Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[sandcrab2] 22/1/2018 17:04

Because until there is DEMONSTRABLE REVENUE it is all just talk

And people have listened to enough talk

[investingisatrickygame] 22/1/2018 11:44

I think you should all take a look at this



Then if you do not know about Proactive, read this

(Very strange, each time I put in their web address and 'about us' it gets deleted).

Michael Walters, Eden's 'friend' has not the subscribers, the reach or the tools of today to elevate Eden's share price. Proactive are the dominant force in this space and have been for some while. A J Bell Media would be a recognised competitor.

Eden chooses not to be expansive with its story and has cited that its partner relationships sometimes prohibit them. Eden has presented to Institutions and also had Analysts meetings, so it clearly seeks to

A) Widen and share its story
B) Attract inward investment, albeit in the open market
C) Have institutions on the Company's Share Register


From this we can deduce that there is NO REASON not to share the story with individual and private investors, that inward investment in the open market would be welcome and that an upwardly mobile share price would help facilitate C) above. In sharing it with PI's you also get to share it, efficiently, with everyone else (all shareholders and potential shareholders)

I know a bit about Proactive and have delivered very successful independent communications via film using them as my distributor.

Can anyone believe that Eden really doesn't want their share price to increase and to have the benefit of a distributor such as Proactive whose audience reach goes as far as Sydney, Frankfurt, Toronto and New York and this is before film watchers refer it to a friend.

An interesting fact is that 68% of those that watch a video, refer it to a friend.

An interesting alignment is that PI's always refer a stock to a friend when they are hopeful or excited about a stock or are already making money in it. The story becomes self perpetuating.

The two are interlinked, yet Eden is disconnected by virtue of not engaging in this very valuable route to a shareholder audience and an increasing share price which ultimately gets them to their end game. A city based Share Register that likely requires minimal engagement with PI's

Why?

[supersonico] 20/1/2018 06:31

Note to self

There is no substitute for doing your own research. Use the research of others to guide you, but critically analyse everything you read. Avoid confirmation bias by paying particular attention to anything that is contrary to your view point. Think about who has written it and why.

The track record of management and supporters is the most important factor, use all sources, especially CH beta service to really look into it thoroughly. Google is a great research tool, if used properly.

Do you understand how the business is going to make money. Yes there are a lot of things that make money, but you just do not understand the business, leave them for those who understand.

Does the business model make sense. Ie will it generate real cash or will it always just be capitalising costs.

Look at past results. Do not trust anything that has not been audited. Do not assume because something has been audited you can trust it.

Look hard at the P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. If cash generation and profit are not reasonably well aligned, then really understand why.

Read all the notes to accounts. Generally it is the last or penultimate note that tells you what the related party transactions were - pay particular attention to these.

Paid for PR articles are worthless and should be completely ignored.

It is rare for RNSs to contain outright lies. If you find any just stop researching and avoid. More often the statements in RNSs are misleading. Directors are always confident. Look back to see if their past confidence in things happening has been proven to be justified. Do they over promise and under deliver or is it the other way round.

Consider the macro head winds (or tail winds - it really is a very ill wind that blows nobody any good). How have these changed since last results and how are they likely to change in the near future.

If there is a BB that is not just full of pointless ramping, then discuss your research openly providing links. Take note of any well expressed contrary views. Ask for justification of those views and follow up on what is provided.

Constantly review your research as things change. You will always be taking a risk as it is impossible to eliminate all risk when investing in shares. Understand the risks you are taking and the genuine potential rewards. If the risk reward balance changes, or your view of it changes because you now have more information, then be prepared to cut your losses early. Do not hold and hope, there are other opportunities out there. You do not need to back every opportunity.

Never put in more than you can afford to lose. Spread risk over a number of shares in different sectors and with different risk reward balances. But do not have so many positions in higher risk stocks that you cannot monitor and reassess them regularly enough.

It is always informative to look at who the shareholders are.

Very few proper IIs, and by proper IIs I mean funds that are long term holders not bucketshops or death spiral provider, invest at the bottom end of the market so the absence of IIs is not in itself a red flag, but does mean when a company needs more funding they do not have cornerstone investors to go to and are reliant on bucketshops.

Management will often have significant holdings, but you need to look at how they have got them, ie have they really put their own hand in their own pocket and at what price. Even then management can be the most deluded about a company's real prospects.

The promoters and associates are worth looking at. Again what price have they really paid and what sort of reputation do they have.

[supersonico] 19/1/2018 22:47

Cash is King.. well said Fraudy boy.

Cash at bank at 31 December 2017 was c. £3.7m (2016: £1.5m)

Multiple commercial agreements were signed with Sipcam SpA ("Sipcam") during the year, including an Evaluation and Option Agreement, for which a fee of €0.6m (£0.5m) was paid to Eden, and a Collaboration Agreement establishing a long-term collaborative partnership.

Long term collaborative partnership. ..Multiple commercial agreements + €0.6m = a real kick in the teeth for Eden LOL

'remarkable prescience' LOL Prophecy LOL

FraudyBoy the Comical Oracle LOL

Any updates on your SEE Prophecy.. oh dear best keep quiet on that one CO.

[supersonico] 19/1/2018 17:46

Interesting Watch... INVESTING..and good summary of Eden current position imo.

[investingisatrickygame] 19/1/2018 16:52

JakNife,

If you have the time and the inclination, you may wish to listen to the following:-


It may be educational in terms of profits and losses and the business model of tech companies these days, especially the successful ones. I encourage you to do so.

Whilst comparisons due to changes will be difficult on a like for like basis, Eden appears to have ample cash, ample support from their strategic partner, Sipcam and a new Chairman with a track record that speaks for itself. Assuming the Bayer deal finally comes in in the next few months and the Chairman can have Eden speaking for themselves, we might finally be on to a winner, as measured by the future share price. We might then also see Sipcam appoint someone to the board to further strengthen both the visibility of Eden and the recognition of Eden.

[supersonico] 19/1/2018 16:48

JakNife - 25 May 2017 - 06:41:05 - 2349 of 3191
Eden Research - EDEN
Sales are vanity, profit is sanity but CASH is king.

They've fudged their business model so that they can record higher sales. But profits will be unchanged and ditto cash and hence they will need to raise cash again this time next year at the latest.

Come and poke me this time next year to remind me of my remarkable prescience!

JakNife

[supersonico] 19/1/2018 13:37

Q12,
I appreciate you feel angered by the TT deal, MW and the drip drip narrative from the Farmgate Telegraph.

Putting that aside and looking at it afresh how do you view the growing income, Sipcam Partnership and investment and the New Chairman appointment?

[quazie12] 19/1/2018 13:15

No Sir SmugnessI bought in years ago 2005-2007. I'm no expert but I doubt you were in for much cheaper yourself, unless of course you have been averaging down ?

[weyweyumfozo] 19/1/2018 08:43

A hefty loss 14p! - you must have been buying at the highs instead of the dips.

[supersonico] 18/1/2018 17:19

Investing,

We'll have to agree to disagree.

I'm Confident and I see these periods as opportunities.
The companies potential does not change just because a bunch of Institutions suddenly wake up to an opportunity.

All that changes is the share price

IMO in time the noisy herd will arrive and spoil the peace but in the mean time I will graze on the tranquil speculative meadow grass.

[investingisatrickygame] 18/1/2018 16:28

supersonico,

I greatly appreciate your knowledge and information you post here, it is extremely useful and welcome. However, I have to disagree about the level of confidence in Eden. There is very little and that is why the share is so static, yet also in decline this last two years. Indeed weakness in the share price is the very thing that has allowed you to buy on the dips and 'top up' as you explained in an earlier post.

There is no great burst of enthusiasm to buy the stock and the reason is the investment community has not been given the tools of information that it requires to make those investments. There may be a few accumulating that are enthused or more, but there is a severe lack of buying pressure. When Eden starts trading say 5-10% of its issued share capital, then maybe we will see some upward momentum.

I believe and I do have related experience in this area, that the information deliverable to the institutions and timing of the same is materially different from the private investor, not least because of the emotional drivers of PI's, their understanding, the way they disseminate information to others, their use of social media and blogs to share information, corporate access to the Company, the barriers to entry for institutions, the role of advisers (often passive and works like a club), BoD's often lack of appreciation of the professional careers, experiences and abilities of private investors, BoD's fear of social media combined with their advisers advising them to keep it in the traditional avenues and lines of communication.

The problem with the above is that you have to separate the two target markets and understand where you are as a company in the communication journey. Eden is still at the outset. When it has travelled a path and established a firm story that is broadly understood by PI's, you then have the ability and market cap to progress your story to the 'professionals'. They are then able to become more receptive, more responsive and have a better ability to buy. The press is then interested in PR from Powerscourt as the story has more credibility and is more worthwhile. Naturally the upward journey of the share price means the journalist has a story to tell their too. They do not want to allocate space to a dead or static investment. Why would they share that with their readers?

I don't know what you do supersonico and I am not asking, but for sure, there are many PI's making their own investment decisions outside of a Private Wealth Management company such as JM Finn, Smith and Williamson and more who have successful careers as Lawyers, Accountants, MD's CEO's, Directors, Venture Capitalists, Stockbrokers, Business Owners and a whole lot more. There is an awful lot of knowledge there to be tapped into and listened to if nothing else. Where does it say on the tin that board level appointee's of listed companies have all the required skills and need no help, assistance or shared knowledge at all.

We'll see how Eden plays out, but at the moment it is not covering itself in glory.

[supersonico] 18/1/2018 16:05

Good to see the shares being bought in big chunks..shows confidence imo

[weyweyumfozo] 18/1/2018 16:03

super,

Is greater than 3% the figure for notification?

3% of 207,060,000 = 6,211,800, so I wouldn't expect a holdings RNS just yet.

I don't know how the percentages worked out in November 2014, when there were fewer shares in issue, but I don't recall a holdings RNS at the time, so it may be possible to work out whether the placing went to more than one buyer.

[investingisatrickygame] 18/1/2018 15:54

Eden has been trading in the 8-10p range for some while now.

I don't think that can be satisfactory or acceptable for the management of Eden. I don't think that will inspire Powerscourt to put in a big effort utilising their time and resources. I don't think that will help Powerscourt get any traction with PR'ing Eden to the press, as combined with the share price it is not a great read, is it. I also don't think it will create any divine inspiration with Shore Capital and selling Eden just got a lot harder for them. No one at the end of their phones will be listening. Come to that, Shore Capital won't even be making the phone calls.

Is everyone waiting for one mighty RNS thinking that will dramatically change the fortunes of Eden in isolation. If so, I think they will be disappointed when that comes along as the incessant selling on the rise will inevitably happen.

[supersonico] 18/1/2018 15:52

weyweyumfozo

Am I right in thinking Eden would have sold 10m shares including 333333 going to Eden
people Tom Lupton, Chairman and Ken Brooks, deputy Chairman.
Leaving 9666667 shares.

It's hard to be sure but this seems to be one seller ..should we expect a Holdings RNS any time soon?

[weyweyumfozo] 18/1/2018 15:42

super,

If the seller bought at 7.5p and his average selling price over the last two months is, say, 8.5p, some are happy with that as a booked profit. He might need the cash for something like paying wages or rent, or have a better short term bet, which wouldn't be to difficult to find. He might even want to buy Bitcoin!.

[investingisatrickygame] 18/1/2018 15:35

Yes and it is very frustrating. Why doesn't the Company react? How are they an attractive and accessible investment to institutions at this price.

A falling share price asks questions. Someone(s) clearly needs answers. No answers often results in selling. How many others might follow?

You would have thought that we would have heard from the new Chairman now that he is in situ. Nothing....why?

[weyweyumfozo] 18/1/2018 15:33

Not necessarily - I've said before that the seller has yet to accept less than 8p for his shares. He appears to wait until there have been enough buys to be able to do this IMO.

[supersonico] 18/1/2018 15:28

weyweyumfozo

We could see this 'dip' dip further then?
8.223p to buy today..lowest it's been for a while.

[weyweyumfozo] 18/1/2018 15:28

You've been asking us the same thing for weeks, and we still don't know.