Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 07/12/2016 09:45

Thank you very much, Au, for taking the trouble to explain all that.

Betting in that way doesn't appeal to me. I much prefer to invest in a company.

Nevertheless, as I say, I do appreciate having a better understanding of how it works.

I think a target of at least 600p by next June is very reasonable and so you should do
well.

[audigger] 07/12/2016 08:31

Now there's a question! Basically you bet an amount on every 1 pence (referred to as a 1 point) movement in the share price. You can bet on the price increasing (going long) or decreasing (going short). At the point at which you open the bet you incur a cost which is the spread in the share price. For EAH when I took out my bet this spread was 498 (sell price)-528 (buy price). Obviously I bet on an increase in share price so I "bought" at 528. This means I immediately incur a loss as the value of my bet is set at the sell price. Say I bet £20 per point on opening my bet the cost of the spread means I'm instantly £20 x 30 (the spread) down = £600. I need the sale price to increase above 528 to be in profit. Effectively a £20 bet gives you the same exposure as owning 2000 shares. To place the bet you need to stump up a deposit/margin which for a £20 bet is about £1800. This is considerably cheaper than what it would cost to buy 2000 shares at £5 (so-called leverage). The downside however, is that you can quite easily loose all your money if the price moves against you. You can manage this risk by setting a stop-loss; a price at which the bet is closed if it moves against you. My expectation is that by June 2017 the share price should be at least £1 higher than it is today (that's no more than a judgement call!) so if that happens with the £20 bet example, the profit is £2000. You can bet any amount from 50p to thousands of pounds. The higher the bet the higher your initial outlay. Its not for the faint-hearted and I would never bet with more than I could afford to loose because it can all disappear in an instant (unlike owning the shares where there is also the opportunity to hold out for a recovery.

[aimingupward2] 06/12/2016 22:01

How does this work please? What price is anticipated for June 17 (a particular day in June presumably)? Do you pick a price and the odds are based on that? What multiple of the amount bet would be paid out in the event the said price (mid price, bid or offer?) is reached or exceeded?

Anyway, best of luck.

[audigger] 06/12/2016 17:58

Well another day and no interims. Must be tomorrow! I was going to buy more of these but decided to have a spread bet instead in order to leverage what little cash I have at the moment. Have bet on the June 2017 price on the basis that this covers potential upside from the imminent interims and also the finals in May 17. All the pointers are good in terms of sales growth and the constant stream of new approvals in sizeable markets indicates that this growth should continue for several years to come. The icing on the cake would be a deal that sees the company bought at a significant premium to the current value. If that happens whilst my bet is open, I'll be a happy bunny!

[audigger] 05/12/2016 21:45

More good news. Brazil is a huge market so more sales growth to come. Must admit I expected an RNS this am but not this one! Hopefully the interims will reflect more significant upside from increased sales and currency gains.

[waldron] 05/12/2016 09:19

ECO RECEIVES BRAZILIAN MARKETING AUTHORISATION FOR AIVLOSIN® WATER SOLUBLE GRANULES FOR SWINE

[aimingupward2] 05/12/2016 07:39

Another regulatory approval for Aivlosin this morning - this time in Brazil.

Peter Lawrence, Chairman of ECO, commented "This approval from the Brazilian MAPA is very important in the development of Aivlosin for swine globally. Brazil is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of pork and this new formulation will enhance our ability to offer an expanded range of valuable therapeutic tools to swine producers for both the domestic and export markets."

Excellent. Interims due possibly later this week.

[ltinvestor] 30/11/2016 10:50

Due interims around second week December.Should be very good.

[nfs] 18/11/2016 10:19

Used some of my avesco gains to join in hereThanks for the responses. I have indeed read the older posts, good stuff

[audigger] 17/11/2016 11:53

There were a couple of notes issued in May/June of this year which I posted suggesting a target of at least 800p and I have a vague recollection of one in the 1000-1300 range. As I've said before, this kind of business model is tricky to value as they have invested heavily in Aivlosin and are now reaping the rewards. From what we've heard there are lots more registrations to come and there are good prospects for existing registrations to deliver increased sales. If the regulatory environment also dictates that future products must have a similar profile with respect to low residues, market share may increase much more. So I see potential for significant upside especially if they can charge a premium and manufacture and distribute at low cost. I won't pluck numbers out of the air but any takeout would have to be at a significant premium to today's SP

[aimingupward2] 17/11/2016 11:28

Could be. Could well be. And it might only take, say, 3 years. It is very probable that profits will double over that time, i.e. a growth rate of near 25% per year. Very doable I would now think. Even if a bit longer, still a good rate of return.

[nfs] 17/11/2016 11:23

I think £10 might be a target in managements' heads

[aimingupward2] 17/11/2016 10:28

nfs, I wrote this back in May:

"If I were Peter Lawrence, I think I would be saying to myself that when I do retire and sell some,or all, of my shares I will want to get very much more for them than I could probably have got 14 years ago. So, realising this, I now think that £5 is too modest a target and that £6, 7, or even 8+ is within the realms of possibility, despite the very high p.e implied." P/E is v. probably not a a good way to value a company like EAH anyway.

If you've not already done so, it would be worth your while to read back over the posts for, say the last six months or so. The barriers to entry here are enormous, the value to a larger company with it's own sales forces, and hence higher margins, is very attractive and the whole climate of minimising antibiotic usage is favourable for Aivlosin - the main, but not only, important company product.

The interim report, due in a few weeks time should make v. encouraging reading.

[nfs] 17/11/2016 09:59

What do people think of the recent sales by PL and the view held by some of a take out here being likely?I really like this company but have not bought in,but sorely tempted. I see earnings of around 14-15p for y/e march 2017,maybe more ,boosted by fx translation benefits and that's after the amortisation of investments in the product. I sense a long way to go yet.Rating looks high but the high moat,fast earnings growth now coming through after all that investment and hard work,and nature of what they do does make this seem like a worthwhile investment. Well done to all holdersAU digger was postulating £5 a share about 18months ago,very wise. What are the views of investors now?

[audigger] 15/11/2016 22:46

Seems like the odd 20p daily swing is the norm for EAH these days. Wasn't long ago when such a move was in response to major news flow. I guess my brain still hasn't adapted to the fact this is now 4-500p instead of 1-200p. Hopefully next financial update will push us to 600!

[aimingupward2] 19/10/2016 13:30

We'll put, thank you very much, Au. More to look forward to, clearly.

Tejo, on the iii board, says "The regulatory approval for Aivlosinby the Thai authorities,is, in my view, of great sigtnificance because it should open up the whole Asian market. This is because Thailand is a top poultry producer and their approval will very likely lead to approval in most, if not all, Asian countries."

Remember my post 666 back in early August. They're undertaking some property development as well. Very enterprising!

[audigger] 19/10/2016 13:06

Some countries (and I'm not entirely sure if Thailand is one of them) will use the EU approval as a basis for approving the product in their country. They rely on the fact that the data requirements and evaluation process in Europe is extremely thorough such that, if the EU approve it, they will be very likely to approve it. Thus, rather than a full in-depth evaluation over a number of years (as per the EU), the approval is more of an administrative process. Its a form of mutual recognition and often exists between OECD and non-OECD countries. I think there are also mutual recognition agreements in place between other Asian countries (ASEAN - Association of South East Asian Nations) so the approval in Thailand may help expedite other approvals in the region

[aimingupward2] 19/10/2016 10:14

Not quite sure what you are saying, Au. Do you mean that once a European approval is given, other jurisdictions/authorities are less likely to scrutinise an application very thoroughly and more like to accept a new registration? Or rather that, once the work of drawing up the paperwork for the first submission is done, it neels very little extra effort to submit it to other countries/markets?

Anyway, the fact that " ECO has begun the process of submitting the Aivlosin® regulatory files for the treatment of layers in numerous other key egg producing markets" means we can expect a continuing flow of encouraging news in due course.

[audigger] 19/10/2016 10:02

Today's news is a good example of how you can leverage the EU registration in other countries. Its good to hear that more egg laying registrations are to come

[audigger] 17/10/2016 15:59

Another interesting jump today. As Hydrus notes, the falling pound will only enhance an already rapidly improving bottom line

[hydrus] 12/10/2016 11:58

Exchange rate got to be a big plus here considering the invoice pretty much all their revenue in dollars

[hydrus] 01/10/2016 16:41

I have heard of them but bit too blue sky for me, I mainly focus on profitable companies

[aimingupward2] 01/10/2016 11:30

I reckon Nanoco (NANO) ought to be on that list. Do you know them Hydro? They're a world leading nanotechnology company.

I now see that the Telegraph today also talks of 'a huge £120 million govt cash injection' going into research in artificial intelligence and in nanotechnology.