Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[josephmanna] 31/10/2017 07:31

As expected.

Only used 2.4m of its own cash in 12 months hence why now, any cash they raise is to grow the business not just to stand still and support cash flow.

The revenue supports the business, so its on wards and upwards.

Plenty of cash, plenty revenue, growing and now its sustainable, its got a huge opportunity.

[silkstag] 30/10/2017 19:42

EPO fundraising forecasts (serially grossly inflated):

1) While fund raising July-Sept 2014 EPO forecast FY15 profit +£0.5m and FY16 profit +£7.5m. In Feb 2015 EPO forecast FY17 +£19.8m profit, on £55m turnover.

2) Fy15 actual loss -£8.7m i.e. -£9.2m below fundraising forecast.

3) FY16 actual loss -£8.2m i.e. -£15.7m below fundraising forecast.

4) FY17 actual loss recently apparently downgraded to -£9.5m i.e. -£29.3m below forecast. I assumed it would be an earnings miss in range £25-30m.

5) FY17 turnover is c£30.3m i.e. -£24.7m below Feb 2015 forecast.

6) October 2017 fundraising forecast (reaching 5.75 years forward):
EPO false forecast FY23: 80m trans x £2.75 = £220m turnover and EBITDA £77m.
SS honest forecast FY23: 40m trans x £1.12 = £45m turnover and EBITDA -£41m.

£175m (80%) turnover miss and £118m (153%) EBITDA miss [=175m x65% + 45m x10%].

7) Need another disaster funding by October 2019. Massive dilution and huge down round. 625m shares @4p to raise £25m; 1 for 10 consolidation (like 1 for 7 in 2005). Market cap post 2019 funding = £50m [1.25bn shares @4p]. That will be plenty given the spiralling losses.

8) Profligate management, led by a virgin CEO, and bulls have forgotten EPO is only a high volume admin processing business; in a tech-enabled market with sliding prices. Bloated £26m city overheads just got turned to turbo-bloat £33m. Add that to sliding revenue per transaction, is a recipe for disaster funding @4p at brink of Administration in 2019.

MANDATORY SELL as an investor at 19.25p or anywhere near
all imho. dyor

[josephmanna] 30/10/2017 18:36

Chadders, Nimrod, CM et all.

Amazon started in 1994.
They didn't make a profit until 2001. That's 7 years later.
Amazon didn't account for a profit for the first five years, so 1999 but they chnaged this to later.
When they did make a profit on a billion dollars turnover, they made 5 million dollars, that's it.

Vision

They decided to take big bets, bold steps to new ideas and market
They accepted failures and said they would take advantage of market opportunities
If silkstag was around she would have said that's a failed business.

They were clear, profit was not their focus and made clear, they were to target market opportunities to grow the business. It was said you need to be clear what type of investor you are. Buffet is the man who stated this. If you want companies with profits, you go elsewhere, otherwise you invest in growth.

Though epo is not an amazon, they are taking bold steps, NOT investing the whole company on the market opportunities, but leveraging strong revenue, solid recurring revenue back into the company. You may not like it, but they are doing this to take those market opportunities BIG TIME. Its as simple as that.

Follow SS advice and you would have sold amazon shares in 1999 when they LIED in her eyes. They changed their view, as one must do in this changing market and world. Like SS, the doomsters said Amazon would go bust.

Open your eyes, not all companies focus on profit, they focus on growth ad growth is what is important right now to ensure epo get the bigger benefits in the future.

Remember you build for the future not for the past and SS is a past doom gloomer.

[chadders] 30/10/2017 16:00

Can anyone tell me if the troll has identified the source of the June 2016 "shareholders bulletin?

I think it fabricated it itself.

[chadders] 30/10/2017 15:57

For those who may be new to this board, the troll is a serial liar, a fabricator of false news and a compulsive scaremonger. Dyor you don't have to dig too deep.

[silkstag] 30/10/2017 09:57

JM, your post 13652 represents to the BB that EPO "hit" its forecast turnover Fy17. I hope you are wearing asbestos y-fronts. As my post 13638 already reminded you:

March 2015 EPO forecast fy17 £55m turnover and +£19.8m profit.

You now say that after the 20p round closed, N+1's latest downgrade was to expect £30.3m turnover and -£9.5m loss. Let's summarise forecast v likely actual:

Turnover: f£55m v a£30m. Miss -£25m
Earnings: f£20m v a-£10m. Miss -£30m.

JM calls that a "hit". Hmmm.

Good luck with the upcoming "hits" for fy18 and fy19 then another disaster funding round in October 2019 of 600m shares @4p; and 1 for 10 share consolidation (like 1 for 7 in 2005).
MANDATORY SELL.
All imho. Dyor

[josephmanna] 29/10/2017 15:25

True nimrod,

Since 1999 you could have invested in Asos at 80p and made millions say, but no point thinking like that.

Earthport was ahead of its time back then. It had the wallet, no one wanted it and if they did, it was for peanuts.

Way back in 2003, they talked about paying for news on the go, 10p, no one wanted it.

It could be said each and every time someone new came in, it was a new start.

Since 2008/10 the focus has been the banking network. They've chosen to go for big big clients and these take longer.

The results are already baked open. We know them.

Though its taken from 2010 to get here, Hank in my view has shaped earthport for the best chance. Earthports revenue from 1999 to 2009 or so, I think never increased, remained flat, fell and never went above a million.

Hank took over from that and now revenue for FY18 is moving to 40m from 30m.

I believe they now have a solid foundation after proving their platform to gain more market share on the banking, E-Commerce sector.

It's growing and now they need to scale. They are not going backwards flat or failed, they are going up.

Interims will show this. The fact they are now able to become self sustaining is key. They have 3.5m cash a month coming in plus £35m. It's not worthless.

Two year target is 54m revenue, 3 year 71m.

They have hit, something Silkstag kindly ignored their revenue targets. Yes they have losses but that's a fact at the moment in growing the business.

Overall, If they manage costs right, scale right, they will finally make it big. Simple as that. This is the closest they've ever been. Yes there are challenges, of course, that exists everywhere, but they are making all the right noises now.


Silkstag shouts rubbish. Sure, its not perfect, but its not doom and gloom as she says. Total fabrication and lies are posted by Silkstag.

She says they break aim rules yet as she said recently, there's no merit if she's posting it on here. This means they've not broken any rules and if she complained, they went no where.

Silkstag thinks they are worth 4p, 40m revenue company. Rubbish. She's been saying this for 3/4 years, 4p. Maybe one day if they fail but not to suit her investment agenda.

I would not want Silkstag to be a ceo whom narrowed mind attitude would be worse. She's a liability.

[nimrod22] 28/10/2017 17:28

Final results on Tuesday 31st October, share price will take off one direction or the other. Its been fairly static over the last year for an AIM share. It would have been simpler and more profitable to have stayed in uneventful comparatively risk free shares in the US such as Microsoft, Amazon, and many others for a substantial gain. In the UK you could confidently be in ULVR for year-in, year-out gains for the last 20 years and have had a good nights sleep. I think it will be a bit of a make or break for many who are in EPO.

[josephmanna] 28/10/2017 08:24

Gogetter,

I know but nothing wrong in giving empathy. So I'm giving it whether you like it or not.

Point understood though. Your historical view is accepted, but times change

[gogetter3] 27/10/2017 23:09

Hi josephmanna - Unfortunately too big to remove so I have to live with it. Thanks for asking. I didn't want sympathy, it just puts things into perspective.

[josephmanna] 27/10/2017 21:41

Gogetter, hope the tumour has gone.

[gogetter3] 27/10/2017 18:58

chadders - when you are told you have a brain tumour it puts all this into perspective, so yes I am well over it and I not kidding myself. But you didn't answer the question about the stock half it's former value in a short space of time. That does not sound like market confidence to me.

[chadders] 27/10/2017 16:59

gogetter3, you may kid yourself that you are over it but trust me, you clearly are not. You might want to stop looking backwards and start to look forwards. Absolutely no advice intended.

[gogetter3] 27/10/2017 16:27

Talk about catch a falling knife! If as many of you say this is a successful company I should be interested to hear your interpretation of a failing business.
I am not a troll but any business which trades for 20 years with little hope of making a profit with huge overheads losing at least £140m in the process, beats me.

I could not care less if you make or lose your cash, it doesn't bother me, but how you can be taken in by this bunch of no hopers astounds me.
Ah well it takes all sorts as they say.

And by the way Chadders, I got over it a long time ago, and I am so pleased you are making money day trading this stock. Oh and you didn't explain why the stock which was trading at between 40-50p is now only 19p.

[josephmanna] 27/10/2017 14:27

Silkstag,

what do you think the ACTUAL REVENUE and LOSS IS FOR FY17?

I am not interested in lies, retro itsd 900 million because of changed forecasts. Its a simple question, so to avoid any doubt on your estimates.

themirror is not N+1. You are aware of the report and have seen the numbers, I know you have, yet you pretend to be naive to suit your agenda. It states 30.3m and a loss of -9.5m. The question is simple, do you think the loss will be more than -9.5m?

[silkstag] 27/10/2017 14:10

My post 13581 on forecasts includes:

"October 2017 (reaching 5.75 years forward):
EPO false forecast FY23: 80m trans x £2.75 = £220m turnover and EBITDA £77m.
SS honest forecast FY23: 40m trans x £1.12 = £45m turnover and EBITDA -£41m.

£175m (80%) turnover miss and £118m (153%) EBITDA miss [=175m x65% + 45m x10%].

Need another disaster funding by October 2019. Massive dilution and downgrade".
All imho. Dyor

[silkstag] 27/10/2017 13:57

Jailbird,
1) While fund raising July-Sept 2014 EPO forecast FY15 profit +£0.5m and FY16 profit +£7.5m. In Feb 2015 EPO forecast FY17 +£19.8m profit, on £55m turnover.

2) Fy15 actual was a loss -£8.7m i.e. -£9.2m below fundraising forecast.

3) FY16 actual was a loss -£8.2m i.e. -£15.7m below fundraising forecast.

4) FY17 actual is a loss, themirror says N+1 downgraded, ATER the 20p placing, to -£9.5m i.e. -£29.3m below forecast. I assumed it would be an earnings miss in range £25-30m.

5) FY17 turnover is c£30.3m i.e. -£24.7m below Feb 2015 forecast.

6) The market should reject the July-Oct 2017 fundraising forecast of FY23 huge profit, as wildly inflated. I have shown how the transaction price slide travellator can flip FY23 to a -£40m loss. So massive rescue funds will be needed in 2 years.

7) These facts and views are part of why I expect EPO to drift toward administration and a massive share price slide toward 4p over the next 2 years.

Please can readers check them carefully, post if they feel I have made any arithmetic errors.
MANDATORY SELL.
all imho. dyor

[josephmanna] 27/10/2017 13:49

Ah S you've gone a step too far now adding M to my name. Ok, SS lol.

What loss are you wanting earthport to admit?

Yes Op own 18.2% so you were a plonker silly boy.