Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[timbo_slice] 11/1/2024 09:20

Neuts, I have one name it is the Timbo_Slice username. I do not post here or anywhere else under a different name. I do not believe you can say the same.

[supersonico] 11/1/2024 08:48

@3min Smith.

Sipcam "building their sustainable pesticide business in the US largely around Mevalone so we've all been eagerly anticipating this, they have absolutely hit the ground running"





But sadly no anticipated inthecoming $$numbers to impart.

[timbo_slice] 11/1/2024 08:15

Neuts - if you don't mention my name (which you did) I won't post...

[neutralpov] 11/1/2024 08:05

OBSESSION, but not nice smelling like CK's.

[timbo_slice] 11/1/2024 08:00

Not me Neutsy. Enjoy the OJ.

[neutralpov] 11/1/2024 07:56

The shared obsession with me, as evidenced above, is better than a fingerprint. ;D

So, again, fkwit:

Kittybiscuits = Timbo_Slice = Northwick etc.

Says it all, chortle.

Your impotent rage should be directed at those who conned you, not at me.

But you are exceptionally stupid and I am sure your stupidity has landed you in similar messes before.

IF YOU really NEED TO ASK ABOUT THE REASON FOR THE APPALLING PUMP BY DAILY MAIL'S CHEATS, YOUR FAMILY, iF YOU STILL HAVE ONE, NEEDS TO EXTRACT YOU FROM THE SMkt pronto AND CONSIGN/COMMIT YOU TO A NH, WITH A HOT CHOC AMD A BLANKET.

Chuckle, OJ and more zero pee.

[timbo_slice] 11/1/2024 07:28

Neuts, I am only me. I only have one username. I do not know about anyone else (including you).I've been in EDEN for over 10 years. I am not selling. I don't believe any comments on this board make a difference to the price. What does make a difference is if it is the national press. Why don't you use that researcher you employ and investigate how EDEN ended up in the Daily Mail tip sheet... I'd love a four-fold increase from the current price (if you can make it happen again)..... Pumpo.

[neutralpov] 11/1/2024 07:02

Kittybiscuits = Timbo_Slice = Northwick etc.

Says it all, chortle.

Your impotent rage should be directed at those who conned you, not at me.

But you are exceptionally stupid and I am sure your stupidity has landed you in similar messes before.

Chuckle, OJ and zero pee.

[kittybiscuits] 11/1/2024 01:20

Hey Idiot,
Why would this be heading to zero, when Eden have just launched their biggest product to date, (ecovelux, as I assume you are too stupid to know) which the world is crying out for. Italy has already approved the product and other countries will follow suit no doubt. Corteva are already looking for a label extension as well. I assume you have heard of them???!!

Eden have also just announced that the biggest and most important state in the USA has approved their Mevalone product.

And Edens latest product, the insecticide is due to be announced in the coming months, which Eden have already said is the biggest potential market for them…. I think opportunity for this to go to zero has passed. You’re too late sucker and all the rest of the loons at share prophets.

Get onboard, or get lost. I don’t care which…. Going to zero is just a big fat lie from you and you know it.

[alchemy] 10/1/2024 15:24

I agree but nothing I wrote diagrees with you .

[money never sleeps] 10/1/2024 15:15

I bought a decent slice this morning - and another dollop just now - neither trade has been printed. I share Atty G's views on overall prospects. IMO the growth should continue into making Eden a cash positive business in 2024.

[jeanesy] 10/1/2024 14:32

Share buying far outweighs sells so far today and yet the shares are currently down. Must be some inreported sells not yet shown
California mevalone deal sounds like it has has come too late for it to be significant this year from the interview on proactive

[quazie12] 10/1/2024 14:03

Eh ? PE ratios are price expressed as a multiple of profit......not turnover

[supersonico] 10/1/2024 13:26

Eden Research "very optimistic about how 2024 will look"

[supersonico] 10/1/2024 10:13

As Atty rightly says The over promising Drag from the Inthecoming and Backtoschool eras will have to be extinguished.

He that inthecoming me once, its his fault; but if twice, its backtoschool for me.

'Sales visibility will become better and the market can then begin to take the BoD at their word'.

[attyg] 10/1/2024 09:30

Money - in haste.

The addressable market (as I understand it) has always been the total market value at Eden's sales prices (ie not the final product sales prices) for the products which Eden has received approval upon and for the disease targets authorised. So, no mevalone sales for powdery or downy mildew.

Regulatory approval is the critical issue.

Eden has had trouble generating sales - many being sceptical of how it can break into and disrupt existing products etc. Sadly the EU kept changing the goal posts regarding regulatory approval as well as operating as I outlined in an earlier post - take your time.

Consequently, many have been able to throw bricks at Eden stating sales will not materialise.

As a result Cenkos and others have not wanted to get egg on their face with bullish sales performance and for various reasons, Eden has indeed just managed to get across the line with sales "market expectations".

In my view, things are now going to change.

Regulatory approvals in the US for mevalone and Cedroz and EA in Italy for ecovelex

Ecovelex SHOULD in my view generate good sales - I am hoping for more than one million in 2023 - and at good margins.

I am hoping for much more in 2024 - Cavendish has £1.6m for the whole of 2024.

Things will become much clearer following the Trading Update and then a new Cavendish note with updated financials.
I (my view) am expecting a profit in 2024 - I will have to eat humble pie if Cavendish produce a note with a loss.

Sales visibility will become better and the market can then begin to take the BoD at their word. Plus we can expect Cavendish to have a range of sales rather than just the base case.

It should become clearer soon - I hope.

I am an uber bull - so DYOR

[jeanesy] 10/1/2024 08:41

we need the company to spell out what it expects in sales . News due soon ?

[alchemy] 10/1/2024 08:41

Resistance at 6.25 . So will the January update take that out? Going back to P/Es there are two sorts thereof are there not. Historic and perspective .If we are always worth 30 historic then as we lead up to results each time we may be "worth" 40 or more for spells of time?

[alchemy] 10/1/2024 08:30

Now that's what bulletin boards and collegial debate is about !

[money never sleeps] 10/1/2024 08:22

AttyG or anyone who can please help me with this.... . Maybe it is just me being simple, but I find the slides a tad confusing to read. How should one interpret this?
AA refers (@14:28) of the video presentation (Nov 2023) to a 'peak' market (i.e all geographies /crop labels / addressable diseases) of 15m Euros (US$ 17-18m). The slide quotes current "potential" Southern EU sales market at 3m Euros, but AA then later mentions that Mevalone sales for FY ending 2023 are already running at just under US$3m (global, presumably) – but only c.20% of their expected achievable revenue from this product.
The target figures for US market quoted by SS are 9m euros combined for Mevalone (6m euros) and Cedroz (3m euros), but of course we don't yet have authorisation for powdery mildew included, so I imagine we can only expect to garner a small fraction of that market right now.
For Cedroz though, AA talks about "... strong sales growth this year". The 2022 presentation barely mentions Cedroz from what I can see.
Cavendish are saying £4.9m in product sales for 2024 (full year). Revenue for the year was £1.8 million in 2022 (2021: £1.2 million), so we are already looking at triple digit product sales growth of approx. 150% as compared to FY2022. Will the market take notice and put value on that growth continuing…? I think so, but I would like to hear contrary views.
Could we also see those revenue forecasts beaten for this year if the "just under" US$ 3m sales figure for just the Mevalone product alone is correct….? ‘Emergency’ Ecovelex sales in Italy will only be small for 2023 but that revenue was not previously expected (though it is perhaps now accounted for in the Cavendish note.)
Addressable markets - what is this? Is it the total value of pesticide market (all chemicals including biopesticides) or just the current market for biopesticides?
Thanks

[investingisatrickygame] 09/1/2024 21:50

IF Eden were making £50 million on £100 million turnover, on a P/E of 20, that would price the shares at £1.87, 30* is £2.81

This is what investors need to look towards.

3 products on sale now and a fourth and bigger one, not too far away. The previous post made NO allowance for Mevalone and Cedroz sales anywhere else around the world and no allowance for maybe 10* increase in France for P and D mildew, let alone other countries that may also get that label extension and opportunity.

[investingisatrickygame] 09/1/2024 21:46

It is worth adding to AttyG's various posts to value, especially where the commentary & opinion goes beyond the numbers from Cavendish.

From the latest RNS of today, it states "presenting significant revenue opportunities for the company with an addressable market in the US of approximately €94 million for Mevalone and €189 million for Cedroz™" so €283 million addressable in total.

Link:

From the 2020 AGM Q and A Eden states "It is generally accepted that a market penetration of between 5 and 10 percent of the total addressable market is achievable with products that fully address the needs of growers"

Link:

So according to Eden, they would hope and perhaps anticipate achieving between €14-€28 million per annum from the US alone for Mevalone and Cedroz, both of which are smaller opportunities than Ecovelex or the insecticide. Eden quoted during the Online Investor conference an €80 million pa opportunity for these two.

Link:

As such, it is easy to see how AttyG's comments about getting to €100 million pa can be achieved in the eyes of Eden, EVEN IF the Cavendish notes are uber cautious based on whatever criteria or rules dictate that they be so.