Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[chrischas] 11/12/2018 15:32

I,m going on holiday and not thinking about it

[brucie5] 11/12/2018 15:12

bjlk: Yes, of course, I hear what you say. But better to have a view of what you value this to be worth. By all means change your mind, but only when the story changes.

[brucie5] 11/12/2018 15:10

Further to my post of December 7 re. profit projections, I note that MW gave the following suggestions in an October update:

*Mike Walters says, from 19/10
“...we are looking for revenues of about £3.1m for 2018 and £4m for 2019, and no significant profits before 2021."
"
This contrasts with Attyg's, "a profit of say £10m in 2019 due to Cedroz"


I doubt very much that Cedroz will have taken off by end of next year, given the slow progress in sales build we've seen in Mevalone. My own projection was:

FY 2019 6m (acceleration of 3AEY + incipient sales at animal health + consumer health (*MW says 4m revs)
FY 2020 12m (significant leap in profits as 3AEY used for more applications; incipient sales of Cedroz); sustaine being used for encapsulation purposes by SIPCAM)


But maybe that significant leap, as Mike suggests, lies a year further out?

So I'm pruning my forecast to 4m FY 2019; 6m FY 2020; 12m FY 2021.


Still a three year projection, with lots of possible upsides deliberately not included.

And with 2021 being the BIG YEAR.

[bjlk] 11/12/2018 15:07

Brucie I get what you're saying but this jam tomorrow is getting rather thin , they have to stick to what they say and then deliver due to credibility in the market.. I think they , in my mind have cried wolf for the last time.. it's time to see the wolf to validate the shepherd boy..I think quite a few lth feel the same and i would expect to see quite a lot of movement if nothing is forthcoming due to holding size..

[brucie5] 11/12/2018 14:24

Investingisatrickygame
11 Dec '18 - 13:37 - 5138 of 5138
0 0 0


Someone tell me, what am I missing?!
---------------------------------------------

Do you believe this will come good?

If yes, relax, move away from your screen.
Come back in a month.

[investingisatrickygame] 11/12/2018 13:37

bjik

Even an update on our relationships would be welcome. I find it strange that we can't even do that. That's not even a regulatory requirement. If Eden puts out timelines then it is reasonable to expect news on the same, isn't it? We have been conditioned to those timelines, have we not?

They may not deliver news of a regulatory nature, but a simple bit of commentary as to current standing would not go a miss.

Someone tell me, what am I missing?!

[supersonico] 11/12/2018 11:32

What Is Natural Wine? Here's How It's Different From Other Wines


………………….

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Consortium AG #Biocontrole: the Minister of Agriculture @dguillaume26 has testified to his interest in the work carried out by the consortium 🐞🌱. Let's go further, accelerate the ;D private public R& with a rate CIR plus 60% during 10yrs.

[investingisatrickygame] 11/12/2018 09:31

8.5 days left pre-Christmas.

How can you possibly influence your audience when their minds and their time is elsewhere!

We are awaiting what is potentially Eden's biggest, most strategic, most important RNS yet in association with Sipcam who, as strategic investors, should understand the importance of timing.

Where is the RNS? How will Eden do its content justice in terms of audience influence?

Where is all the other promised newsflow?

For sure, Eden reads this BB. So for sure, they see investors frustration on Company RNS'd timelines!

[brucie5] 11/12/2018 08:08

They're gonna keep us waiting...

[investingisatrickygame] 09/12/2018 15:11

hxxps://www.stockmarketclock.com/exchanges/lse/market-holidays/2018

Just saying, 10.5 days before Christmas, 2.5 days after for

1) Sipcam news

Commercial and Development Agreements with Sipcam

The agreements with Sipcam are summarised as follows:

· Collaboration and Evaluation & Option Agreements

- Provides Sipcam with the first right to negotiate for the distribution rights for new plant protection products that Eden develops in countries where Sipcam has an affiliate, subject to certain ongoing commitments and evaluations.

- Grants Eden access to Sipcam-owned technologies and R & D facilities.

- Grants Sipcam the right to evaluate a number of Sipcam-Oxon Group's active substances encapsulated using Eden's Sustaineä microencapsulation technology. This includes combinations with Eden's own active ingredients.

- Provides a framework agreement for subsequent licence and/or supply agreements under the collaboration.


2) Bayer news - 4 Animal Healthcare products

I imagine we will have an RNS this week if we want the news to sink in and people to respond to it positively, before Christmas arrives and the obligatory holidays.

[brucie5] 09/12/2018 08:00

Thank you, good post.
Re. New products and difficulty of gaining sales traction I was really meaning the pet & consumer products. I'm not sure how, short of any milestones, we will gain any meaningful short term sales over coming year.

Investing, that's fine, be as argumentative as you like, that's how we arrive at a clearer idea of the likely set of outcomes. I am very respectful of the considerable research on this board, and appreciative of your tolerance of a different point of view from a comparative newcomer.

We are also essentially on the same page.

[investingisatrickygame] 08/12/2018 23:31

Brucie5,

It is not my intent to argue, simply to establish clarity where we can. Please re- read Super's post 5113.

You say "New products hitting the shops take ages to get sales traction" and you refer to the Sipcam options.

SIPCAM -

Sipcam has already taken the option of Mevalone in Australia and New Zealand as offered in the June 2017 RNS and as confirmed in the 15th October 2018 RNS.

It is likely, in my opinion, that they will take every Mevalone option to distribute that they can and that they can fulfil. This being new territories and label extensions in existing territories.

If I am not mistaken, Sipcam has been trialling Eden technology using current Sipcam products on sale and also Co-encapsulation with Eden's active ingredients. Certainly in the former, as I understand it, this would result in a like for like replacement, so NOT A NEW PRODUCT LAUNCH. A new face lift model if you will, enhanced properties and the same name, meaning Sipcam and Eden will immediately have existing market share, so immediate high level income.

What will be new is the technology launch itself, if indeed they do, into new areas

Cedroz by Eastman is a replacement product again, with existing market share, so NOT a pure New Product Launch, thus providing immediate high level income. Again, this is how I understand it.

We have been told to expect higher sales of Mevalone in H2 2018 and also, I believe, forward ordering for 2019.

When will Bayer deliver product income x 4 products....not sure, but Cedroz, Mevalone, Bayer and Sipcam new territories, licence extensions and Sustaine product deliveries will all deliver milestone payments, likely invoiced in December 2018, January 2019 latest.

I understand income to be more imminent than you suggest and not as far away as you think.

Again, none of this is to be argumentative, simply to add clarity that is hopefully correct.

AttyG, Super or ANO, please correct me if I am wrong!

[brucie5] 08/12/2018 17:57

New products hitting the shops take ages to get sales traction. I use frontline for our dog, and because you really don't y want to risk a flea infestation you are unlikely bto try out a new formulation without vet's recommendation. So even assuming we get these announced I'm not seeing any excitement except here!

Sipcam, however, would be confirmation of the larger story, and indeed the likelihood of a bid premium, particularly if they up their stake.

I'm afraid I'm a relative unenthusiastic about this share's immediate prospects of advancement, if you think 60pc chance of a 50pc rise between now and Christmas is being despondent. The real acceleration lies further out, for which I'm very happy to wait.

[chrischas] 08/12/2018 17:23

Despondency after much talking up.!

I see the sales figures being “ Quiet”.

That’s based solely on the shyness of one company and the climatological conditions

That severely restricted potential sales.

There is long term potential because of the Products .

So who is going to shout it out from the roof tops?

[brucie5] 08/12/2018 12:53

Final post for the morning.

Chart is bullish, and conspicuously so in comparison to the larger AIM market, which has tanked: so clearly looking forward to the above. I seem unable any more to post charts here - if anyone can help, please let me know how! But the MACD has turned up, and the 12p level has shown good support for first time since 2015, when it briefly bounced off it on the way down from 25. All of which proves nothing, except to suggest that the market is not quite unaware of what might be happening before end of year.


In brief, my possible outcomes:

1. No further Sipcam otions - share price down to 8p, while Lykele explains why they're not interested

2. Sipcam takes its options - late teens (17-20p)

3. Sipcam ups it stake - 20-30p range.

[brucie5] 08/12/2018 12:48

Let's assume Sipcam takes up the options and has had success, I think we should. They might even seek to increase their stake in Eden if they have met with success.....why not.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Attributable probability to three Sipcams events:(edited)

1. take up options alone: 65%
2. options + increased stake: 15%
3. no options taken: 20%

3. is a present risk, which will hit confidence. We shouldn't forget it. 1. is maybe largely factored in already, but will likely see continued gentle strengthening of the share price , already in bullish formation. 2. Would see new 20-30p range level opening up, I have little doubt.

[investingisatrickygame] 08/12/2018 12:41

So I think the problem with end of year announcements is people sell into the rise to buy some Christmas cheer and presents. It's so predictable and obviously cyclical.

Let's assume Sipcam takes up the options and has had success, I think we should. They might even seek to increase their stake in Eden if they have met with success.....why not.

I am going to assume that Bayer is finally going to be contractual and commercialised.

I see both of the above as generating near immediate income, not some distance in the future as Eastman was 2 years ago. Hence my thought's on fair value.


Super, join in :):):)

[brucie5] 08/12/2018 12:16

"How December unfolds."

With you there. Of course there is the possibility that Sipcam will not take up their options, and what then?

But assuming that they do, I'm not sure the market will give EDEN that much credit, as it's still about the future, which can be discounted away on the basis that the future always remains contingent on something else. Who foresaw Bayer selling their animal health products?

So if I may reference your post of November 6th,

"50p by year end would be on the right track. 17-20p would be a disaster. An example of how worn down people are with their expectations are 5 years of the share price going nowhere."


I think we're more likely set for your 'disaster' scenario , which as disasters go, I can most certainly live with for time being. Particularly if it manages to peek above the 20p level and stay there.

[investingisatrickygame] 08/12/2018 12:01

We have advanced plenty this last two years, so I'm talking about where we are now.

I'll forgo imminent break-even for mass adoption. Let's agree to see how December unfolds then revisit our respective opinions

[brucie5] 08/12/2018 11:21

So i retain my 30- 50p target for next year,until I see greater clarity, or the impact of a further factor outside the visible products for sale: Viz, sustaine being adopted for wider uses, or evidence that mavalone can be monetised for other pathogens in the short term. Not so willing to change my model for products that are still in some sense hypothetically profitable. A case of Show me the money, I'm afraid.

[brucie5] 08/12/2018 11:13

Investing, I don't feel aggrieved, far from it, I am very grateful to be in at the 12/13 level! But as a rule of thumb if something looks to good to be true.... Scroll back through posters more bullish prognostications over last two years, and say, hand over heart that you've been right all along! There's always the stuff that gets in the way of adoption in any disruptive technology story, and most don't make it. I won't bore you with examples, you know as well as I: but they are part of the reason why the market refuses you accept your current valuation - or mine!

For example: two objections of jakknife that will continue to resonate with market doubters are 1. The emergence into break even, and 2. The actual scale of sales of 3aey. That's why I'd really like more detailed breakdown on mevalone, country by country, so we can see how this product alone will take us through b/e and into the kind of parabolic growth in revenues that I'm not currently seeing till year 3 of my projection.

[investingisatrickygame] 08/12/2018 09:35

Investors have been subdued all year, some may say longer. 30-50p in isolation from where we currently sit sounds very good, but next Autumn examples how little impetus there is to see share price value and commercial success aligned.

Shareholders expectations and timelines are unrealistic to the downside. Brucie5, you should be aggrieved that we are not in that trading range now!!!

Eastman, signed. Goes commercial on a staggered basis in 2019. Product for product replacement, immediate market share. That deal alone based on revenues should see 50p a share. Why should that be now? Well, earnings forecasts are normally assessed over three years and Eastman will be in full flow before that timeframe ends. Ordinarily, this would be factored into the price. No Shore Cap report to reflect this. MiFiD wouldn't let you and me see this anyway, but Edison would.

Anyone who understands Eden well will know the shares are currently massively undervalued and be totally frustrated about the lack of true value in the quoted share price.

In the absence of a good broker seeking to correct this, Eden management should step forward.

[supersonico] 07/12/2018 20:10

Chrischas,

I have no superior knowledge..

All Guesses all the time.

Best of luck

[brucie5] 07/12/2018 19:34

If it's not in a 30-50p range by next autumn then all our speculations will have been badly misplaced, and some more than others. But from given the increment that such a rise represents from current level, I would be very satisfied if we got there.