Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 01/12/2018 14:45

PS. My >£1 target over next three/four years will no doubt be scoffed by AttyG, who I seem to remember, is looking for £5 over similar period. I'd be very interested to know how he has arrived at that figure, which equates to a billion £ mcap. To me that would imply earnings of not less than £40m. Do-able, I guess, but I'd be curious to see how he projects these figures.

[brucie5] 01/12/2018 14:12

Good posts, Super. I find this a truly fascinating share in the sense that it is a real detective game in which private investors have the opportunity, at some risk notwithstanding, to discover what the market has overlooked. I took a similar position in BTG in 2008/9, and only wish I'd held, as the bits of the puzzle did eventually come together in a way I thought they must. But I tried my best to model values on the different earnings streams, and then put them together over a time scale. Value and time scale being the crucial elements.


Intuitively, my time scale is between three and four years, which sees me into my sixties! It is also a very likely window for 1. Cedroz and Mevalone to become well established in the US and EU. And 2. for biopesticides to become a far more important part of the overall market, reflecting both environmental and health concerns. By 2022, I would expect the crop vertical, if still in the hands of EDEN, to be producing earnings to the company of well in excess of £10m, which on a PE of 20, would see this share on upwards of £1 value. Just look at the article above, and that rate of increase, and consider who will be attending to Eden's interest: Sipcam and Eastman.

As for the other two verticals, I'm most excited by the companion animals, as I know how much pet owners are willing to spend on their little mooches, and it may become increasingly unacceptable for dogowners to cover the muts with chemicals which then get washed off into rivers, with consequent damage to water courses. It will be very interesting to see who takes this segment from Bayer, when they divest, and who handles the American business.

[brucie5] 01/12/2018 13:57

North America is projected to dominate the market, while Europe is projected to be the fastest-growing market for biopesticides through 2022
Foliar spray is estimated to be the most widely used application method for biopesticides.
Foliar spray is estimated to account for the largest share through the forecast period as this method is easy to use, helps in covering the entire surface area of the leaf, and is available at a low cost. It also aids in avoiding the problems of leaching in soils and prompts a rapid response in crop plants at farms.
Bionematicides is projected to be the fastest-growing segment during the forecast period.
The bionematicides segment is projected to register the highest growth rate from 2017 to 2022 Owing to its wide usage in seed treatment and the increasing focus of crop protection companies on new product developments of bionematicides.

[investingisatrickygame] 01/12/2018 12:31

Brucie5,

It seems to me that that in order to deliver value to shareholders and to escalate that value, Eden could in existing verticals that they have proven up

1) Expand distribution rights and product extensions for a set period, delivering exclusivity for say a 10 year period, a bit like a patent life that can then either be renewed or simply lapse. One would hope this would deliver much bigger up-front payments
2) Sell a vertical for a significant sum to a major a perhaps take a royalty for a limited period of time in association with that agreement. Crop
3)Partner with a major and form a new company to deliver into a sector/vertical, thus retaining part-ownership and receiving on-going income, as well as a significant up-front payment for putting the tech into new co. This way Eden shareholders would benefit, immediately and on-going

Eden cannot with all of the potential it has, deliver in fair time to existing shareholders with such a small team and such a wide and deep solutions portfolio. So, they have to deliver value quicker using the relationships and tools available to them. Sipcam, Eastman and hopefully Bayer will all be good partners. But, within this model, shareholders have not seen any return in two years since the Eastman deal was signed. Extrapolate that timeframe for each new major company that deals with Eden and we might all be in retirement before we see anything. Some I know are well into retirement. Will they ever see their Eden investment materialise and have both the financial success and peace of mind, knowing that they chose and invested well.

What is the current value of the Eden portfolio?
Would 30p/50p/100p today value Eden fairly, relative to its potential?
What does a mature Eden portfolio look like in value terms for many years to come based on Consumer health, Animal health, Personal care and the Agro-chemical industry?
Given what we hear about Sustaine, how broad is its application and how long sustainable is this tech against emerging technologies, in other words is there any future proofing, what is its Lifetime Vale (LTV).

Will Sustaine be sold outright in a vertical, by product or across all product types in that vertical, or will it be sold in a vertical on a subscriptive basis? If so, what could we expect in monthly or annual recurring revenues on a subscription basis.

Takeovers, divisional sales and alike leave questions over relationship futures.

Eden has to OUT value. I'm sure they're more than aware of that, but I am not totally sure of the strategy to deliver value to shareholders, today, tomorrow and in years to come.

It would be nice to hear absolute clarity on the above so that shareholders can truly understand the value prospect and the timeline to milestone values in the share price.

Doing this might also spur industry players to more closely and more quickly focus on Eden's prospects and what it may mean for them in terms of a part merger in new co, buying an Eden vertical or taking over Eden outright.

Value needs to out in part or full. Layers of value can be realised on a rising basis. Everyone invested by virtue of employee status of shareholder investor status wants value. So far, Eden hasn't found a formula for delivering that into the share price, no matter the partner or future revenue prospects e.g. Eastman

[brucie5] 01/12/2018 10:06

Ok, thanks. Seems to me another reason why Eden is likely to be taken over, either segmentally or as a whole. Maybe Bayer could take the whole vertical of animal and consumer health, and then sell off the former once the four trailed products are up and running. Or alternatively, the whole kaboosh, adding cedroz and mevalone to their agricultural products empire and selling off the bits they don't want.

The more I consider it, the more problematic it seems to have such huge potential being managed by four people, including a part timer. I realise that this is why they license out, but to achieve its industrial scale potential you would need to double this head count and seriously address the investor base. Can't be done on existing revenues I realise, and given these resources they've done an impressive job in stitching together their existing partnerships.

I wonder what extra Sipcam as SI brings to the table.

[brucie5] 01/12/2018 08:33

Supersonic, thanks for this research. But could you help me understand what in particular we're looking at? I'm a bear of little brain and easily lost.

[supersonico] 30/11/2018 23:31

Eden Research Patent info.

[supersonico] 30/11/2018 22:10

1)Staphylococcus Aureus



Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)

Because antibiotics are widely used in hospitals, hospital staff members commonly carry resistant strains. When people are infected in a health care facility, the bacteria are usually resistant to several types of antibiotics, including almost all antibiotics that are related to penicillin (called beta-lactam antibiotics). Strains of bacteria that are resistant to almost all beta-lactam antibiotics are called methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Methicillin is a type of penicillin.
MRSA strains are common when infection is acquired in a health care facility (called hospital-acquired infection). Some strains of MRSA cause infections that are acquired outside of a health care facility (called community-acquired infection), including mild abscesses and skin infections. The number of these community-acquired infections is increasing.

[brucie5] 30/11/2018 18:32

Good post on MW. Nothing new, but a blast of sense. Sorry can't share, obviously, though anyone with a large holding here could do worse than subscribe as several already do from here. His coverage is very good, and he's been at it for a while.

[investingisatrickygame] 30/11/2018 16:20

Funny how small announcements change sentiment for a few.

Do they understand what they're invested in?

[littlealbatross2] 30/11/2018 16:13

LOL Super.

[supersonico] 30/11/2018 14:47

in short order..

[littlealbatross2] 30/11/2018 14:23

...... and when is Lykele going to appear on the share register!!!!!!!!!!

[brucie5] 30/11/2018 14:18

Good point, but with bod of four they're fairly thinly stretched. Investor relations nonexistent.

[investingisatrickygame] 30/11/2018 13:54

What the share register demonstrates is that when there is unforseen news you are at the mercy of private investors whose strategy, fortitude and pockets are different from institutional shareholders.

Therefore, you play to your audience providing appropriate to your audience, updates, band aids and more. If not, then accept that they have the power to control your share price which could have a direct effect on the Company, how its perceived, access to institutions, cost of funds and much more.

[chrischas] 30/11/2018 12:05

Yes the BOD needs to have more shares.Thats why I said earlier about those future vested share options.They are quite a bit in the future.

[brucie5] 30/11/2018 11:58

About 30 pcent in institutional hands, as opposed to nominee services?

Not an enormous holding by bod either.

Leaves pi's having lion's share.

[brucie5] 30/11/2018 11:46

Ok. Found it.

[investingisatrickygame] 30/11/2018 11:42

Brucie%

It is all on Eden's website, as is a regulatory requirement for all companies

hxxp://www.edenresearch.com/investors/shareholder-information

[brucie5] 30/11/2018 11:39

Is someone able very kindly to post the institutional holdings for this share..? Tia.