects oil demand to grow. From a global base of 103.2 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2024, the IEA believes demand will grow to 105.6 million BPD by 2029 and decrease slightly to 105.5 million BPD in 2030 (Table 2 in the report).

Supply growth is expected to be largely driven by non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, which are projected to pump at record levels. Non-OPEC+ countries are predicted to add 6 million BPD of supply by 2030.

In contrast, OPEC+ output is expected to remain relatively steady, with voluntary production cuts being a significant factor in maintaining market stability. The imbalance is projected to have far-reaching implications for geopolitics and may diminish OPEC’s capacity to influence oil prices.

The IEA makes its supply projections in part by looking at announced projects. However, to project a supply excess, the IEA also must make assumptions regarding depletion in existing fields, future discoveries, and demand trends.

In 2016, Bloomberg made a similar prediction in Another Oil Crash Is Coming, and There May Be No Recovery. The article looked at trends of electric vehicle sales, and wrote “If that level of growth continues, the crash-triggering benchmark of 2 million barrels of reduced demand could come as early as 2023.” I took exception to the assumptions that were made in the Bloomberg article and concluded:

“Thus, don’t be surprised in 2023 to see that instead of crude oil demand being 2 million bpd lower than today per the Bloomberg article, we see that oil demand grew despite the continued growth of electric vehicles.”

That is in fact what happened. Global oil demand in 2023 was around 5 million BPD higher than it was in 2016 when Bloomberg made the prediction, and as we know oil prices in 2023 certainly didn’t signal an oversupply.

But consider what might have happened if the markets took the Bloomberg projections at face value. If investments in oil projects had dried up because of the predicted supply excess, instead of oil prices averaging $78 per barrel in 2023, they might have averaged $130-$150 as supply fell short of demand. Volatile prices can be a consequence of wrong projections.

The bottom line is that it is hard to make these projections, as Bloomberg learned. For that matter, if you had predicted in 2005 that U.S. oil production would grow at the fastest rate of any country over the next decade, energy analysts everywhere would have laughed. But that’s exactly what happened.

I don’t know if the IEA projection will prove to be accurate. I do know that over the past 10 months, U.S. oil production — although still near record levels — has flattened. Most of the best tight oil sites in the U.S. have been drilled. U.S. oil production may be reaching a plateau, while the IEA is projecting another 2 million BPD of growth in the U.S. by 2030.

There are many assumptions behind the IEA’s projection. All it takes is for one or two of those assumptions to be wrong, and the IEA’s projections of a “staggering221; excess could be staggeringly wrong.

By Robert Rapier via rrapier.com

oilprice.com

[misca2] 19/6/2024 07:00

Technical analysis trends

Short Term Mid-Term Long Term

Resistance 14.38 14.71 14.50

Support 13.51 13.51 13.51

[sarkasm] 18/6/2024 15:50

Eni Sells 10 Percent of Stake in Saipem


by Paul Anderson
|
Rigzone Staff


| Friday, June 14, 2024 | 3:08 AM EST


Eni received $421.9 million from institutional investors in the transaction.


Italian energy major Eni S.p.A. wrapped up the sale of a 10 percent stake in Saipem S.p.A. The company raked in EUR 393 million ($421.9 million), at EUR 1.97 per share.

Eni said in a press release that the settlement of the transaction will take place on June 14.

[the grumpy old men] 18/6/2024 15:38

Borsa Italiana 10:37:42 2024-06-18 am EDT


13.79 EUR +1.88%

[waldron] 18/6/2024 14:40

Latest Dividends

Summary Previous dividend Next dividend

Status Paid Declared

Type Quarterly Quarterly

Per share 23¢ 25¢

Declaration date 10 May 2023 (Wed) 11 Jan 2024 (Thu)

Ex-div date 20 May 2024 (Mon) 23 Sep 2024 (Mon)

Pay date 22 May 2024 (Wed) 25 Sep 2024 (Wed)

[waldron] 17/6/2024 09:54

Borsa Italiana 04:53:55 2024-06-17 am EDT

13.54 EUR +0.27%

[misca2] 22/5/2024 20:45

Eni Is Studying 20% Stake Sale in Biorefining Unit Enilive

Antonio Vanuzzo and Alberto Brambilla, Bloomberg News



The company is working with advisers and values the whole business about €10 billion.


(Bloomberg) -- Eni SpA is studying a sale of a 20% stake in its biorefining unit Enilive as it received expressions of interest from potential suitors, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Italian energy company is now working with advisers and values the whole business about €10 billion ($10.8 billion), said the people, who asked not to be named as they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. Discussions over the size of the stake sale are at an early stage and the company is still assessing options for the unit, they said.

A representative for Eni declined to comment.

Read More: Eni CEO Confirms Plan to Sell Stake in Enilive or List Unit

Eni has embarked on a reorganization to help fund a transition to gas and renewable energy. Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi is pursuing a so-called “satellite model” for the company, which entails listing divisions or partnering with external investors to develop them.

The new strategy started with the disposal of a minority stake in Eni’s green unit Plenitude to Energy Infrastructure Partners AG in 2023. The company is also targeting to split off its carbon capture unit and its biochemical subsidiary Novamont by 2027.

Enilive comprises biorefining and biomethane assets as well as mobility solutions. It posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of €250 million in the first three months of 2024, up 27% compared to the same period last year.

[grupo guitarlumber] 21/5/2024 06:10

NEWS

Eni Gets $210MM Funding to Grow Biofuels Production in Kenya

by Jov Onsat
|
Rigzone Staff


| Monday, May 20, 2024 | 11:26 AM EST


Eni secured $210 million in financing from the Italian government and the World Bank to grow its production of mainly oilseed-based biofuels in Kenya.
Image by HPS-Digitalstudio via iStock

Eni SPA has secured $210 million in financing from the Italian government and the World Bank to grow its production of mainly oilseed-based biofuels in Kenya.

The International Finance Corp. (IFC), the World Bank’s private sector arm, is contributing $135 million while the Italian Climate Fund is chipping in $75 million, according to a joint press release by Eni and the two backers. The investments were announced at the Africa CEO Forum last week in Rwanda’s capital Kigali.

The new support will help Italian government-controlled Eni build new processing plants and raise oilseeds feedstock production to 500,000 tons a year from 44,000, Eni said.

“The project will also work with farmers, providing inputs, mechanization, logistics, certification, and training to help them produce oilseeds, which are grown on degraded land not suitable for food production and/or grown in rotation with food crops, helping enhance soil fertility”, the news release stated.

Eni chief executive Claudio Descalzi said in a statement, “By partnering with IFC and the Italian Climate Fund, Eni further enhances its agrifeed stock projects in Kenya, expanding its reach to up to 200,000 small-scale Kenyan farmers over the next five years, and strengthens the country’s integration in the biofuels value chain”.

“This cooperation fits with Eni’s model to leverage public-private partnerships to support communities, generate long-term value, and create virtuous, lasting alliances with African countries”, Descalzi added.

IFC managing director Makhtar Diop was quoted as saying, “This project marks the dawn of a new industry for Kenya, an industry where Kenya could become a world leader”.

Eni noted world biofuel demand has climbed nearly six percent annually in the last five years driven by the transport sector. Using data from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2022 report, Eni said, “In a net zero by 2050 scenario, the use of biofuels in transportation is expected to more than double to 9 percent by 2030”.

“While production of sustainable biofuels is currently more expensive than traditional fuels, costs are expected to fall as more capacity is built up and technology advances. This new investment will support these efforts”, Eni added.

Eni, which claims to be the first company to convert traditional refineries into biorefineries through two projects in Italy, plans to expand its biorefining capacity from 1.65 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) as of 2023 to over five MMtpa by 2030.

Eni has pledged to go carbon dioxide-neutral by 2050, and the “development of biofuels is one of the Eni’s Just Transition drivers based on the circular economy”, as stated in Eni’s 2022 annual report on its net zero progress.

Besides funding, IFC will provide advisory services for the development of the advanced biofuel value chain in the Eastern African country “including through the promotion of good agricultural practices and the professionalization of farmer aggregators”, Eni said.

Eni plans to replicate its Kenyan biofuels campaign in other countries in Africa.

It said it will work to obtain International Sustainability and Carbon Certification for all its biofuel feedstocks.

To contact the author, email [e-mail]

[ariane] 18/5/2024 07:28

ENI : JP Morgan reaffirms its Buy rating


May 16, 2024 at 08:13 am EDT

In a research note, JP Morgan analyst Christyan Malek has maintained his recommendation on the stock with a Buy rating. The target price has been raised from EUR 18.50 to EUR 19.50.


MarketScreener with dpa-AFX Analyser

[ariane] 18/5/2024 07:24

Analysts' Consensus


Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts
21

Last Close Price
14.83 EUR

Average target price
16.94 EUR
Spread / Average Target
+14.21%

High Price Target
19.5 EUR
Spread / Highest target
+31.51%

Low Price Target
14 EUR
Spread / Lowest Target
-5.58%

[ariane] 18/5/2024 07:20

Eni's Kenyan Unit Bags $210 Million Investment to Boost Oilseeds Production

May 17, 2024 at 07:41 am EDT


(MT Newswires) -- Eni's (ENI.MI) Kenyan unit received a $210 million investment from the World Bank's International Finance Corp. and the Italian Climate Fund to expand its biofuels production.

The funding will enable the increased production of Kenya-grown advanced biofuel feedstock through the construction of new processing facilities, the Italian energy company said Friday.

The project aims to boost the oilseed output to 500,000 tons from 44,000 tons per year.

[waldron] 16/5/2024 10:58

Upcoming events on Eni S.p.A

2024-May-19 Final dividend

[the grumpy old men] 16/5/2024 08:22

Italy Sells $1.5 Billion Stake in Eni

May 16, 2024 at 02:53 am EDT


By Adria Calatayud

Italy's government sold a stake in Eni for 1.37 billion euros ($1.49 billion), reducing its ownership in the energy group to about 2%.

The Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance said Thursday that it sold shares representing a 2.8% stake in Eni for EUR14.855 each, which represents a 1.7% discount to the company's closing share price on Wednesday.

The sale is expected to settle on May 20.

The ministry said on Wednesday that it had committed not to sell additional shares in the company for 90 days.

Write to Adria Calatayud at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-16-24 0252ET

[maywillow] 15/5/2024 18:37

Eni S.p.A. Shareholders Greenlight Dividend and Buyback


TipRanks Newsdesk

May 15, 2024, 06:30 PM

Eni S.P.A. (E) has released an update.





Eni S.p.A. shareholders approved the 2023 financial statements, reporting a net profit of €3.272 billion, which will be allocated to the reserve.


They authorized a comprehensive share buyback program of up to €3.5 billion, extending until April 2025, and approved an Employee Stock Ownership Plan for 2024-2026.

Additionally, a dividend of €1 per share will be distributed in four equal installments using available reserves.

[adrian j boris] 10/5/2024 07:18

Latest Dividends

Summary Previous dividend Next dividend

Status Paid Declared

Type Quarterly Quarterly

Per share 24¢ 23¢

Declaration date 10 May 2023 (Wed) 10 May 2023 (Wed)

Ex-div date 18 Mar 2024 (Mon) 20 May 2024 (Mon)

Pay date 20 Mar 2024 (Wed) 22 May 2024 (Wed)

[adrian j boris] 10/5/2024 07:16

BC Raises Price Target on ENI to EUR18 From EUR17, Keeps Sector Perform Rating
May 09, 2024 at 07:20 am EDT

(MT Newswires) -- ENI's (E) Italy-traded shares have an average investment rating of outperform among analysts polled by Capital IQ, with price targets ranging from EUR14 to EUR19.50.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here:

Price: 32.10, Change: +0.12, Percent Change: +0.38

[the grumpy old men] 09/5/2024 10:41

Eni Issues $2.25 Billion of Fixed-rate Bonds


May 09, 2024 at 12:22 am EDT

(MT Newswires) -- Eni (ENI.MI) said Wednesday it issued two series of fixed-rate bonds with a combined principal amount of $2.25 billion.

The Italian energy company's offering comprised $1 billion of 5.50% bonds due May 15, 2034, and $1.25 billion of 5.95% bonds due May 15, 2054. The reoffer price for the 2034 bonds was 99.333% and 98.828% for the 2054 bonds.

Eni earmarked proceeds from the issuances for ordinary financing needs.

[the grumpy old men] 08/3/2024 09:23

Eni buys back own shares for more than EUR30 million
March 06, 2024 at 06:58 am EST


(Alliance News) - Eni Spa announced Wednesday that it bought back 2.1 million shares between Feb. 26 and March 1.

The shares were purchased at an average price of EUR14.3004 for a total value of EUR30.0 million.

As a result of these purchases, Eni holds 181.0 million shares or 5.4 percent of its share capital.

Eni trades in the green by 0.9 percent at EUR14.64 per azone.

By Chiara Bruschi, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to [e-mail]

[the grumpy old men] 08/3/2024 09:19

courtesy of
subsurface
8 Mar '24 - 08:52 - 4347 of 4347
0 1 0
General interest

Cote d'Ivoire: Eni announces a major discovery in block CI-205, offshore Cote d'Ivoire


The Calao discovery was greeted as a significant one. Drilling operations took place approx. 45 kms off the coast in block CI-205, reaching a depth of 5,000 meters in water depths of around 2,200 meters. The well encountered light oil, gas, and condensates in various intervals of Cenomanian age




Tullow are in blocks CI 524 and 803 against the boundary line with Ghana

[waldron] 31/1/2024 19:16

ENERGYVOICE


Eni completes $4.9bn acquisition of Neptune Energy

By Allister Thomas
31/01/2024, 5:11 pm

Eni is growing its international portfolio with the deal, including the UK.

Italian oil giant Eni (BIT: ENI) has completed its multibillion-dollar takeover of North Sea operator Neptune Energy.

The firm’s $4.9bn acquisition plan was unveiled in June, following months of speculation as Neptune’s private equity owners make an exit.

Eni has acquired the firm’s entire operation, save for Norway – which is going to Var Energi (itself part owned by Eni) through a separate deal – and the business in Germany, which has had its own carve-out.

The Italian major has a limited operation in the UK meaning there is no expected impact on the workforce at Neptune, covering around 200 people between Aberdeen and London.

However, the future of the top leadership team, reported to own 1% of the business and due for a whopping payday, led by executive chairman Sam Laidlaw, is unclear.


Eni said in June that it was taking on a “world class portfolio” covering Western Europe, North Africa, Indonesia and Australia.

In the UK, Eni is acquiring the Cygnus gas field, the flagship asset of Neptune Energy and one of the country’s most prolific gas fields.

Other notable assets include the recent Seagull tie-back to BP’s ETAP hub.

Prior to the deal, Neptune Energy was owned by China Investment Corporation, funds advised by Carlyle Group and CVC Capital Partners, and some management owners.
CCS

Eni is also gaining access to Neptune Energy’s recently-awarded carbon capture and storage (CCS) sites, having won a trio of awards during 2023’s licensing round.

CCS is a burgeoning area of interest for the Milan-headquartered firm, which runs the HyNet development in North-west England.

Eni itself won a licence award during last year’s CCS round for its Hewett gas field in the southern North Sea.

The ENI SpA logo sits on the company’s headquarters office building seen through trees in Rome, Italy,

Announcing the deal closure today, Eni pointed to assets it is acquiring internationally.

“The acquisition is strategic in terms of increased gas production in North Africa, where Eni consolidates its position as the leading international energy company, and in Northern Europe, where the transaction opens up new CCS opportunities.

“Eni regards CCS as a key lever in its decarbonization strategy and there are further possible synergies with the projects Neptune is pursuing in Norway and the Netherlands.”
Norway

Var Energi is acquiring stakes in 12 producing assets, three of which will be as operator.

The deal adds 67,000 barrels of daily production, and 265m to its 2P reserves.

Neptune Norway will operate as a fully-owned subsidiary of Var Energi and change its name to Var Energi Norge.

CEO Nick Walker said: “Var Energi is one of the fastest growing E&P companies in the world and is on track to nearly double production by end-2025. The acquisition of Neptune Norway is an important step to this end. Neptune Norway’s complementary assets and highly skilled organisation are a perfect fit to Vår Energi.

“We will work as one strong team, a company committed to delivering high value barrels from one of the most attractive oil and gas regions in the world with low cost and low emissions. The transaction is cash generative from day one supporting attractive and predictable dividends going forward.”

[la forge] 31/1/2024 08:12

Eni confirms decision to build bio-refinery in Livorno, Italy


By NS Energy Staff Writer 30 Jan 2024

The transformation of the Livorno industrial site, in line with previous successful conversions in Porto Marghera (2014) and Gela (2019), underscores Eni's commitment to its decarbonisation strategy


Eni has reaffirmed its commitment to constructing Italy’s third bio-refinery in Livorno. Initially disclosed in October 2022 and subsequently supported by an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) application in November 2022, the project is currently pending official approvals.

The comprehensive plan encompasses the establishment of three novel facilities dedicated to producing hydrogenated biofuels: a biogenic feedstock pre-treatment unit, a 500,000 tonnes/year Ecofining plant, and a facility designed for hydrogen production from methane gas.

The transformation of the Livorno industrial site, in line with previous successful conversions in Porto Marghera (2014) and Gela (2019), underscores Eni’s commitment to its decarbonisation strategy.

This strategy is geared towards attaining carbon neutrality by the year 2050 and boosting bio-refining capacity from the current 1.65 million tonnes per year to over 5 million tonnes per year by 2030.

Aligned with the strategic choice to convert the Livorno refinery, ensuring the site’s resilience in terms of both production and employment, Eni has ceased crude oil imports and commenced the closure of lubricants production lines and the Topping plant. Fuel distribution in the region will be ensured by importing finished and semi-finished products.

Preparatory activities for the construction of the three upcoming bio-refining plants are currently in progress, with construction slated to begin post-regulatory approval. The anticipated timeline for completion and commissioning is set for 2026.

The upcoming bio-refining plants are designed to process diverse biogenic feedstocks, primarily sourced from vegetable waste and residue, to generate HVO diesel, HVO naphtha, and bio-LPG. Eni, operating through Enilive, holds the position as the second-largest producer of hydrogenated biofuels (HVO) in Europe and the third-largest globally.

Eni’s growth strategy is propelled by the growing demand for biofuels in the mobility sector in Europe and Italy. This demand is fuelled by the need to meet emission reduction targets outlined in the recently sanctioned RED III (Renewable Energy Directive) and adhere to Italian regulations mandating the incorporation of pure biofuels. Projections indicate a 65% surge in global demand for hydrogenated biofuels from 2024 to 2028.

[grupo guitarlumber] 04/1/2024 11:24

Borsa Italiana

Name Price Change %

Eni

15.6 +1.05%