Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[boonkoh] 31/3/2021 23:32

European Commission this week released their latest report on pork exports from EU to China. Was expected to fall - 10% in 2021 vs 2020 but now expected to only fall - 2% because ASF is dampening supply in China.Not good news for EAH then, if the rebuilding of herds is slowing down or stopping or even going into reverse. Seems like ASF is being seen as being persistent in China herds this year.

[igoe104] 24/3/2021 16:30

Most probably folks cashing shares in from share accounts so they can switch the cash into a isa, and triggering off a bunch of stop losses. These strange moves happen this time of year. We know full year results are going to be outstanding, and if the dividend is reinstated these should move up significantly.

[cerrito] 24/3/2021 15:08

I wondered if the fall in share price had anything to do with ASFbut could not find any recent news articles on this.

[igoe104] 24/3/2021 14:46

Just purchased over 20k worth, been looking for a retace after reading the latest announcement. Expect this company to go places.

[cerrito] 18/3/2021 19:05

I am finding it difficult to get a handle on how important the ASF outbreak is for EAH.
The Rabobank report is only available for their clients.
The FT had a good story and reports that future hog prices on the Dalian exchange have gone up which would make one think that producers will give their piglets more TLC.
I see that ANP have made the same comment as EAH - namely that the emergence of bigger more modern farms in China makes it easier to do business.

[porky20] 16/3/2021 13:12

The new variants of ASF in China are leading to low level respiratory disease which should benefit EAH sales.

[boonkoh] 15/3/2021 23:35

New ASF outbreak news out of China not looking good. Inflection point coming soon.

[aimingupward2] 10/3/2021 09:58

I would expect that the second leg up in the current recovery in the share price will soon take this comfortably above 400p.

[ifaze] 09/3/2021 16:43

hope you increased your holding Cerito before the latest news came out. Not surprising that div was cut when China, their biggest market, lost over half the pig population because of Swine flu. figures of culling 100s of millions of pigs is quite frightening.
Confident that div will be re introduced soon and I suspect there is plenty more upside to the share price. I will be top slicing on any rises because I hold far too many shares.

[cerrito] 08/3/2021 12:10

Yes v good update and good that US doing well.
It would be good to get an insight as to who benefits from the great business currently in China ie the JV or the EAH companies ex China on the basis that they are supplying the China JV.
Incidentally I took them up on their offer to ask questions before the AGM but have received no reply. Any of you have better luck?

[tradertrev] 08/3/2021 10:40

It's infuriating how many people feel entitled to being spoon-fed :-)

[boonkoh] 08/3/2021 08:55

It's infuriating why they can't give a number, even a range, this late in the financial year.And keep everyone guessing by the very vague "exceeding expectations"

[aimingupward2] 08/3/2021 08:52

Slight disappointment that there was no statement accompanying the recent AGM has certainly been blown away by this morning’s announcement that trading is significantly ahead of expectations and by the mkt response. Excellent.

[aimingupward2] 04/3/2021 15:09

We're both wrong, foxman, me more than you. I got the day wrong - the AGM is today - and you got the time wrong. It was at 2,00 p.m.

The share price has nudged up since. Actually 4 nudges up so far, suggesting that something good was said to the few who listened in.

[foxman14] 04/3/2021 12:10

AGM today at 1.30pm

[aimingupward2] 01/3/2021 12:32

AGM tomorrow. I'm hoping there might be a positive statement accompanying it.

[cerrito] 24/2/2021 09:35

I have been going through both the recently published AR and the interims to see if I should increase my holding.
I think I will stay where I am for now but would appreciate comments from you all as to where I have misunderstood.
One big reason for me not buying more is I am having difficulty in understanding the company and one reason for that is that they do not appear to bother with IR for their retail investors. I take the point that it appears unlikely that they will need to do a fund raise in the immediate future and that those holding over 3% have a combined 65% share holding-ie retail investors are less important than in some other companies. That said they could have been more welcoming in their AGM like for example CWR and ITM or at the very least have done an Investor Meets Company type operation.
I should add that the Finances seem better managed than in the past. It was surprising to read n page 126 of the AR that over an extended period an ex Director had helped herself to £300k+ without it being picked by internal or external auditors. Also, a bit disorientating to see that in the two years to March 2020 they paid out £18m in dividends and then we read in the latest interims they had to cut back on their R&D programme as they had insufficient cash. Suggests that perhaps a,lack, in the past, of long term strategic financial planning.
What is welcome that there is now more transparency as to where the cash is i.e., China or non China than we seem to have had in the past. It is of course great that consolidated net cash grew from £9.8m at end March 2020 to £12.9m at end September 2020. However, that was due to cash balances of the Chinese company growing from £5.3m to £9.7m and cash balances ex China decreasing from £4.5m to £3.2m. The interims recognize that this cash balance in China-51% owned by EAH- gets transferred by dividends, as one would expect. It would be interesting to know when the next dividend will be paid. My reading of Pages 105/7 of the AR is that EAH would have got £1.6m and £0.97m in FY 2018/19 and 19/20 respectively…but please check that. Let’s hope that this next dividend is going to be higher. My reading of page 106 of the AR which shows a decline in 2020 over 2019 in plant and equipment of the Chinese JV is that the new factory in China is not owned by the JV but rather one assumes by a 100% owned EAH company…is that how you understand it? Begs the question to me is how they realize their factory investment in pounds sterling.
All in all, I can well understand why they are not paying a dividend and I go on the basis that any dividend for this FY will be token. I note that the overdraft facility reported on Page 115 of the AR was new. I admit I am surprised that this facility repayable on demand is secured with what would appear to be a highish margin of 1.8%. All seems rather odd to me and suggests that the bank not all that comfortable. Page 116 tells us that the weighted average incremental borrowing rate for lease finance is a, to me, high 7.1%,
I was interested to read page 87 of the AR with its good table of in which geographic markets they make their Ebitda.
Interesting to see that in the year to 3/20 S and SE Asia far more profitable than China and Japan as regards adjusted ebitda to revenue from external customers and total assets but guess the picture will be different this FY

[aimingupward2] 05/2/2021 10:15

Well, there’s certainly strong buying again this morning and next to nothing being sold.

[city chappy] 04/2/2021 23:13

500p in sight.

[1aconic] 04/2/2021 20:39

I'm still going through things but at current understanding it seems a lot of EPS fall/restatement is due to the need to charge early stage R&D to the P&L rather than capitalising it. If you reverse that you get an adjusted EPS of 16.15p for 2020 and 19.37 for 2019. Doing similar for ROCE makes that more realistic too. Obviously it's not necessarily ideal just to strip it all out but it does help see what's going on. Still need to go through a lot more but given ASF was raging through that period, it's not looking all that bad at all. Fingers crossed all this hefty R&D investment delivers some cracking new products too.

[aimingupward2] 04/2/2021 12:45

41000 shares just bought - somebody's keen. They're not alone though, by a long way.
High volume of, mainly, purchases today.

[tradertrev] 04/2/2021 09:26

Cerrito have you requested Investormeetcompany to approach the company? The more of us that do must increase the chances of it happening.

[1aconic] 04/2/2021 09:25

The debt jumped out at me too - it's in current liability though so isn't that they've taken on any long terms loans. That would have been a little bizarre given how cash generative it is. Was hoping that there may be an investor call too, particularly in light of the delays, etc. R&D was still a mighty 10% of revenue despite the caution when covid broke. The comments about large chunks of that having to be charged immediately to the P&L due to being early stage stand out too. That means EPS and ROCE need quite significant upwards adjustment to be put in true context. My dilemma if it re-rates again when FY21 ends in March is the quite hefty weighting it could start to have in my portfolio!

[aimingupward2] 04/2/2021 09:22

Encouraging news this morning and a really good forward outlook. Even after the opening rise in the sp, there’s still plenty more to go for.