Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[chrischas] 07/12/2018 19:27

Supersónico:

I’ll bow to your superior knowledge.

I’m in it until October at least.Then I will review very carefully.

[supersonico] 07/12/2018 19:01

Chrischas,

Personally I don't think the Eden board need educating on this.

Their actions or absence of them at this stage is by design imo.

Eden's Partners will do the PR talking business and take the glory.

[chrischas] 07/12/2018 18:48

You are all thrashing out the reasons why this technology needs to be promoted right now.
It is very comprehensive and mostly undeniable.

I just hope the board members,one and all are being educated


That is THE big conundrum.

[supersonico] 07/12/2018 18:16

Investing,

I'm hoping the simple message in the Retail PR for TT Headlice will get the retail investor on board which will alas disturb our congenial discussions.

[investingisatrickygame] 07/12/2018 17:50

Super,

This is the problem. The investment community doesn't understand where Eden is in its commercial cycle. Institutions maybe, but they have rules and guidelines.

If PI's really understood they'd be piling in!

Why don't they understand :). Don't get me started!

[supersonico] 07/12/2018 17:34

Well,

TT are replacing a whole range of non functioning Head lice products.

Eastman are selling into regulatory pressure.

Sipcam I expect to pick up all 3 of the 'developmental' wedges in the crop protection Vertical and positive moves from the multiple evaluations.

Bayer selling 4 CAP's into huge Market.

Eden selling toll concentrate into all these markets with commercial launch scale equals woooosh imo and PR will contrast radically from the kind of word of mouth wholesaler /Vineyard /tradeshow type model we had with Mevalone which is sold to Conservative farmers used to conventional chemistry who need plenty of reasons to change from the familiar to a new tool.

Our TT and Bayer customers are at the retail end and will be much more tuned in to the sustainability Mega trend narrative and therefore more accessible and primed to the 'Sustaine' branding Message

That is a start and what has been declared however I expect the 10 out of 13 TT products that are not described as still 'under development' to be part of the woooosh2

[brucie5] 07/12/2018 17:13

Agreed that aagri trend is our friend, but one could say the same for countless green energy propositions which currently flounder. Disruptive tech is also difficult to market at immediate scale, which is why I feel we need to be patient over three years.

[brucie5] 07/12/2018 17:10

Super, when are you expecting the Whoosh?

[investingisatrickygame] 07/12/2018 16:39

Agreed super AND the Sipcam announcement has a contractually legally binding date of the 31/12/2018, doesn't it?

[investingisatrickygame] 07/12/2018 16:39

error post

[supersonico] 07/12/2018 15:50

Way to conservative imo ... I realise that's your intention so fair enough and thanks.

For Every market we are going into resistance or regulation are turning it into a vacuum ready for biological non/less toxic solutions, replacing or enhancing current chemistry.

So I expect more of a wooosh..with the sustainability Mega Trend oiling the wheels.

[brucie5] 07/12/2018 15:24

Wewey, I think dampened expectations is exactly what we should be developing. Along with a willingness to model discounted future values. So here's mine. Be gentle with it!

I'm trying to come up with a discounted valuation for EDEN based on hypothetical earnings over next three years (2018-21). That seems about as far out as one can project with any degree of reasonableness, given the accumulating number of assumptions one has to make with each imaginative advance into the future. I'm also mainly basing around the crop science products, and my starting place is Atty's report back from the AGM, which in turn references Shore's projected numbers for 2018, as a starting point. Viz:

"There was a some discussions about what numbers are expected for this year to which the company referred to shore"s latest projections
Revenue of £3m
EBITDA (£0.1m)
PBT (£0.8m)

Shore numbers are very conservative and are worked on what Eden actually have as commercialised products."

Atty goes on to project: "turnover of £3m plus and break even for Dec 2018 ( his view) with a profit of say £10m in 2019 due to Cedroz; 3AEY kicking off big time; Bayer promoting their new animal health products; TT succeeding to take a decent size of the head lice market, plus new products - see their site; plus milestones for what I expect to be multiple co-encapsulation deals with multiple partners.

So here's a projection from me, somewhat pruning back his 2019 earnings, because I think the acceleration of eranings is likely to take longer than we think, if the past is any guide. So:

FY 2018 3m (largely off 3AEY + milestones)
FY 2019 6m (acceleration of 3AEY + incipient sales at animal health + consumer health
FY 2020 12m (significant leap in profits as 3AEY used for more applications; incipient sales of Cedroz); sustaine being used for encapsulation purposes by SIPCAM)
FY 2021 25m (acceleration of all the above: Cedroz really kicking in)


25m x PE 20 = 500m = share price of £2.50.


Discount from there. Variables include:

Profits could undershoot/overshoot
What PE to apply to a company that's growing earnings at say, 40%?
Doesn't include likelihood of a takeover for some/all the business
Doesn't give any/much value for animal/consumer health
How do you value Sustaine?


I would say you have to halve and halve again for this sort of projection, to reach current proper value. And then halve again to find bargain level. Incidentally, I'm pretty much equating revenues with earnings, because operating costs will become an increasingly minute part of turnover, unless EDEN mushrooms to become something much larger, and I see little sign of that in its existing plans.


So £2.50 becomes 1.25, becomes 60p. Halve again to get 30p as bargain level.


I think that's where we are now. We should be at 30p. And I can see us getting there in H1 2019 with the right news flow to suggest we are indeed on course for the above. This may seem a devastatingly unambitious figure for several here. But don't overlook the effects of headwinds of the broader markets, and the seemingly endless capacity for this share to disappoint!

FWIW, NAI.

[weyweyumfozo] 07/12/2018 14:55

I wouldn't expect too much regarding 3AEY sales for H2 as there didn't seem to be a lot of damp weather this year.

Regarding co-encapsulation deals by the end of the year, it wouldn't surprise me if they appeared a few weeks late. I seem to remember a previous big deal overrunning the allowed deadline.

The only thing that I expect to be on time is nit treatment to be on the shelves in January.

Sorry to sound a tad negative, but it will be worth waiting for IMO.

[investingisatrickygame] 07/12/2018 14:48

Yes, the Company won't give you that breakdown

[brucie5] 07/12/2018 14:38

I think it's remarkable that EDEN is able to maintain such a bullish chart. This is not a market for bulls, I'm, afraid: most peeps will be in cash conservation mode. That said, those of us who see the story will be holding/accumulating, as we believe the potential far exceeds the current avalue


I'd really like to see more of a breakdown on sales of Mevalone in EU and Kenya. To use your word, 'granularity', it would be most helpful to see what sort of scale we have in the different countries, and their rates of growth. It's difficult without this to know what sort of an asset it is, notwithstanding the fact that we also await further news on how it might be used/sold for other pathogens. One of the main counters to EDEN's current business proposition is that its product is unlikely to be sold at scale because farmers are inherently conservative. So it would be nice to figures that show otherwise.


This full year will be particularly interesting as I understand that Mevalone sales were likely to be weighted towards the H2, which is hardly surprising given the timing of the European wine harvest.

Then we should also have New Zealand and Australia coming online, to offer seasonal polarity.

I would like to feel that current share price is more than underpinned by current and potential international sales of Mevalone. Once we get sales in the US and South America, this will add again to the proposition. But we still have no idea, it seems, as to the scale of sales and market share.

Any comments?

[investingisatrickygame] 07/12/2018 14:21

Zero trades today at such a critical lead up to announcements. How pathetic.

[supersonico] 07/12/2018 11:31

For Balance:



'Bayer and other chemical companies are fighting a plan by the European Commission that would allow critical researchers to check pesticide studies ahead of approvals
Chemical company Bayer is fighting against a plan from the EU Commission for more transparency in the controversial approval of pesticides and GM crops, according to a report in the German daily Taz. The association of European pesticide producers ECPA, which is chiefly controlled by the German company, has rejected in a position paper the most important points of the Commission's draft regulation'.

[mirandaj] 07/12/2018 10:37

For interest:



Friday - December 7, 2018
First Anniversary of Bayer’s Transparency Initiative
Bayer committed to transparency: Posts more than 300 glyphosate safety study summaries online

[investingisatrickygame] 07/12/2018 09:43

I'm not sure Sipcam will offer anything, that said they are well placed with their strategic stake and Sumitomo behind them.

As for 55p+, that should be easily maintainable, no matter how far away in price terms it may seem today.

[brucie5] 06/12/2018 22:12

Wishful thinking... It will come when it's good and ready. Nevertheless, our little boat is fast approaching the broader rapids. A small steer from Sipcam/Eastman will no doubt be very helpful in showing our boyancy and agility to manoeuvre. I noticed that the MACD had turned upwards this morning, so who knows, but news is certainly due.

[chrischas] 06/12/2018 17:03

So are Sipcam going to offer 55+ ,that would turn a lot of heads?I still think there could be a lot of downplaying on those figures to be announced..
I reckon the phone line to Italy or the meetings going on are Multo Bene between the head(s)that matter.

[supersonico] 05/12/2018 09:50

Maybe some Animal health news today as I'm told it's Capital Markets Day of @Bayer in London and CEO Werner Baumann is likely talking about the company’s strategy, priorities and targets.

[supersonico] 05/12/2018 08:08

Investing,

Your post 5091

'Sipcam June 2017 Agreements RNS

And where is Eden with the "Pursue commercialisation of animal health products outside of the United States" taken from the same RNS using the Placing proceeds received!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!'


This appears to show that Bayer chose not to take or Eden chose not to licence the EU part or even a Worldwide option for the 4 Companion Animal Products (CAP).

Which means we have potentially another large player for EU CAP and World Wide CAP which is yet to be announced. This widens the net on my previous guesses and broadens the choices of partners. What has not changed to date is the parallel nature of the delays so either they are in a holding pattern for Regulatory purposes or Commercial launch or both or None of the above.

[dplewis1] 05/12/2018 08:02

Sorry, ignore.. it's gresham which bought Livingbridge..

[dplewis1] 05/12/2018 08:01

Livingbridge out, Baronsmead in..