Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[timbo_slice] 22/7/2024 09:46

Long wait for stupid.

[kittybiscuits] 21/7/2024 16:53

You’re right, they are two different things. Worth is a made up number, a work of fiction or a future target, value or purchase price is today’s reality. The reality is c4.3p.

Don’t get me wrong, I want this to be well north of 20p. Well north of it, but long road ahead to get there. BUT we are now at least, on the right road. I remain Uber bullish and add as and when I can.

[investingisatrickygame] 21/7/2024 15:39

What they are worth and what they are currently priced at can be two different things.

For you to buy some in the morning, 4.3p+

For company x to buy Eden in the morning, north of 20p.

This is why we are invested.

[kittybiscuits] 21/7/2024 15:13

I love the positive talk, really do but the shares are not worth 20p or 50p. They are currently worth 4.3p.

[investingisatrickygame] 21/7/2024 13:59

If you ask management, they will tell you that the addressable market is a moving feast from year to year. That to me, is understandable.

Where are we today? We have two products, Mevalone and Cedroz, both with an increasing regulatory footprint, approvals and label extensions.

Corteva usually refer in their videos to Ecovelex being their product. In commercial agreements that may not be so, but it is the way they position it. With no incumbent product in Europe (?) the addressable market will be 100% of what is available, will it not?! With a 15 year regulatory approval, when it comes along, that is an awful lot of revenue and profit for both Corteva and Eden. Add Sunflowers, (perhaps) and other geographies and there is no way Corteva is going to want to have anyone else have direct access to 'their' bird repellent, without them being the licensee or re-seller. I mention this because to me, when assessing shareholder value, I can look to Corteva, 15 years, bird repellent and be secure in my mind that this is worth many, many times today's share price. That alone would be a starting point for anyone, in due course, looking to make an offer for Eden. That alone makes Eden a profitable company and a potential bid target.

I assume the insecticide will be an Eden product because they have developed it themselves, without an approach from another, as with Corteva, at least to the best of my knowledge. The insecticide will/should, be Eden's biggest opportunity in terms of sales revenue.

Finally, last time I calculated, with the current shares in issue, £5 million profit was worth 28p a share on 30* earnings with nothing built in for the future. Alex Abrey recently said on film, that in management's opinion the shares are worth north of 20p today, thus exceeding the Cavendish 20p target. A £10 million profit on the same basis is 56p a share. I don't think we are too many steps away in execution or time to exceed both of these numbers.

[money never sleeps] 21/7/2024 09:31

I agree. The slides don't really help anyone. Eden needs to show current addressable market - NO asterisk. And give numbers for annual revenues per segment. They obviously don't want to show how that looks - or they would already do it. Fair?

[alchemy] 21/7/2024 08:39

Eden is in Mesopotamia well within Planet Earth

[money never sleeps] 21/7/2024 07:22

Glad it's not just me then. In my mind it is undoubtedly that Eden is being deliberately obtuse.

For example, with Mevalone sales in France, if DM = 10x addressable market, why bother printing the gross addressable market figure and then put in the sneaky asterisk...?

I hope you are right about Ecovelex as it promises to be a real game-changer on sales revenues.

[supersonico] 21/7/2024 06:28

Yes I agree with your question about addressable market and the vague and wholly unhelpful to investors caveat '*Based on peak sales and a full label of all key targets and crops' that we see in the small print of each slide.

This is classic Eden inthecoming jargon which effectively makes any estimates of sales and timelines based on the numbers they offer utterly vague and impossible to gauge and leaves the sceptical reader with the feeling that Eden are being unhelpfully opaque despite the progress clearly being made. Having said that I appreciate the imprecise and elastic difficulty of predicting future sales...but imo the current expression is unsatisfactory.

Ecovelex I expect to be approved in the EU this year based upon the slides presented by Leonardo Costa at various events.

[money never sleeps] 21/7/2024 06:11

Both. But frankly, I am totally confused by those slides. They need a re-think.

What does current addressable market mean - by territory? But without the full label for each product we should be told what % of the market is currently available/ addressable. Not all of it..?

Ecovelex has no authorisation so we cannot expect anyhing until 2025/26..? But it should ramp up quickly when it does.

[supersonico] 21/7/2024 05:51

MNS,

Re..Insecticide

Is that due to a conservative attitude or that the Eden slide @43.09m looks to be a little confusing with it's US projections put under the 'future' header after the EU/UK numbers but in the written note above it says anticipated first sales in US in 2025 with the EU/ UK to follow in 2026?



Slide 20;

[money never sleeps] 20/7/2024 22:17

By FY26E I hope for £3m revenues for each of the fungicides, nematicide & seed treatment = £9m. Zero for insecticide and other non-agric

[wilmer100] 20/7/2024 21:58

Well, I'm thinking sales of £30m for each product category. Fungicides, insecticides, seed treatments and nematicides.£120m. Then also you have encapsulation of other companies products because they can't use plastic anymore. And on top of that you have Animal health and consumer products although they are not a priority (in my opinion).All this I'd say in the next 4 years if the good luck fairies are on our side. They most probably are.

[chrischas] 20/7/2024 20:38

It won't even get lift off to 20p.Unless we all take a spaceship to Planet Eden

[alchemy] 20/7/2024 18:35

Modelling .I went on a financial modelling course in the sixties probably seven years or so before calcstar and VisiCalc. Excel comes much later .The lure of what ifs and so on lingers with me . And so I came to wonder what parameters could lead us to an share price of one pound? And how soon could it happen. Didn't really need a spreadsheet.Re-ratings do happen but to get from 4.5 to £1 by 2026? Surely I'm "blowing smoke"?Watcher think?Well once we start performing what could be wrong with a forward looking p/e of 60? (Backward looking might be as little as 30 . So on 2025 earnings of 5 that could be an share price of 22-28 p .)Continuing the Visionary Path.60 times 90 p gives 540 - marcap of half a mill . And let's call 90p a £.So we make 15 million contribution with 30 million sales and overheads have grown to 5 million60 times 10 = 600 and that's it.Bonkers ? But with Ecovolex and Insecticide and in 2026 you're looking forward to 2027 and you've crossed hurdles. Hurdles such as Profit and hundred million marcaps.I've seen re-ratings but what am I on?

[supersonico] 20/7/2024 11:55

Canary told you so..

30.9 million and counting
Rancourt et al. Excess Mortality Report: A Suppressive Act of Empire.

[attyg] 19/7/2024 14:46

18046

That possible use has been known for over 15 years.

Once funds allow...

So many opportunities for Eden.

[money never sleeps] 19/7/2024 12:12

Did you miss the yoy growing revenues?

[supersonico] 19/7/2024 11:27

Best~Guess,

Last week it was 'might' this week it's 'if'

#Lacks~conviction.

[alchemy] 19/7/2024 10:52

Lots to chew on there but imposdible to digest

[ravenna23] 19/7/2024 10:39

Timbo, if you seriously believe in Eden product, put your money into Corteva, as they have the distribution rights. I note that the new sales appointment was employed with SIPCAM. I suspect that there is a side deal here guaranteeing his old job back if things go wrong. I believe SIPCAM are Eden's largest shareholder. Sorry but Eden have continually failed to generate sales revenue and with Corteva owning distribution you are more likely to win the Lottery than have success with this investment. The fact that there are so many pumpers of this share is wholly suspicious. Corteva will end up owning the IP after they put it into administration.