Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 06/5/2019 14:58

Some talk of hope triumphing over experience. Which will be proved right in this case. ? Unfortunately, I'm here to tell you that servicing an eco critical industry is no guarantor or success, nor is having excellent technology. Michael Walters' site is full of such stories, most of which never saw the light. I am hopeful here, as my investment evidences: but also extremely wary. Lykele, for one, has yet to make his maiden investment. Secondly, the bod appear to own a lot less in paid up shares than any racing certainty would suggest they might. Thirdly, when a share is truly ready to restate, as jlp is currently doing, you see significant investors coming on board. Just sayin'.

Please explain relevance of scandi noir. Sometimes you are more recondite than a play by Samuel Beckett. And this feels a lot like waiting for Godot.

[supersonico] 06/5/2019 14:35

What imo the market is missing is the reason or context as to why Eden keeps not delivering with TT and Bayer etal and potential the crop protection vertical offers.

The market looks at the delays as failure to deliver despite the current climate and ecological emergency we now face. I look at these delays as the industry catching up with the potential Eden's Tech has in the stark reality of the death of Green revolution ecocidal Chemistry .

Once they became aligned the opportunities amplify, NDA'S restrict communication and the delays caused by bigger plans/strategies/alliances become wider, and more valuable but look to the market like non performance and a little incompetent to boot. But that's just the Noise above the transformational change the technology truly offers.

The Market has not got a clue and whilst it is myopic, Investors and Film buffs like us, early to the feast get a decent portion for our hard earned. Hopefully.

[brucie5] 06/5/2019 14:17

Atty, a while ago you said you had dreams of a share price in the several pounds. Do you still hold this, and if so, are you able to illustrate?

[investingisatrickygame] 06/5/2019 14:12

Super,

Quite right, we know, the market doesn't so very, very frustrating.

AttyG,

We have been under promising for several years now and as Super points out, the market just needs to catch up their understanding with the likes of us who are more fervent.

All I ask is that Eden conveys our understanding, their understanding, more thoroughly so value is understood, not misunderstood, not undervalued and equally not hyped. Just plain simple communications demonstrating true current value.

Some of us might argue that Shore Capital is misleading the market by downplaying or not understanding Eden and its value correctly. Eden could of course, correct that.

[chrischas] 06/5/2019 14:02

Well it’s going to be really interesting in late September/Oct if the hard working partners have had any meaningful sales figures.If they have it will be all down to the absolute change in the market that has occurred and is occurring.They certainly will have to do it by themselves.

[attyg] 06/5/2019 13:44

Agreed super.
My view (and possibly Sean's view too) is that, for various reasons, we did not deliver what was indicated to the market and consequently the market pays little heed to the words from Sean and Lykele. So, till,we post numbers that demonstrate the story is truly now becoming reality, the share price will not reflect the soon to be realised potential. Thus Sean downplays the story? Under promise over deliver?

[brucie5] 06/5/2019 13:35

UN report today on the environment makes sober reading. Difficult to feel any optimism at all. But we must persevere with solutions.

[supersonico] 06/5/2019 11:57

Brucie,

The market does not know things that we don't imo. We know things the market does not know as do the Scandi Noir film club . The 'Market' can't see the wood for the Trees and what's hidden in plain sight.

The Market will catch up with us once they can see the Ducks in a line as they noisily fly out of the woods.

[brucie5] 06/5/2019 11:26

Super, agreed, but: I think we have to credit the market for knowing things that we don't, as much as ignoring things that we consider significant. Otherwise fans of Eden who have long predicted multiples of current share price, would have been vindicated by now. So far, the doubters have proved right. Agreed?

[brucie5] 06/5/2019 11:23

Investing, 'you and I' will not be sufficient to move the market. Please be absolutely explicit on why you believe there is such strategic understatement. It is somewhat counterintuitive, though one can speculate.

[investingisatrickygame] 06/5/2019 11:09

Super,

Exactly, so if you and I know that, why can't Eden simply state the same!!!

[supersonico] 06/5/2019 10:48

I appreciate the cautious figures Brucie5 and the Methodology.

I'm persuaded that the figures will be on the higher side for the following reasons and indicators.

1)As post 6109 notes the Emergency derogation was announced 2 months after EU approval where as it took 4 time longer than for Mevalone.

2)The toxicity of conventional fumigants and the lack of suitable alternatives has been documented for a couple of decades. Cedroz is a revolutionary formulation as evidenced by Eastman's investment and Italian Emergency approval and the RNS comment

"emergency" authorisations are allowed by EU member states when local regulatory authorities judge that they are needed in the local market in order to meet the requirements of growers in the absence of suitable commercially-available alternatives"

3)This absence of 'suitable commercially available alternatives' is occurring at a time of amplified awareness of Pesticide toxicity and compounding growth in the Biopesticide market.

4) Eden understate everything so every figure in ShoreCap note is the absolute minimums imo and I expect this to be the only Emergency derogation.

[brucie5] 05/5/2019 17:43

Or for illustration of revenues:

$1.2bn current targeted market.

x .76 (convert to £s)= £912m

x . 25 for 25% margin to EDEN on sales ( conservative, but excludes costs ramp up)=£228m total

1% of which - £2.3m.

On this, name your market share. 5% = 11.5

Now grow the target number to the following:

2bn = £3.8m for 1 %; 19m for 5%
4b = £7.6m for 1%; £38m for 5%

All of course, excluding sustaine. Usually best to take the middle number, modelled on 2bn target market. That 5% may well be rather modest, given the early take up of Cedroz in Italy. 10% would be £38m rev. Number between 5% and 10%: call it £29m for approx. 7.5%. By 2022.

Call it 20m profits, with enlarged costs based on 9m. 20m on PE of 15 = £300m, or £1.50.

I keep on coming back to the same ball park. Maybe I'm wrong. So half it (75p) and half it again (37p); and again, just until we get that regulatory permission for the USA.

18.5. for now. Europe looks priced in.
37p for Cedroz in the US.

Nothing for TT and CAP. Let alone whatever it is we're expecting of Sustaine. Maybe be nothing. :(


Just for fun, and wdik!

[supersonico] 05/5/2019 17:40

An invoice of 950 million euros for grain farmers



Éric Thirouin, the president of the AGPB, the General Association of Wheat Producers, has asked the National Assembly for a "financial support" from the state to help grain farmers get out of glyphosate in the coming years, arguing that additional cost of this measure.

"All these evolutions, all these investments, all these potential reductions [in the use of phytosanitary products, Editor's note], have important consequences, since behind we have quantified, for our sector of field crops, a cost of 950 million euros. It's colossal, "said Eric Thirouin, before the parliamentary information mission on the release of glyphosate.

50 to 160 € / ha extra cost
Among the additional costs incurred, Éric Thirouin first mentioned the workforce: "It is estimated that 12.7 million extra hours per year will be spent on our crops. »Investments in equipment, substitute products: in all,« it can represent additional costs for farms ranging from 50 to 160 euros per hectare ».

Stressing the "economic situation of the sector of particular concern", given the difficult harvests experienced by France, against a backdrop of sometimes depressed world prices, he underlined the low incomes of the cereal farms during the last six years and the "distortion the cost of competition in world markets.

Support the necessary investments
"We want to move forward, but from the moment the economic constraints are compensated, said Éric Thirouin. We ask that there can be financial support for actions that are led by farmers, investment aid [for mechanical weeding], perhaps the tax credit. "

The AGPB president also underlined the negative impact that the exit of glyphosate would have on the carbon footprint of the farms, notably because of the energy consumption caused by the increase in plowing, estimated at "87 million additional liters of fuel per year.

He finally listed the technical impasses on no-till crops and "other impasses [...] on the particular perennials quackgrass, thistle, bindweed, and allergenic poisonous plants. There, the mechanical work, it's not enough, even it's worse, because we will cut rhizomes that will make more small. "

[investingisatrickygame] 05/5/2019 16:44

Well as someone said to me recently, given that Eden has two commercial products (bio's), and it is promoted that it costs £25-£30 million to produce a biopesticide, and we know both products work, then in simplistic terms, there is £50-£60 million of value there and Eden has a market cap of circa £22 million.

[supersonico] 05/5/2019 15:40

I don't see it as hiding value or disguising value because it's future value not current or announced and will only be seen as value once the ducks are in line. Just as opportunistic New York Pigeons love cherry trees and Goldfinches enjoy a Dandelion Feast .. it's NDA's all day until then.

All Guesses all the time..but not about the Birds.. I know about them;)

[investingisatrickygame] 05/5/2019 15:11

Well I would argue, that if you are right, you cannot keep hiding or disguising value.

So either you are wrong in which case, we are where we are, but value is not being demonstrated by the company OR Eden is deliberately hiding/not demonstrating true value and the latter would certainly be a concern for everyone.

Transparency and outing true value I'm sure are LSE expectations, if not more.

[supersonico] 05/5/2019 08:08

It's not about being fair it's all about lining up the ducks and Sca-nda Noir.

Hopefully shareholders will appreciate the film when it's finally screened about a tiny company who attracted the attention of the Agropharma Giants which demanded all the in the coming short orders they could muster as they sat at the Vanguard of momentous change in turbulent times.. Rotten Tomatoes said 'Watch as the drama unfolds as they stifle their exuberance and Share price until every Giant was satiated' .. .Lets hope all the hype is Warraanted..We shall see..

Watch out for star performances from Sumitomo, Bayer , AR and Xinova. Will Eastman play a bit part?
Watch to find out..Recommended

Film Week said . .'After watching this masterpeice of Sca nda Noir audiences may find themselves reaching for copies of "Come and See" by Elim Klimov (1985) for some light relief '

[investingisatrickygame] 04/5/2019 23:28

Sadly they are and it is a bad habit they need to get out of.

Their shareholders and their shareholders money deserves more and to be treated more fairly.

[supersonico] 04/5/2019 21:32

But they are not doing that..they are dampening expectations for 2019 at every opportunity.

[investingisatrickygame] 04/5/2019 19:00

And I agree. That is what I was getting at. According to the articles you posted and the recent emergency allowance, the market for Cedroz may be even bigger than you are now implying.

Eden should weave all of this into the story because this is what encourages investors to take a closer look.

[supersonico] 04/5/2019 17:47

Investing,

I'm not meaning to imply anything.. but.. if one looks at the issues.. many times repeated about Toxicity of conventional chemistry and regulatory pressure and resistance around Nematodes..I for one look at the Cedroz product and despite the rosy multiples Sean Smith puts on Cedroz over Mevalone…can't help but feel even that 1 Mev to 4 Ced ratio narrative is a characteristic underestimate. Eden appear to have a greater opportunity within the Nematicide market than Mevalone does within the Fungicide market...so Cedroz/nematicide market is say 4 times Mevalone/fungicide but that market opportunity is being amplified by the absence of effective alternatives and so maybe we can extrapolate that the ratio we should be considering is not 1 to 4 but more likely to be 1 Mevalone to +8 Cedroz.

Perhaps that's partly what they mean when they say $1.2bn today $4bn Tomorrow

Eden down play everything and the figures I don't believe include the Organic market which I assume we'll have access to once the EU EGTOP protocols gets ratified.

Any of that makes Sense Investing??

TBC

[supersonico] 04/5/2019 16:42

Investing..Which post?