Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[supersonico] 05/1/2019 09:30

"There is nothing I like to see more than a combination of horrible sentiment and improving fundamentals. I see that now in gold".

Michael Krieger @LibertyBlitz

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 15:11

From 2018, half yearly:

Revenue for the period of £0.68m (H1 2017: £1.03m) • Product sales £0.68m (H1 2017: £0.43m) • Upfront and milestone payments of £nil (H1 2017: £0.59m) • Operating loss for the period of £0.93m (H1 2017: profit of £0.21m) • Cash and cash equivalents of £2.62m (H1 2017: £3.66m)


Spot that?

Product sales £0.68m (H1 2017: £0.43m)

Mevalone only began sales in France in 2017. There is a huge curve to be undergone in terms of increasing sales traction, in all its territories.

In addition to which, EDEN is transitioning its business model: viz: (from 2017 results)

'As a reflection of the change in the Company’s business model, approximately 41% of the Company’s revenue was derived from the sale of products, rather than licence-based royalties and up-front or milestone payments. Going forward, this percentage should continue to increase as the percentage of revenue derived from existing partners has almost fully transitioned to supply and/or distribution agreements (rather than licence agreements). It is important to note that the transition of certain legacy agreements (from licensing to product sales) had not been completed with some partners by the end of 2017, but we expect this to be completed in time for the 2018 growing season."

So this is what I'm looking for. For me, it's got to be about Product sales, Product sales, Product sales.


Sorry Jak. You're on filter. I'll unfilter next time we have a meaningful update to see what you have to say. Till then, toodlepip.

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 13:35

Why are increasing Mevalone sales unlikely, and in new territories? Why is Cedroz 'unlikely' to meet with success? Why is it 'unlikely' that Sipcam has seen something valuable in the Sustain technology, when it is willing to take up to 10% of the company and pay subsequent milestones to take up its rights? Why the interest of Eastman and Sumitomo? Why Bayer?

Genuinely puzzled by your apparent indifference to these indications.

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 13:20

"You appear to be referencing future expectations when the original comment was expressed as "Eden has been building revenues this last couple of years".
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Yes, point taken. But you also need to address my substantive point.
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"I apologise for using facts to prove a point, I realise that that can offend some people."
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I am really not offended by facts, though the spinning of them can be extremely misleading. You clearly don't like this share. Why then are you here?

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 13:15

Super/investing...

I'm positive about this share... some would say, excessively so.

But I'm very wary of stories which fail over time to deliver. And it's no good berating the market for not seeing what you see. Oftentimes they see precisely what you don't.

But my feeling, fwiw, is that we will see material uplift this year... in revenues (albeit from a low base, and from say, 3m to 4m) and products come to market. Followed by greater visibility on 2020, which may even convince the Bad Boy Jak.

And lastly, but not leastly, on whatever it is Sipcam intend to do with Sustaine.

This year. Not in three years.

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 13:11

Jak,



'House broker Shore Capital said: "Management now seems to be building a more sustainable commercial platform with 41% of revenues generated from product sales compared to licence agreement royalties in FY2017. We expect this to grow in the coming year and beyond as management look to continue to develop its product portfolio amid a market that is increasingly adopting biological products."'


I'm particularly interested in quality of those revenues, ie.rising sales from product, as opposed to milestones. This will of course be one of my metrics for success this year. Starting soon, I hope with a sales update on Mevalone for H2 2018. I'm sure in due course you'll feel free to comment.

[investingisatrickygame] 04/1/2019 13:08

Quite right Super,

And what is our IP valued at in our accounts!

If Xinova, Sipcam and others are right about Eden tech, #Sustaine, why are we sat at a market value of just £25 and choosing not to do anything about this?

Super is absolutely right. Why?

[supersonico] 04/1/2019 13:01

Brucie5,

We do indeed speculate on what is in Eden Patents but for those who wish to generalise and take it from the horses mouth we have Xinova who see a lot of Patents and describe Eden tech as a Game-Changing-Idea In Crop protection and Anti Microbial.

They see a lot of patents so I trust them on their judgement.

Just imagine what the Xinova statement means for a minute and then decide if that description in any way matches the company PR story so far and then a good question I often ask myself is, Why not?

[investingisatrickygame] 04/1/2019 12:43

Brucie5,

I'd have to disagree with your opinion on two fronts.

1) Eden has been building revenues this last couple of years, albeit modest and revenue has made no impact on the share price whatsoever.

2) If you go to the other end of the scale, look at Twitter or Tesla for revenues and losses and then look at their share price and valuation. That is built around what they could be. Tesla fails to keep its promises on car production all the time, does not make a profit and produces 10% of the cars that Ford Motor Company delivers. Ford is highly profitable. Tesla however, is about changing the future.

Eden too is about changing the future and the future is here and now on our doorstep # Sustaine and across multiple sectors > agro-chemical, consumer health and soon to be, animal health.

Investors are excited about the current Tesla products and the future possibilities built around global appeal

Investors should be excited about Eden's current products and the future possibilities, also built around global appeal, PLUS importantly, regulatory change and global demand to address to deliver better results in a non-toxic and sustainable way.

Elon Musk tells the world how great his current products are and how great also his new products will be. People mentally buy into Elon Musk because he has the power of his convictions and does deliver a great, innovative and directionally correct, product.

We ought to take a leaf out of his book, albeit a small one if we choose, and start telling investors what a great, innovative and directionally correct product(s) we have too.

Industry partners can do it to their audience. Eden should do it to their investor audience, especially now that we are where we are...an inflexion point among others.

[brucie5] 04/1/2019 12:14

Investing, we simply need to see revenues build, and EDEN delivering on their promises and assurances. All else is of academic interest. Fascinating as it might be to speculate on what might be buried deep inside the patents..

If there is not delivery this year, I will be reconsidering my decision here. But a year is long. So I can wait.

[investingisatrickygame] 04/1/2019 11:25

With markets a little bit wobbly it is, in my opinion, a great opportunity for companies like Eden who have a wealth of news to deliver to adjust tactics and capitalise upon the opportunity that presents itself.

AttyG has already highlighted the potential profits for 2019 and underpinned it with the reasons why and sources of income.

In wobbly markets AIM can be volatile with people taking their money out of 'riskier' investments IF they cannot see a near-term rise and protection of a share price that is.

Rather than Eden perhaps being in a possible position (should it happen) where in a downward market they say their share price is holding up well or in line with others (which is a standard and sometimes weak stance to take), Eden has a chance to showcase now why they are in a strong place commercially, whereas some other investment opportunities might not be so and therefore, successfully position themselves as a good place to direct investment funds for those looking to invest.

Okay, that's a long sentence :), but Eden has so much news due that will be commercial and revenue generating and the start of it happened with the new Sipcam distribution agreements.

Eden has a real chance to step out from the crowd and hopefully include Lykele, our non-exec Chairman in any visual communications and show that Eden Research is a good place to be right now and therefore attract new money and new people into its commercial story and share price.

Why wouldn't you!!!!

[supersonico] 04/1/2019 09:21

Gm Northwick,

Is it not obvious?

[northwick] 04/1/2019 08:47

Gm SuperCould you kindly expand and explain your post please.

[supersonico] 04/1/2019 08:28

The Masters of the Redwings are making The Imagineer look like a Prophet.

"For the gate is small, and the way is narrow that leads to Head Lice Lotion , and few are those who find it".

Mathew 7:13-23 .

Here Ends Week 1 of 2019.

And the question is..what's more likely AR or TT ?

[supersonico] 04/1/2019 07:10

Whatever is happening to the world's insects?

"The current state of our wildlife and globally is approximately Catastrophic. We are loosing biodiversity at a rate which is of geological proportions"

David Macdonald (University of Oxford)


…………………………………..

Judge Grants Monsanto Request Limiting Evidence in Roundup Cancer Claims Trials.

A federal judge overseeing lawsuits alleging Bayer AG’s glyphosate-based weed killer causes cancer has issued a ruling that could severely restrict evidence that the plaintiffs consider crucial to their cases.

U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria in San Francisco in an order on Thursday granted Bayer unit Monsanto’s request to split an upcoming trial into two phases. The order initially bars lawyers for plaintiff Edwin Hardeman from introducing evidence that the company allegedly attempted to influence regulators and manipulate public opinion.

[investingisatrickygame] 03/1/2019 14:30

Brucie5,

I lay no criticism with the following post, only my own personal opinion.

Whilst those price targets are such a small subset of opinion, it is disappointing for me to see investors view of Eden's price opportunity.

This could of course be A) a reflection of people's opinion of management to move the price along based of historic performance and time allocation to the same OR B) a lack of understanding of the potential revenues (contractual and new agreed oncoming revenue streams)that Eden will generate.

Either way, it lies with management to put clarity around value and potential because the market needs it as they do not understand Eden as they should. What they do understand is that there is potential with ground breaking technology, but they do not understand what this translates to in value. This is why you have stale bulls living in hope and also why you have frustrated sellers who have lost patience. Both sides of the coin are understandable.

Eden doesn't need cash and is now self sustaining.

No doubt an injection of cash might expedite developments and I reckon this could be raised through Sipcam on an interest bearing loan. They could negotiate cash into terms of any contractual agreement with any willing partner (Sipcam, Bayer, ANO). In other words, there is likely no need to go the placing route from their commercial infancy and revenues will soon be large enough to repay capital.

Eden could even look at a share buy back in due course to get the value of the shares to where they should be and at the same time put more value in the Company.

I am hoping that Edison, Hardman or ANO will independently deliver an investor report on Eden which will also show value today and potential over the next three years. This way Eden can be seen not to be pushing their shares if that is how they feel, but they could certainly do some pushing right now and still stay within a comfort zone as far as price is concerned.

Finally, the Directors have share options with no vesting conditions and Warrants (which can be converted to shares). This is on pages 42 & 43 of the 2017 annual report. There is 5,025,000 share options as of 2017 with exercise prices between 8p & 16p with a weighted average contractual life of 1.5 years, so roughly June this year if I understand this correctly.

The Warrants , 3,350,000, have exercise prices between 11p & 30p with a weighted average contractual life of 1.9 years.

Therefore, if I am interpreting this correctly, the Directors have around 6 months on average to get the share price above 16p and be 'in the money' and towards the end of the year to get the price above 30p so as to exercise the warrants and again, be in the money. Unfortunately, the number of shares and warrants allocated are not detailed explicitly by time.

AttyG,

Feel free to correct my interpretation on the options and warrants available to the BoD and the exercise time available.

[brucie5] 03/1/2019 10:48

Super, interesting post. Yes indeed, confirm the macro trend. Can't wait for EDEN to become involved with the larger 'wedges' within its known verticals.