Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[investingisatrickygame] 27/4/2019 22:13

I'm surprised that no one has commented on the following.

From the 2018 Annual Report

"The global biopesticides market is projected to be worth more than $8.8 billion by 2022"

"Eden's proven addressable market today is $1.2 billion"

"Tomorrow, Eden's addressable market grows to more than $4 billion, not including Sustaine-related opportunities"


On the basis that Eden produces/toll manufactures bioactive products and Eden is not in the animal health market yet

1) When is tomorrow as defined by Eden above?

2) Is Eden saying that tomorrow's market for them of $4 billion is directly correlated to the $8.8 billion, equal to 45% of the forecast biopesticide market in 2022?


If so, that is quite a statement and a massive jump from where we are now in a very short period of time. These statements are on pages 11 & 12 of the Annual Report if anyone can add some clarity or thought for me as I am unsure as to exactly what they are saying as quoted above.

[chrischas] 27/4/2019 18:40

Can we not get Sipcam to write on the Eden website the EXACT translation they have put up on their website.
It certainly merits applause on how to do things properly.
Makes the BOD look like amateurs.
Congratulations Sipcam.

[investingisatrickygame] 27/4/2019 17:20

As I understand it, there is no Go-E. So to me it would me an incorrect label on their website.

[supersonico] 27/4/2019 16:57

Yes we have discussed it.. I'm just surprised to see it still being used and wonder why.

Could it be to differentiate current GO-E Sipcam/Sumiagro/ Sumitomo products 3LOGY from future SustainE Sipcam plus Collaborator products?

[investingisatrickygame] 27/4/2019 16:29

Sustaine, is the new name for Go-E. This is something we have discussed before.

Super,

Haven't we established before from Sean Smith in print and on film that the original target numbers quoted for Cedroz in the original December 2016 RNS have risen to $1.2 billion. Therefore, I imagine there is overlap/new applications for Cedroz.

[supersonico] 27/4/2019 16:15

Brucie5,
I'm not sure because their are Nematicides used pre planting as a fumigant which I believe is/was due to be phased out but since Cedroz is a post planting application I'm unclear as to how much we can extrapolate without further details from Eden as to how the market over laps and whether Cedroz can replace Conventional treatments in all cases.

The Emergency approval suggests it might well overlap substantially.. As to how much is a good AGM question imo.

[supersonico] 27/4/2019 16:12

GO-E on our biggest share holders website. I thought that was old skool.

[brucie5] 27/4/2019 16:10

It has been said by someone somewhere, that Eastman was looking to replace its existing nematicide with Cedroz, and the former had 20% market share. Is this a myth, or can anyone confirm?

[investingisatrickygame] 27/4/2019 14:57

Cedroz should get if we understand this properly, a significant market share. Goodbye to shore caps 5%!

[supersonico] 27/4/2019 14:46

Again..looking at the sentence below, I'm trying to fathom what it says about the status of other comparable Nematicides in the EU. I assume all EU countries will have had previous access to Nematicides so does this statement acknowledge that all other similar application Nematicides are unsuitable?

If so surely all other countries will wish to enact 'emergency authorisations' in the absence of 'suitable commercially-available alternatives'.

This suggests to me Italy will not be alone and also means, does it not that Eden have this niche market all to themselves?

Italy grants "emergency use" Cedroz authorisation

Such "emergency" authorisations are allowed by EU member states when local regulatory authorities judge that they are needed in the local market in order to meet the requirements of growers in the absence of suitable commercially-available alternatives

[wilmer100] 27/4/2019 10:29

Hi AttyG,You could obviously tell I know little about how options work and I thank you for giving me this information.I too hope that they make many millions and that the company pays a healthy dividend.I'd like to see the share price into the pounds, but not just yet. They are cheap to buy just now and I'm still accumulating.

[supersonico] 27/4/2019 09:59

Could the other platform be related to the Anti-microbial component that Xinova refer to?

[attyg] 27/4/2019 09:46

Hi Wilmer,

They will be granted if share price conditions are met in Sept 2019 and 2020.
Sean and Alex have a period of time in which to excercise them - from my understanding, as soon as any awarded option is taken up a tax charge will be crystallised (benefit in kind). Such a tax charge may necessitate Sean and or Alex to then sell a quantity of the shares awarded to meet said tax bill. It therefore makes sense not to excercise the award till the last possible date or if they believe the share price has become too toppy and they want to cash in.

I am hoping they receive the awards and that they make several millions.

My understanding is the sustaine tech is developed by/from/in collaboration with the US uni.
Investing raises an intriguing point - if there is another platform to Eden's IP, then it would be good if this was made clear.

I am delighted with the granting of the emergency use of Cedroz in Italy.
Fingers crossed this means they will get on with providing full continuing use approval in short order.
Perhaps we may enjoy more such RNSs in the near future.
For me this is a fundamental change in the commercial outlook for Eden - for the better, in case someone doubts the view of a deluded bull!

[supersonico] 27/4/2019 09:37

Mevalone/ Cedroz Italy Approval time Comparison

Mevalone

EU Product Authorisation
26th May 2015

Approval of 3AEY in Italy
11th Feb 2016

Roughly +/- 9 months

Cedroz

EU Product Authorisation - Cedroz
20th Feb 2019

Italy grants "emergency use" Cedroz authorisation
26th Apr 2019

Roughly +/- 2 months

[wilmer100] 27/4/2019 09:03

OK. Thanks, as I said my knowledge is not perfect.2027 does seem a long time from now. I'm in this for the long term if possible and have a fantasy that the dividend could be greater than the present share price.Over 5 years invested in this company and still building my share holding.

[investingisatrickygame] 27/4/2019 08:38

WILMER100 said

"I thought 2 million of the options expired September 2019 and a further 2 million September 2020".

Those are separate options

[wilmer100] 27/4/2019 07:14

I thought 2 million of the options expired September 2019 and a further 2 million September 2020.Also I can't see it on their website but I do believe that the 2nd technology platform was obtained from the university of Massachusetts.I could be wrong, my knowledge is not perfect.

[investingisatrickygame] 27/4/2019 00:14

Printed copy of the 2018 Annual Report

I ordered and received a copy today. Firstly, for anyone that doesn't have a copy, I would recommend you get one. It is comprehensive and beautifully presented, in fact an excellent document in print to go to any potential investor and far more impactful than an online PDF version.

I have noticed a few interesting things though (not all new)


1) Eden seeks to be the leader in sustainable bioactive products enabled or enhanced by Sustaine. As another poster has mentioned, I would expect Sustaine to be of greater value than developing a long line of bioactive products, but clearly Eden is intent on building a strong product portfolio

2) Eden's proven addressable market is $1.2 billion today, tomorrow it grows to $4 billion not including Sustaine related products. $4 billion is $2 billion bigger than quoted at the Proactive presentation on the 12th February 2019. Slide 18 hxxp://www.edenresearch.com/~/media/Files/E/Eden-Research/documents/reports-and-presentation/eden-presentation-feb-19-proactive.pdf

3) Page 11 of the printed report "Eden is leveraging two technology platforms to provide sustainable solutions". What is the second technology platform as I only know of one.....Sustaine!

4) Sustaine is being tested by some of the major agchem companies. Would it be possible to know who they are as Sipcam is not one of them in my opinion. Bayer is likely one, who are the others?

5) Pages 14 & 15, shareholder engagement. Eden details an "Investor Relations Calendar (typical, rolling)". Aside of the AGM, it is heavily focused towards the City in my opinion. They do say the AGM's are generally well attended. I guess, to be fair, that is subjective, but I wouldn't agree with that given the size of the share register.

6) Sean and Alex between them have 4 million, nil value options expiring 2027, so time really is on their side!

7) For 'Super', page 29, the Bank of New York (nominees) holds 3.37% of the issued share capital

8) Page 3, "our Commercial Partners" continues to position Bayer first, even after many, many, years of delays. Relevant or not?


Accepting that it will cost a few quid in printing, it really is well presented and I would be handing it out to every potential interested party. It's a shame that it can't go to every one of our 2,000 registered shareholders as I think it would be reinvigorating for many.

[northwick] 26/4/2019 19:03

I was told this at 10.20am this morning that MM were bidding for 1m shares at 11p. That bid for there for only 15min. Not sure if the particular MM did manage to acquire the shares for his clients. very interesting development.

[supersonico] 26/4/2019 15:06

Brucie5.. Your not the only one.

Commiserations to those reading this BB who know this marks an end to their BS commentary. LOL
Their will be no Eulogy.

[weyweyumfozo] 26/4/2019 15:05

The Italian local regulatory authorities have judged that "emergency" authorisations are needed in the local market in order to meet the requirements of growers in the absence of suitable commercially-available alternatives.

The words "lack of suitable competition" and "open door" spring to mind for Cedroz take-up in Italy. The local regulatory authorities are obviously well informed regarding Cedroz.

[brucie5] 26/4/2019 14:51

Well, am I the only one to find today's RNS even vaguely exciting? Eastman is really working hard for us, it seems. They seem to have impressed the Italians, who have a huge agricultural sector; never mind the fact that Italy, as the world's largest wine producer is already using Mevalone via Sipcam.

[investingisatrickygame] 26/4/2019 14:43

Super,

Your post above is right in that the statement you re-quote should not be underestimated. It is quite a statement and Eden should look to capitalise on the same. However,...…


ipeesquint is right in my book about the jam tomorrow, inappropriate and disproportionate pay rises, bonuses and share options that have been awarded. This doesn't say 'we are in it together or our interests are aligned with yours' because they're simply not when the share price is 3 years static and illiquid.


That really is a statement suggesting Cedroz is about to grab immediate and significant market share straight out the gate in Italy.

Investors are right to be weary with Eden and they will look to exit as soon as. New investors are right to be wary of Eden until delivery changes.

I love the Eden story, but I too am getting tired of it. I would love it again though if Eden would drive their share price to many multiples of today's price, today and then we can start to look forward to the forward journey again.


The share price is the biggest elephant in the room.

So I am all for the pay rises, bonuses and share options, with the former two coming when Eden's share price is north of 30p and the latter exercisable when the shares are 40-50p

[supersonico] 26/4/2019 14:28

Ipeesquint,

The words of Zach Bush..Autism rates have doubled in the last 6 years to 1 in every 30 kids and by 2030/5 based on current projections 1 in 3 children will be diagnosed as being on the Autistic spectrum. 46% of children have a chronic Health issue. These are end of Empire numbers.

@13min



With these sorts of stats routinely thrown around and bio technology rapidly evolving I think were all frustrated. That may well be down to management but I lean more towards NDA's and evolving product development as a reason why were still waiting.

The statement we all read today, below, should not be underestimated imo as not only does it show a vacuum in the Green revolution technology, it marks a step change in the leverage our partners have and their confidence that the product performs better than conventional chemistry. It shows the confidence and trust regulators are gaining for Eden technology. It also marks the acceptance and maturity of Eden's tech reputation for Biopesticide products that was not their or was more cautious with Mevalone. As we have all grumbled about the slow progress of the share price the Times have changed before our eyes.

The tide is turning in Eden's favour, but not many realise it right now.. but they will.


'Such emergency authorisations are allowed by EU member states when local regulatory authorities judge that they are needed in the local market in order to meet the requirements of growers in the absence of suitable commercially-available alternatives'.

[ipeesquint] 26/4/2019 13:56

Investing all true what your saying. I don’t post often as I am a bit weary of Eden having owned quite a pile for so long.

I hope one day to get a bit of that future jam but suspect my kids are more likely to benefit when I am gone.

It is my worst ever investment and while I still have hope .....it diminishes every time Sean awards an inappropriate and disproportionate pay rise to him and Alex.

The AGM used to be an exciting time but of late I find myself bashing my teeth at what comes out of it. Groaning is also a firm favourite and a requirement for a long time holder of which there are surprisingly many.

I’m not sure what keeps us here anymore.

Good luck all.