Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 15/1/2019 10:47

redhill, I'm not sure that the bod have magical powers in respect of the share price, particularly since they have to 'get it up', not to put too fine a point on it, for a number of days. This is not ultimately in their hands.

(I better stop now..)

[redhill9] 15/1/2019 10:44

I'll stick with 27p though with less confidence now that level will be reached this year rather than 2020 (edit).

One point of perhaps (cynical) optimism - don't the execs have share options available this year that require the share price to be more than double the current price to have any value? That might motivate them to stimulate some progress although we have to ask why haven't they managed it already......

[brucie5] 15/1/2019 10:32

Chrischas
15 Jan '19 - 10:31 - 5512 of 5512
0 0 0
Sticking with 25p .
---------------------------------------
So why weren't you on my list?
I'll edit you now.

[chrischas] 15/1/2019 10:31

Sticking with 25p .
It will not move upward until the BOD want it to.

[brucie5] 15/1/2019 10:15

Not sure yet. I have a commitment that afternoon which may make it difficult, but need to check. You?

[investingisatrickygame] 15/1/2019 10:12

Brucie5,

Are you going to the Proactive Investors Presentation?

[brucie5] 15/1/2019 10:08

Anyone else wish to revise their eoy predictions?


Atty & Investing: 50p

JR: 36p

Brucie5: 35p

Redhill & Littlealbatross: 27p

Chrischas: 25p.

Northwick: 15p (revised from) 22p.

Jaknife: 2p.
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50p will take some doing.
Only a humdinger re. Sustaine would be capable to booting it up to my 35p. Not ruling it out, though.

That said, Jaknife looks well out of the money, though I look forward to hearing his update. ;)

[investingisatrickygame] 15/1/2019 09:47

Attyg,

With climate change and unknowns, Eden could, y-o-y, report dry seasons which affected weather affected sales of Mevalone. Although a general bull on Eden, to be fair, there is no certainty of sales of Mevalone for grapes. The weather will likely dictate, so outside of Eden's control!

It really is time Eden put a stake in the ground for investors. How many more reports each 6 months rolling out the same (effectively) news on TT and Bayer. Super is right, it's a never ending delay.

Personally, I don't think that story is sustainable!!!!!!!!

They best have something dynamic to say on the 7/2 presentation or else they'll just be embarrassing themselves among existing investors.

[bjlk] 15/1/2019 09:22

A good day to bury mediocre news???

[supersonico] 15/1/2019 09:21

This was also interesting since the interest from both Sipcam and Eastman is hot, one could imagine much going on in parallel to the registration period. We have also the 'other interested parties' narrative with Sustaine so the Crop protection Vertical looks to be progressing well with various known and Unknown players.

'Additional product commercialisation opportunities for new products are expected to be possible once approval of the three active ingredients is granted'.

[attyg] 15/1/2019 09:12

Well the Trading Update, in reality, contains no surprises - other than re-formulation work on one Bayer product.

The modest improvement in 3AEY sales was signalled at the Interims.
That this is indeed modest can be dedeuced by Sipcam paying the upfront €900k fee for the rights to distribute 3AEY in other territories - they clearly see the potential.

Had TT actually launched head lice etc, we would already know - so no surprise to read that TT continues to be "..working with its distribution partner to launch that product in the UK in 2019."
Can we believe TT will actually sell any head lice product in 2019?
For my part, yes we can. Regulatory approval has been obtained and results demonstrate it really works well - probably best for me not to write that it is the most effective treatment available, as I am no expert.

Disappointing that there is a "recently-identified" need for additional formulation work on one of the three initial products Bayer has developed.
Unfortunately, Eden have not provided us with any detail presumably because Bayer are yet to sign off on the final formulation - but we can assume Bayer continue to be keen to launch such products, else why undertake further formulation work on one product. Doubtless, Eden will inform the market when this matter is resolved and when the products are launched (unless a sleuth picks up news from Bayer directly).

The first commentary, after the figures, is Eastman.
Readers of this BB already know Eastman is champing at the bit to launch Cedroz - Eastman promotions and catalogue entries.
Clearly Eden see this as a great development with a great financial benefit.
Well, that is what I think.

I remain of the view we can expect revenue from all four sources in 2019 - 3AEY; TT; Bayer and Eastman's Cedroz.


Eden is, probably correctly due to commercial sensitivity, not providing, at this stage at any rate, the make up of the £1.2m in milestones/royalties/licence fees.
This figure is more than achieved last year.
In my experience, large companies do not part with cash to tiddlers such as Eden unless they really do see a benefit for themselves. To me such payments are harbingers of revenue and profit to come.

Eastman doubtless paid across their minimum annual fee, it is probably only some $50k, my guess,as Eastman are picking up the significant trial and regulatory costs.

So what is the other almost £400k?
Quite a sizeable figure.
Looks like a decent fee from at least one party.

Although I was hoping Sipcam and or others would have paid across fees to obtain certain rights to sustaine by 31 Dec 2018, such fees can clearly be acknowledged as coming - and perhaps there is some element in the unknown £400k?

We can certainly expect decent milestones and licence fees in the current year - certainly from Bayer and Eastman at a minimum.



The overall results are not too bad, bearing in mind the poor season for 3AEY sales. Last year contained the one-off net benefit of ~£400k in Royalty write back to the US University. Plus the BoD had signalled additional expenditure in driving forward trials etc on some of the numerous opportunities previously on the back burner due to lack of cash.
Unable to make any estimates of the GP% due to lack of numbers, at this stage.

Overall while not as good as I had hoped, Eden continue to be pushing forward on a number of fronts. Just an uplift in 3AEY sales alone would take the company to break even. Easily possible in 2019.
Add contributions from Eastman, Bayer and TT plus maybe a rabbit out the hat on sustaine and we can easily get to £5m and more PBT in the current year.
My outlook remains the same.

[supersonico] 15/1/2019 08:47

One has to ask what is the point of 7/2 Proactive unless their are further announcements before that event.

The only statement obviously missing was TT UK launch commentary ..so maybe that is imminent.

[northwick] 15/1/2019 08:40

BrucieIs it possible to change my year end price to 15p .Eden has some way to go before making a profit. It's a pity BOD still is negative with their commentary.

[supersonico] 15/1/2019 08:34

This is the best Bit.

Sustaineä, Eden's patented, natural micro-encapsulation technology, is being evaluated by an increasing number of parties, including Sipcam, on a large and growing number of active ingredients used in crop protection. This technology represents significant medium-term potential for the Company, and we are pleased with the attention it is receiving in the hands of current and new collaborators.

These are the Creative Bits:

The launch of animal health products in the USA by Eden's partner, Bayer Animal Health ("Bayer"), has been delayed due to a recently-identified need for additional formulation work on one of the three initial products Bayer has developed. It is now anticipated that the launch of these products will take place in 2019, subject to successful completion of the additional formulation work. Bayer and Eden are working closely together to expedite matters.

On 10 October 2018, the Company announced that TerpeneTech, Eden's associate company, had received regulatory clearance to sell its head-lice product in the European Economic Area. TerpeneTech is now working with its distribution partner to launch that product in the U.K. in 2019. TerpeneTech is also actively working to establish distribution partners in new territories including elsewhere in Europe and also the United States.

The TT and Bayer commentary can't be relied upon as I have said for a long time.

The Commentary on TT and Bayer is simply not Credible imo. NDA's??

This is the Generous Bit

Eden doing their best to make Supersonico look like a serious commentator:)

2015..in the coming months got us to 2016
2016..in the coming months got us to 2017
2017..in the coming months got us to 2018
2018..in the coming months got us to June 2018
June 2018..in short order/ Shelf life got us to Sept 2018
Sept 2018..New school year..gets us to Jan 2019.
Jan 2019..Additional Formulation Bayer and Nothing from TT..moves us into 2019

[brucie5] 15/1/2019 08:00

Well initial observations would include: revs if 2.8 slightly less than pencilled in figure if 3.1;. But mevalone product sales doubling year on year to 1.6m. Not yet reached b/e, but cash looks healthy still at 2.5m.

Questions still over TT and Bayer.

[investingisatrickygame] 15/1/2019 07:57

dplewis!,

I've been invested just over two years, so not a 'long-term ' holder of the nature I think you are referring to.

They need a further statement in my opinion that is more expansive on TT and in particular, Bayer. With Bayer, they owe shareholders a deeper explanation on "a recently-identified need for additional formulation work on one of the three initial products Bayer has developed" All these years and now a little bit more work? Hmmm!

We should be given a deeper understanding of developments on Sustaine too given that they qualify the opportunity as significant.

From this statement we can assume 2 are good to go, but what is the additional formulation work on product 3 all about? The positive is that 2 of the initial products appear ready and good to go.

It would also appear no milestone payments in 2018 for Cedroz and from Bayer which I would like them to qualify.

I would ignore the insecticide commentary as this is likely years off.

Eden should come out today with further and more expansive detail so that the market can better and truly understand where we are. The statement released appears consistent with those before and not really any material update on very near-term developments and income provision.

[dplewis1] 15/1/2019 07:34

How do the long term holders feel about that TU?

[supersonico] 15/1/2019 02:10

How did the US EPA and IARC reach opposite conclusions about glyphosate’s genotoxicity?

1. EPA relied on secret and biased industry studies, whereas IARC used published studies
While IARC referenced only peer-reviewed studies and reports available in the public literature, EPA relied heavily on unpublished regulatory studies commissioned by pesticide manufacturers. In fact, 95 of the 151 genotoxicity assays cited in EPA’s evaluation were from industry studies (63%), while IARC cited 100% public literature sources.

There is a stark difference in the outcomes of industry-sponsored assays versus those in the public literature. Of the 95 industry assays taken into account by EPA, only one reported a positive result (i.e. that glyphosate had a genotoxic effect), or just 1%. Among the total 211 published studies, 156 reported at least one positive result, or 74%!
……..

[investingisatrickygame] 14/1/2019 10:14

All of the largest shareholders are here based on potential, tech usp and market size. Sipcam, Livingbridge, Finn and Artemis. They've simply understood the proposition earlier than others.

I repeat that in my opinion Eden does not need to deliver for the share price to perform materially better, accepting that some will of course wish it to. No one wants to invest after the horse has bolted.

I'll predict that Eden will show a small profit for 2018.

Paint me a picture (Victor Kiam) :). Eden just needs to do it with conviction. Edison could help with that conviction. Edison and Proactive Investors are good partners to have to increase your reach, appeal, improve understanding and intensify investment in your share price. Generally speaking, brokers and PR companies are poor performers in this respect, in my experience of AIM companies.

Investor communications will always do more for an AIM listed company's share price than PR!!!!

Why, because you have control of your message and audience where PR is permission based with no control over execution as is exhibited by Eden's last two PR firms.

[supersonico] 14/1/2019 09:34

Brucie5,

No rudeness taken:) and none intended also.

Your right Groupthink is something to be careful of. I hope at least my 'think' is based on 80% facts and 20% Imagineering. Some will be inclined to reverse those numbers :)

[brucie5] 14/1/2019 09:27

Super,

And I read your posts with interest because of the depth of knowledge contained therein. For myself, I'm always trying to be aware of any risk of either 'groupthink' when I come across a bb. of the likeminded and committed; and 'confirmation bias', when I start believing my own projections irrespective of the evidence before me. I mean no rudeness here; these are rules for me, because I have often managed to break them.

But my involvement here is time specific; 2019 needs to be the year in which things start materially coming together.

Well done for buying on those dips. That is something I try to avoid myself, but again, lacking in your unqualified faith in this company, the share price for me, is often more of an indicator of direction than of value. Atm I see potential direction... upwards.

[supersonico] 14/1/2019 09:18

Brucie5

The surreal world or Imagineering Vs Empiricism.

My last big chunk of buying was when the price was between sub 8p and 10p and my average is below todays price so I contend that my long game style of research based Imagineering does indeed pay dividends and that looking at the picture over the longer term has in my case given me a sense of confidence in my judgement that is just as valid as empiricism.

I would also contend my own Imagineering has been a better guide to interpreting EDEN statements than empiricism since the 'in the coming short order' on TT and CAP has been a poor guide.

Empiricism leaves us wondering why the dual delays persist while Imagineering predicted over 100 days ago the current situation and has meant I'm 30-50% up on my last purchase and also offers a researched based idea of the Horizon.

[brucie5] 14/1/2019 09:00

Investingisatrickygame
13 Jan '19 - 20:15 - 5492 of 5492
0 0 0
Brucie5

Eden just needs to be brought to life in terms of awareness.
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How about in terms of meeting some of its own stated deadlines..?

(Bayer, TT..)

While I'm in this for the bigger picture, but I'm less inclined to Super's imagineerism than my own version of evidential empiricism. Otherwise, I would have taken my current position three years ago with nothing to show. Part of that evidence will be related to scale, and increasing revenues.

I don't think I'm going to be 'groomed' by Jak… or anyone... But I do try to listen, wherever a conversation is possible, to those who hold different views to my own.

[investingisatrickygame] 13/1/2019 20:15

Brucie5

Eastman will buy in millions over 29 countries. They haven't invested millions to receive less.

The marker is down. A 3 year forecast will show the same.

Eden just needs to be brought to life in terms of awareness. Maybe this next month starting this week will finally see that happen.