Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[attyg] 02/5/2020 10:53

Totally agree super.

[supersonico] 02/5/2020 10:29

AttyG,
My expectation from what I read is Corteva are the tip of the iceberg as I noted in post 7606.

'Andre Negreriros @ Corteva tells us

"But (we are) also developing expertise and services for our business partners ..the seed companies in general"'



Seed Companies in general;

[attyg] 02/5/2020 09:38

Many of us are looking to significant sales growth as a precursor to a significant increase in the share price.
One area where we might look to significant sales growth is Corteva.
More info regarding the potential of the Corteva agreement appeared in the Open Offer document, namely, the Directors estimate revenue from Corteva could be “…c €40m from the European geographies alone (current market) from this product.”
Existing geographies are “…the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey…”
Looking at Corteva we can see they have total sales of $13.8b in the year to Dec 2019. This is broken into two categories Crop Protection $6.2b and Seed $7.6b.
Seeds in Europe, Middle East and Africa account for only $1.4b of the $7.6b total
Interestingly EBITDA for Crop Protection was 15.9% in 2019 a jump from 10% in 2018.
Whereas Seeds generated negative EBITDA of 2.1%; an improvement from negative 7.7% in 2018.
Looks to me like Corteva need to do something to improve their Seed business!
While Eden has not told us which seeds are being trialled by Corteva, the holy grail has to be corn seed which generated sales of $5.1b world wide for Corteva.
I particularly liked this comment contained in the Open Offer doc “Significantly for Eden, regulatory change led to the withdrawal of one of Corteva Agriscience’s key seed treatment product lines in the EU.”
I have been proven to be deluded many time before and in all likelihood am deluded in writing that I have expectations that we can look forward to seed sales to Corteva next year. I am not expecting €40m in 2021, but we might reasonably expect a decent chunk in 2021 and increasing quickly in 2022 and onwards. I continue in my deluded state in anticipating a GP c 40%. Of course there are a few hurdles before we see definite sales – but looks very promising to me. Sustaine has organic status, has no microplastics has positive benefits of tackling pests and fungus. What’s not to like?
It is worth noting that Eden/Corteva are only trialling on, say, $100m sales for Corteva. That is only 1.3% of Corteva’s Seed sales. Plenty scope for Eden to grow the business!

[supersonico] 01/5/2020 16:44

Investing,
I'm in agreement with you that the announced deals look full of potential to those who keep a close eye and even better for those like myself who dig around and make wild assumptions.

However like Chrischas keeps reminding us, rightly so imo, this is not adding to the in the coming months revenue picture which amplifies the CAP/TT/ Molluscicide habitual habitual consistent inconsistency habitual habitual consistent inconsistency habitual habitual consistent inconsistency habitual habitual consistent inconsistency reputation which means folks with less conviction and back ground research than you and I will keep their powder dry just like Kenmitch.

[supersonico] 30/4/2020 08:22

Investing,
Derogations requests are growing rapidly year on year which shows the pressure the pesticide industry is under with restrictions around active ingredients. This along with increase in resistance and regulatory action on Microplastic plus Consumer awareness make Eden's offering the light at the end of the tunnel for many established players and is what is making Eden as Sean says echoing Lykele a 'considerable player' in that industry.

[investingisatrickygame] 29/4/2020 22:48

Super said

"Glyphoste phase out related news"


If that were to happen that would be incredible

[supersonico] 29/4/2020 12:53

Expectation update

Great Cedroz promo and rapid approval progress.
The other regions announced in the Corteva/Sumitomo Seed Treatment licencing process.
TT could announce who their partnered with likely a global player and how the other TT/Eden partnership products will benefit from deals.
CAP and TT formulation outcome tweak could open doors that up until now were pipeline blockages. Or we may see new CAP details..
We may see Mars or SC Johnson announcement or the like come in from left field.
Global Insecticide announcement.
Glyphoste phase out related news
We may even find the Molluscicide anything's possible. (Found)

Additions.
Bayer Crop science related announcement .
Eastman/ Eden further announcement not Cedroz related.

[investingisatrickygame] 29/4/2020 11:43

Super said

"It will be interesting to see how the 'underlying health conditions' conversation plays out in the drive towards healthier foods now that CV is part of the recurring narrative."

I totally agree with that and I think Eden could do worse than illustrate how important their work is in transforming food for consumers. Indeed, Sean constantly referenced consumers in a good way in his interview with biomarketinsights.

People need to be protected from viruses.
It is not unreasonable to show consumers how they can encourage themselves to be more discerning about how the food they eat is protected before it is delivered to their plates.

This in turn, as Sean said, helps the movement for farmers to change habits, driven by consumers.

I posted a few weeks ago that unpalatable though it may be, the Coronvirus has thrown up an opportunity for Eden that they could embrace. I think the mainstream press might embrace Eden now to illustrate the same.

[supersonico] 29/4/2020 10:01

Good morning AttyG,

It will be interesting to see how the 'underlying health conditions' conversation plays out in the drive towards healthier foods now that CV is part of the recurring narrative.

It's evident by the number China's registration of Bio pesticide substances including
Carvacrol / Eugenol / Pyrethrin / D-limonene that the direction of travel is baked in which is particularly important and relevant to Eden IP evolution.

[attyg] 29/4/2020 09:41

erinvale,

I think most agree with you when you write that sales is the driver to share price growth.

Yes, Eden are struggling to get mevalone sales to where I thought they might be.
However, both Mevalone and Cedroz sales appear to be hindered by the regulators.

I certainly look forward to Corteva concluding an agreement on seed treatment and as was written in the Open Offer document "Significantly for Eden, regulatory change led to the withdrawal of one of Corteva Agriscience's key seed treatment product lines in the EU." I am hoping for speed in concluding negotiations and influence brought to bear on achieving regulatory approval.

I have been in for more than ten years, another two will deliver a marked increase in value of my investment. The company is well and truly on the right path and is properly funded to deliver on its potential.

[erinvale] 29/4/2020 09:08

AttyG - there a fine wines aplenty backed by an internationally strong market. The need to avoid destruction of fruit quality and yield by pest and fungus is ever present. Eden has the stuff to combat many annual threats, but whether it can achieve credible sales remains in doubt. In the markets I know well in Europe and elsewhere, the top players have not heard of Eden’s products. Until this changes, sales will not accelerate. This is the sole driver of Eden’s share price

[attyg] 29/4/2020 08:57

Good morning super,

I posted on t'other thread an observation on Sean's statement:

"If we continue doing what we are doing we are going to be a considerable player in the biopesticide space."

Regarding the article of wine (and bear in the UK) being poured away - at this time I do not think Sipcam and Sumi Agro France are targeting the cheap wine market. Quality wins will still be harvested and cellared - there will be plenty buyers for quality wines.

[supersonico] 29/4/2020 07:49

Sean,
Rather than or in tandem with waste of money PR articles that tell us absolutely nothing new and have Zero effect on share price why not give those of us who actually are invested here and who pay attention some indication of..

Why the Eden Molluscicide product has returned.. ??and

Considering the industry believes 'alternatives (to conventional Molluscicides) as either ineffective or uneconomical' how Eden who often focus on 'high value crops' plans to reconcile that economic conundrum.??

At the moment the Eden Molluscicide status looks to me like a neglected Neon Carpark sign on a wet January afternoon in Woking.

It needs attention if only to avoid being described in a parallel universe by Donald Rumsfeld as being Consistently..Inconsistent .

[supersonico] 29/4/2020 07:00

Autonomous slug control using bio-molluscicides could be on the horizon
News
27 Apr 2020
Ewan Pate
A major new project aimed at using robotics to control slugs on a field scale has been launched today (April 27).

If trials are successful a new mechanised control method could avoid over-reliance on molluscicide pellets and replace haphazard slug monitoring techniques.

The new SlugBot project will use innovative technology for autonomous slug monitoring and then precision treat using environmentally friendly bio-molluscicides.

The project is to be led by Dr Jenna Ross from UK Agri-Tech Innovation Centre Crop Health and Protection (CHAP).

Dr Ross said: “I travelled the world in 2018 as a Nuffield Farming scholar and noticed a gap in the market for autonomous slug monitoring. In addition, bio-molluscicides are currently too expensive for use in arable crops.

"The project bring together expertise from our CHAP network of partners, along with input from Small Robot Company, who will deliver expertise in robotics, mechanical and electrical engineering, COSMONiO, who will assist with artificial intelligence through their NOUS AI platform, and AV and N Lee, who will provide the land for field trials and input from the farming community”.


Phase one of the project will focus on developing artificial intelligence slug detection capability, including with multispectral imagery.

Phase two will then look to deliver slug detection using Small Robot Company’s ‘Tom’ robot, with mobile imaging of slugs and field-surface materials in glasshouse conditions anticipated by early 2021.

The detection and mapping of slug infestations is anticipated to be delivered in field in spring 2021.

Phase three will then focus on development of precision spraying, delivering an in-field slug treatment solution for autumn 2021.
Robotic

Ben Scott-Robinson of Small Robot Company said: “Robotic slug control is a natural next step for us. Slugs are a terrible bane for farmers. They can decimate emerging crops and have a significant impact on yield. But treatment is problematic. Both water and wildlife have been impacted by chemical methods. Legislation is looming so farmers need an affordable alternative.”

James Lee, farmer and partner of AV and N Lee said: “It is brilliant to be involved with a project that has farmers involved from the get-go.”

The project is funded by Innovate UK SMART call and will run for 18 months.


……………….

Arise, robotic slug slayers?

Regulators here in the UK, for instance, have been attempting to crackdown on metaldehyde, hoping to phase it out by the end of 2021. Other countries are mulling similar restrictions. That said, activists at the Metaldehyde Stewardship Group reckon the answer lies in more judicious use and forensic slug monitoring rather than outright bans, as they see alternatives as either ineffective or uneconomical. A popular alternative for higher-value crops like apples are bio-molluscicides, which are available in the form of nematode products. But nematodes, which can be deployed like an army of tiny killer worms, are still too pricey for use in arable crops where they’d need to be blanketed over entire fields repeatedly throughout the season.

[supersonico] 29/4/2020 06:45

5 Minutes With…Sean Smith from Eden Research

LG: Where do you see Eden Research in the coming five years’ time?

SS: The short order objective right now is to build our capabilities and grow our market. I see us with a broader portfolio of products and being a consolidator in the industry.

We want to be the partner of choice for our existing and potential partners. Somebody who can reliably develop, produce and market sustainable products for crop protection. We have some outstanding commercial partners and that group of commercial partners is growing all the time. If we continue doing what we are doing we are going to be a considerable player in the biopesticide space.


…………………….

(Please Refer to 'supersonico - 19 Apr 2020 - 11:12:48 - 7606 of 7629' for an interpretation of 'consolidator' and 'Considerable player' terms.

AWGATWT.

[supersonico] 28/4/2020 21:11

Investing,
I agree, when the detail is put on the Corteva Bones I too expect a substantial rerating along the lines you project especially as the numbers and the partners involved along side Corteva will reflect the fact that seed treatment and protection of seed production crops are decreasing and effective control of several pests (including pathogens) are at stake and importantly..Eden has a major part to play in that market.

[supersonico] 28/4/2020 17:15

Monet.

Gosh what a surprise.

[investingisatrickygame] 28/4/2020 13:20

A friend has pointed out Genedrive to me. I know nothing about them apart from a quick read identifying that they will roll out Covid-19 tests globally and en masse.

Their share price has gone from 9pence on the 24th March to circa 114pence today, a rise of 1,266% in just over a month.



So they are looking to part solve a global problem and address it in quite a big way.

It just shows how a share price can transform. Eden too is looking to solve some global issues around crop protection and can also deliver quickly and in volume. Such a share price transformation might/could be seen in Eden too, later this year.

Without citing anything else, if we just look at the Corteva deal and the values applied in the placing RNS, up to €40 million for one continent and three countries, we have £35 million/380 million shares delivers 9pence a share. A conservative multiple of 10 takes Eden to 90p or 13 times today's share price. That is very comparable with the above.

Personally, I see no reason why Eden too cannot transform this way and in a similar period. Covid-19 is a hot topic, people are totally aware of it, sensitive to it and in the investing world will (apparently) jump into a stock that looks like helping solve the problem.

If Eden is willing and able to find a way to deliver their message to get the investment community to understand the global issues they will solve on crop protection, allied to a signed Corteva deal, then this alone could take Eden skywards.

This in my opinion is not hype or living in cuckoo land, it is the realisation of what Eden can/will solve and the associated and published values that go with it.

[monet] 28/4/2020 12:23

Well worth a read if you haven't already.

[supersonico] 28/4/2020 07:06

China publishes "List of Biopesticide Active Ingredients in Registration", involving 101 active ingredients.

III. Botanical pesticide
Carvacrol / Eugenol / Pyrethrin / D-limonene

[chrischas] 25/4/2020 17:32

But what happens this year?
Is the Management playing a long game like the government and assuming there is a future? I think they are Beatles fans :let it be and the long and winding road.
Take the juicy salaries the rewards committee awarded us and we can keep going for 4 or 5 years come what may. We don't have to buy our own shares when our salaries are worth so much more .
Now if we are locked down as usual in our office no one can blame us if sales don't happen. So weve got our ready made excuse for 2years as to why yet again we are a small AIM company that goes nowhere.
Ps does anyone know any stories of our chemicals being taken up in any quantity right now.