Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 06/3/2017 20:44

Re meeting demand, Au, the annual report last July spoke of 'an increase in strategic stock holding', so perhaps that answers that - partly at least.

I look forward to you triggering the start of a price rise in April!

[audigger] 06/3/2017 20:06

Well we're flat lining at the moment which is fine. Everything points towards another record breaking set of financials. One challenge they may face is to be able to manufacture enough to meet demand as demand ramps up. There's no indication that they can't, so increased sales combined with GBP weakness against the dollar all bodes well. They will also continue to get more product approvals/authorisations most of which will be on the back of investment already made in generating the data required to support approval in the EU and USA. If they can improve margins through lower cost of manufacture, reduced distribution costs or increased price, then the upside will be even higher. I will add on the first day of the next tax year!

[aimingupward2] 06/3/2017 10:55

Nice to know that, Hydrus. I suspect that 'soaring' is hyperbole but, anyway, what is sure is that the legislative climate increasingly favours Aivlosin and it's sales are rising very nicely.

I note that Animal Care Group,(ANCR), which has a far less impressive profits growth record than EAH, has risen over 30% in the last 3 weeks (for no particular reason?) and has now exactly the same net growth over the past 3 years as EAH does ( you can compare graphs on the iii site).

This all adds to my thoughts that EAH will be due it's own price surge before too long, after a 6 month pause.

[hydrus] 03/3/2017 12:58

Mentioned in last weeks IC. Commentary includes that demand for Aivlosin is soaring because of its low dosage rate and ability to move quickly through animal's system

[aimingupward2] 15/2/2017 22:50

Well, you might be fortunate and I wish you the best of luck. I can wait an extra week or two for 'take off' and certainly don't expect to be even 'top slicing' for quite some while as I think there is still a lot of long term potential here.

[audigger] 15/2/2017 22:09

I think we can expect some more regulatory approvals as we head towards May and, you never know, perhaps an update indicating results ahead of expectations. I need to wait until next tax year to add so I hope the price action is later rather than sooner!

[aimingupward2] 15/2/2017 20:00

Actually, looking back at the 1 year chart on the iii site, I realise that the sharp uplift in the share price started earlier than I was saying, namely in late March, ahead of the year-end trading statement. If it's the same this year, and it might well be given the expectations of a major advance in profits and eps, then it's not long to wait!

[aimingupward2] 20/1/2017 09:49

The price action looks like it will be a repeat of last year, I.e. little overall movement until late April/ early May, then a big rise in anticipation of and following excellent annual results. There could be little price drops on the way; if so they should be seen as top up opportunities.

[aimingupward2] 12/1/2017 17:21

It's encouraging, too, to read today that one (or more?) institutions are buying in at this price, clearly in the confident belief that there's more progress to come.

[audigger] 09/1/2017 20:55

Yet more opportunity for revenue growth. Pound still weak against the dollar so we should see continued gains on dollar sales. And there are many more approvals to come. Should all translate in to the share price pushing towards 600 by May.

[topvest] 09/1/2017 08:28

Yes, and another big market. Looking good.

[aimingupward2] 09/1/2017 08:19

Another marketing approval this morning (Mexico) with 'numerous others' to follow!

[nfs] 17/12/2016 13:11

AgreedThanks

[aimingupward2] 16/12/2016 22:16

Welcome to the discussion, nfs. Hopefully you will have read back over past posts and have a good appreciation of the strengths of the company. EDIT -
I've just realised that you said earlier that you had!

I don't think you should be concerned about short term price movements, or lack of them. Just be prepared to be reasonably patient. The company is in an increasingly profitable growth phase, paying out increasing dividends, and is, as Au says, in a very secure position as far as competitors are concerned. It may well be sold out to a bidder in due course at a price well above today's.

[nfs] 16/12/2016 20:51

A new investor from a few weeks ago. Disappointing that the share price didn't go up post results but it's been roaring up in the last 18 months, so I have to accept that I need to wait and watch the company performance improve each reporting period and trust the share price will follow

[aimingupward2] 16/12/2016 13:12

Have just seen your post, Au, and would like to thank for it and the reassurance it gives.

I came to the board thinking I might post a comment along the lines that the interims haven't done anything for the share price (yet anyway) and there you were having said just that!

Never mind. The strong upward trend, which has been going for over 18 months, is clearly still intact.

[audigger] 15/12/2016 16:00

Well the interims didn't set the share price on fore; priced in perhaps...

On a different note, I looked in to the situation regarding patent protection, IP and the ability for Eco to defend any future pressure from generics. This was to address a lingering concern I had about the longevity of Aivlosin and therefore how well protected Eco's ability to sell it at a premium would be in future. The good news is it is very well protected on a number of levels such that we can probably be confident that we have at least 15 years before there could be serious generic pressure eroding margins. Aivlosin is also incredibly difficult to synthesise greatly reducing the likelihood of competition from cheap copies. All-in-all this gives me confidence that so long as efficacy is maintained, there will continue to be significant growth in sales and increased revenue for many years to come.

[aimingupward2] 12/12/2016 13:01

Peel Hunt target price now 575p.

Applying the same first half/second half ratios as last year and rembering that the drop in sterling applied only from late June it seems that the full year should see eps close to 16p. Fab' if it happens.

[nfs] 12/12/2016 10:23

I note a small comment about tariff free trade in the announcement. Looking ahead to trump/brexit impact?

[topvest] 12/12/2016 08:47

Yes, fantastic results.

[aimingupward2] 12/12/2016 08:07

Yes, all round but especially eps up 61% and dividend up 32%.

[audigger] 12/12/2016 07:55

Impressive interims.

[aimingupward2] 08/12/2016 21:54

I really appreciate the trouble you have taken in your reply, Au. Thank you.

We'll exchange thoughts after the interims are out, no doubt - next week it now seems.