Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[jeanesy] 10/1/2024 08:41

we need the company to spell out what it expects in sales . News due soon ?

[alchemy] 10/1/2024 08:41

Resistance at 6.25 . So will the January update take that out? Going back to P/Es there are two sorts thereof are there not. Historic and perspective .If we are always worth 30 historic then as we lead up to results each time we may be "worth" 40 or more for spells of time?

[alchemy] 10/1/2024 08:30

Now that's what bulletin boards and collegial debate is about !

[money never sleeps] 10/1/2024 08:22

AttyG or anyone who can please help me with this.... . Maybe it is just me being simple, but I find the slides a tad confusing to read. How should one interpret this?
AA refers (@14:28) of the video presentation (Nov 2023) to a 'peak' market (i.e all geographies /crop labels / addressable diseases) of 15m Euros (US$ 17-18m). The slide quotes current "potential" Southern EU sales market at 3m Euros, but AA then later mentions that Mevalone sales for FY ending 2023 are already running at just under US$3m (global, presumably) – but only c.20% of their expected achievable revenue from this product.
The target figures for US market quoted by SS are 9m euros combined for Mevalone (6m euros) and Cedroz (3m euros), but of course we don't yet have authorisation for powdery mildew included, so I imagine we can only expect to garner a small fraction of that market right now.
For Cedroz though, AA talks about "... strong sales growth this year". The 2022 presentation barely mentions Cedroz from what I can see.
Cavendish are saying £4.9m in product sales for 2024 (full year). Revenue for the year was £1.8 million in 2022 (2021: £1.2 million), so we are already looking at triple digit product sales growth of approx. 150% as compared to FY2022. Will the market take notice and put value on that growth continuing…? I think so, but I would like to hear contrary views.
Could we also see those revenue forecasts beaten for this year if the "just under" US$ 3m sales figure for just the Mevalone product alone is correct….? ‘Emergency’ Ecovelex sales in Italy will only be small for 2023 but that revenue was not previously expected (though it is perhaps now accounted for in the Cavendish note.)
Addressable markets - what is this? Is it the total value of pesticide market (all chemicals including biopesticides) or just the current market for biopesticides?
Thanks

[investingisatrickygame] 09/1/2024 21:50

IF Eden were making £50 million on £100 million turnover, on a P/E of 20, that would price the shares at £1.87, 30* is £2.81

This is what investors need to look towards.

3 products on sale now and a fourth and bigger one, not too far away. The previous post made NO allowance for Mevalone and Cedroz sales anywhere else around the world and no allowance for maybe 10* increase in France for P and D mildew, let alone other countries that may also get that label extension and opportunity.

[investingisatrickygame] 09/1/2024 21:46

It is worth adding to AttyG's various posts to value, especially where the commentary & opinion goes beyond the numbers from Cavendish.

From the latest RNS of today, it states "presenting significant revenue opportunities for the company with an addressable market in the US of approximately €94 million for Mevalone and €189 million for Cedroz™" so €283 million addressable in total.

Link:

From the 2020 AGM Q and A Eden states "It is generally accepted that a market penetration of between 5 and 10 percent of the total addressable market is achievable with products that fully address the needs of growers"

Link:

So according to Eden, they would hope and perhaps anticipate achieving between €14-€28 million per annum from the US alone for Mevalone and Cedroz, both of which are smaller opportunities than Ecovelex or the insecticide. Eden quoted during the Online Investor conference an €80 million pa opportunity for these two.

Link:

As such, it is easy to see how AttyG's comments about getting to €100 million pa can be achieved in the eyes of Eden, EVEN IF the Cavendish notes are uber cautious based on whatever criteria or rules dictate that they be so.

[alchemy] 09/1/2024 17:29

Thank you Atty

[money never sleeps] 09/1/2024 17:24

Solitary confinement is nothing to boast about....

[attyg] 09/1/2024 17:24

The price action is far from unpredictable (i.e. predictable).

The RNS is dry and provides no indication of the real opportunity.

The RNS and the Cavendish note refers to the usual addressable market of $94m while the Cavendish note refers to an Eden opportunity of $2.8m and that is -
" Based on peak sales and a full label of all key target."
(The English is not mine.)

Hardly worth bothering to get out of bed for that.

As I have written previously; Eden's aspirations (well mine anyhow!) go beyond what is quoted as the "Eden opportunity".

What we all want is actual sales.
Then investors, and perhaps Cavendish, can make some sort of stab at likely sales revenues and profits in the years ahead.

I have posted my expectations.

I hope the Company releases as full a Trading Statement containing an exciting Outlook and from that, maybe we will be able to read an updated Cavendish note in which Eden is shown as generating worthwhile profits.
Such a note would be the catalyst to moving out of single digits and travelling beyond the teens.

Cenkos never noted a price target in their notes, however, some people have drawn my attention to the fact that Cavendish have stated a price target of 20p - that would get Eden up to a £100m market cap company and out of the small or rather, micro cap that it is presently.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow and onwards.

[timbo_slice] 09/1/2024 17:04

Idiot?! I think she's a moron. Comments like "I'm an 80s gal. Friendship to me means that for 2 bucks I'd beat you with a pool cue until you got detached retinas" I almost spilt my Pina Colada. She is funny though.

[mariopeter] 09/1/2024 16:46

I note the US agent has a website up and running. Anyone know how the price compares to traditional anti-fungal methods?

[alchemy] 09/1/2024 16:40

I am surprised at today's price action and open to any plausible explanation . Perhaps those through money was raised have targets ?Perhaps the old adage volume before price is corrrect? Though that begs the question why in this case Perhaps there is something the long termed see that I don't?

[kittybiscuits] 09/1/2024 16:30

Boring?! I think he is hilarious. Comments like, ‘I have always been the smartest in every room’ almost made me spill my coffee. He is an idiot though!

[timbo_slice] 09/1/2024 15:56

I'm not Kitty .... You are boring.

[supersonico] 09/1/2024 13:51

So now we just need the related 10x US Corteva multiplier Downy / powdery Mildew RNS

[alchemy] 09/1/2024 13:21

No disappointments the bulletin board is about debate . I disagree that's how it should be.

[investingisatrickygame] 09/1/2024 13:03

There is sales.

I imagine they generated an order today with Sipcam California based on the approval.

From California to New Zealand seasons will occur at different times and so sales of Mevalone specifically will be come more constant.

Last year we had a Trading Update on the 10th January, so hopefully we will have a 2023 Trading Update soon.

They generated an Ecovelex order on the back of the Emergency approval and announced the same on twitter (X).

Eden is definitely going in the right direction.

[timbo_slice] 09/1/2024 11:51

Completely correct. Maybe one day there will be sales......I live in hope.

[ravenna23] 09/1/2024 11:34

Sorry to disappoint but how many times has Eden obtained regulatory approval only to completely fail at converting this into sales. Long term holders should know this pattern by now and take the opportunity to exit. However are either too daft or badly advised. Eden is a cash graveyard. Move your money into something that will grow. The only ones gaining from this are the market makers who shoot up the price and then short it again. When will you learn.

[alchemy] 09/1/2024 11:15

The increase in Marcap of this news should be worth more than circa 3 mill surely?

[quazie12] 09/1/2024 10:48

Annualised sales of around 2m pa. Hugely loss making. Been at it trying to take Mevalone and Cedroz forward for decades with such impressive partners yet still didly squat to show for it. Strange.

[quazie12] 09/1/2024 10:39

Ah yes the Panama pump and dump escapade. A shocker all round