Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[themirror] 16/10/2017 22:16

That's all well and good silkstag, but you keep pointing the past.

You suggest a change in strategy is a lie. You chose to discount future because if past. That's ignorant.

You say expect a multi million loss and no profit. Not sure what you're reading, but its been stated long ago there would not be a profit and re-communicated middle of this year. So dress it up as something new. They gave said time and time again they are using money to grow. You ignore this. That's strange.

Anyway, like you say:

Let's assume they do hit their revenue target, let's assume they hit what's in the brokers report, do you in principle think that's good, if not why.

Put it another way, what's your definition of Epo being successful.

Is it revenue growth
Is it profit alone

Basically if you took over Epo right now, how would you grow the business, its revenue and profit.

You may as well provide metrics for the next five years.

How would you increase the value of epo?

[silkstag] 16/10/2017 21:01

1) TM "4 months in and they have a pretty clear picture of what's happening"
SS - Irrelevant as management dishonesty prevails
EPO were fundraising so they inflate forecasts to dupe investors.

2) TM "they hit the past two years revenue targets"
SS - Misleading for FY17. False disasters for FY16 and FY15.

Aug 2016 forecast FY17 £30.7m turnover and loss -£3.8m. 1% miss with £30.3m actual turnover is immaterial. But expect huge multi-million miss on profit.

July 2015 forecast FY16 £35m turnover and profit +£6.6m. 35% miss with £22.8m actual turnover is lousy. Actual loss -£8.2m was a mind-blowing £14.8m miss on profit.

Sept 2014 forecast FY15 £20m turnover and profit +£0.5m. 3.5% miss with £19.3 actual turnover is OK. Actual loss -£8.7m was a vile £9.2m miss on profit.

3) TM "they will aim to hit the next three years targets"
SS - No. Those numbers were inflated to dupe investors.

4) TM "they have demand and growing business" They forecast average price and loss:
FY18: £2.35. Loss -£17.1m
FY19: £2.23. Loss -£4.2m

SS - Misleading and false. EPO lowball to secure loss-making contracts. Average price per transaction is crashing and sliding as a result. FY16 crashed -35%. FY17 slid a further -15%. FY18 and FY19 will slide far below management lies to duped 20p investors.
FY18 and FY19 average price will be lower and the FY19 loss will miss by over £10m, forcing further disaster fundraising.

5) TM "they have just done the revisions for FY17, so we now the results already ... just published a -9.5m loss".
SS - By 'published' you mean 3.5 months after year-end they admit to brokers that FY17 made a -£9.5m loss. They forecast -£3.8m loss so the market will hate -£9.5m. And it may be worse due to reversal of some of the unrealised fx gains from fY16. The published loss could be worse than -£10m.

EPO serially crashes far below fundraising forecasts. Hank Scuberoi, who holed the Earthtanic in FY16 with lowballing, has been doing this every year since he took charge in spring 2010.

Riddle me this: Why did Scuberoi stop issuing grossly inflated crooked forecasts in the Sept/Oct 2017 fundraising, having done that every other time for 7 years in a row? Did he suddenly become honest? Remorseful? Want to dilute his own huge options and shares as much as possible by being kind to new 2017 investors? No. They are the same old drivel. FY18 and FY19 will report the largest losses in EPO dire history and more funding will be needed. Massive downround again.

All imho. dyor

[themirror] 16/10/2017 18:24

Silkstag,

It seems you are misreading the statement. No problems though.

You are saying you think they are wrong for FY18. That's fine too. We will have to wait for the results next year won't we. In the meantime your guessing is just that. No point dwelling on it and looking back to FY14, FY15, FY16.
On the other hand you are making the assumption they will downgrade, an assumption past performance is a measure of future performance. That's never right to do. That's like saying, you are wrong ad always wrong or right and always right. Not reality though.

Some points you have ignored though:
1) 4 months in and they have a pretty clear picture of what's happening
2) They hit the past two years revenue targets in FY15, FY16.
3) They will aim to hit the next three years targets - 40, 54, 71m.
4) They have demand and a growing business
5) They have just done the revisions for FY17 which confirm what is expected in the results. I see you don't list FY17 as downgrade.
6) Another point when they invested in 2014, revenue was 4 million in 2014. This money was used to grow the business. If they had not managed tro grow the business, focus on it strengths, sure, you would be right, however since then, they have matured, become a global player and pushed revenue to over 30 million. That's not a failed strategy. It's a sustainable one.

Like any business, it can be difficult to forecast if business demand is volatile. Fortunately for earthport, they have targeted solid businesses, top banks, big players for huge volumes and once they start, they will increase the flow.

They are ramping volume through the platform as we speak. These same clients want to ramp more volume through the system, not less. Its pathetic you think as you do.

So important to earthport, they are scaling the system 10 times.

You suggested investors were duped when they invested recently. How can that be?
They saw the circular, the reasons why and the brokers note, which shows the losses for the next two or so years. It's all clear.

Investors would have seen the circular, they would have also seen the brokers note and the revised FY17 numbers which shows a loss of -9.5 million for FY17 and a loss of 17 million for FY18.

Thats no surprise as its been stated. Please note, earthport have made adjustments for FY18, which touches on the investments they will be doing.

These are specific and focused, which is why you have seen FX news today to enhance their offering in FX, leveraging additional automating within their core platform.

If that means the BH system is now defunc, so what. They've got their money back and like any system one builds Silkstag, it never lasts a life time, max 3/5 years.

What kind of CEO would you be. Invest once and hope all will be fine. DOH!

You invest into the offering and keep adapting. This is the purpose.

Have you seen these figures? I know you like creating a drama, but you now know, investors invested knowing the losses were to be -9.5 million FY17 and -17 million for FY18.

So drama over, it's know Silkstag.

Do you you really think FY17 will differ much from the figures they have just published a -9.5m loss?

They are saying a -9.5 loss, so its not a surprise. I'd not want you to draw up a story saying OMG its a surprise when its not.

Have you seen the predicted loss of -9.5m?

What you seen unable to say is this:

If earthport DID hit their next 3/4 year target, forget the past Silkstag, is if they did, if they did, get it, if they did, do you think that is a good turnaround, from 4 million revenue in 2013 to 70 million.

You seem unable to accept any positive news for earthport, that seems to suggest you are never going to be interested in earthport doing well, never interested in them doing anything in the future. This implies you'll look for anything to slag the company off. This means you have confirmed you are not open to anyone elses view in any discussion because you are unable to accept anything but failure for earthport.

That's pure bitterness.

In the meantime, as I said, I work in the industry, you don't and can voucher earthport are doing well, making serious progress, gaining serious volume and you my dear friend will continue looking pathetic at the expenses of finding some nugget of "I told you so" once in a blue moon.

Don't forget, there is a predicted thumping loss of -9.5m and -17m for the next two years. It’s all known so drama gone before you’ve even started.

I’m off to watch them in Toronto, I’ll say hello for you. Don’t forget, you can still say sorry, sorry as you were wrong as a BULL and wrong as a BEAR. Fancy that.

[silkstag] 16/10/2017 17:10

Themirror, you said it and I already alerted the text in post 13500:
"themirror post 13496 includes "we are 4 months into the year now and they have not made any further adjustments. They must be very confident they are going to hit 40m revenue at an average £2.35" and "You just can’t make those numbers up, 16.51m transactions. They are very accurate".
Your text is beyond naïve (if you believe it).

[themirror] 16/10/2017 16:30

Silkstag,

FY15/FY16.

You said

Themirror, you assert that because EPO management have not downgraded before the £25m funding round that proves they are on track for fy18.

I asked you where did I say that.


We are talking about FY18.

Whey does "Anyway" come into this now. Its not an Anyway when you are asked a question after suggesting I said something when I hadn't.

So, where did I assert that statement.

[silkstag] 16/10/2017 15:51

Was the 18 September 2014 £26.6m fundraising forecast of FY15 £0.5m profit and FY16 £7.5m profit "close"?
FY15 actual was -£8.7m loss. FY16 actual was -£8.2m loss.
EPO missed its 2014 fundraising profit forecasts by £9.2m and £15.7m.

So, no, EPO's FY18 and FY19 actual results will not be "close" to EPO's Sept/Oct 2017 fundraising forecasts. They never have done in the past.

H1FY15 actual was a disaster loss of -£5.3m. Q) How did EPO not know that scale of loss was coming, when they forecast £0.5m profit for FY15, 2.5 months into the year? A) They issued grossly inflated forecasts to dupe investors.

EPO did not downgrade the dirty fund-raising forecast until the interims in March 2015. Crooks in breach of AiM rules?

Anyway, if posters or readers wish to (pretend to) believe EPO management's latest forecasts then that is up to them. I assume they are, like always before, grossly inflated and Scuberoi took the 25% dilution now @20p as turnover growth declined in H2FY17 to 19% and he feared H1FY18 was going to be a dog, just like H1FY15. So he took the cash before his numbers crashed and he would not be able to raise the cash above 10p.

all imho. dyor

[themirror] 16/10/2017 15:06

Silkstag

What statement suggests I asserted EPO management have not downgraded before the £25m funding round that proves they are not on track for fy18?

EarthportFX (was called Baydonhill) is making epo money and profit, this is simple an extension of their service. Simple as that. EPO get to keep the FX profits not lose it to a provider. This as you can see is all about leveraging an IT offering. It it allows them to scale, then why not. EPO FX can in the meantime continue to service existing clients, make money as has been seen 12m, whilst as epo grows they can leverage alternatives too. You can do both you know, its not just black and white.

The broker report states FY17, so I expect them to hit that, do you? They have also amended FY18, so its clear they are focused on hitting the FY18 target, now revised as per investors.

A forecast is subject to change, it's based on past, current, and projected financial conditions. Simple as that.

The brokers report states EBITDA Margin of (-9.5) and EBITDA (2.89) with revenue of 30.34. That's in the very recent brokers report. Are you suggesting, since its pas the year end those figures are not true?

Are you suggesting, 4 months in, the 40.12 revenue target with EBITDA Margin of (-17.1) and EBITDA (6.85) are not close?

I am saying, they are not making a secret of their investments and the loss next year.
I am saying, inestors who invested now would have read this report and the circular.

You suggested they are being duped. How can they be, its clear. The strategy has been defined in the circular. It's been clearly costed, you can't deny that. The report is also clear and there is no reason why they won't hit their revenue target. they did the past 2 years, hit their target.

You refer to the loss and ignore their margins and revenue. The margin is kept, the losses are part of investments and growth.

[silkstag] 16/10/2017 14:38

Has EarthportFX (was called Baydonhill) blundered another £5m or been deemed too inefficient to continue? EPO just abandoned FX profit by outsourcing some/all of its FX to a third party!

Every time EPO issues funding forecasts it is followed by a late litany of downgrades. Just like September 2014:
Nov 2010 Prelims: “the Company is now fully funded to achieve its significant potential … we do expect ... to be well positioned for profitability in the periods ahead”
March 2011 Interims: “the Board and management currently expect to achieve a cash flow positive run rate during the 2011/12 financial year”

"Fully funded" ... "cash flow positive [in FY12]" ...
Is Hank Scuberoi's 2017 funding forecast credible? Why now, having been wildly inflated over and over again 2010-2016?
all imho. dyor.

[themirror] 16/10/2017 13:02

Silkstag

Are you open to discussing an alternative view? Yes or no?

What downgrades? We are in FY17.

The broker report states FY17, so I expect them to hit that, do you?
They have also amended FY18, so its clear they are focused on hitting the FY18 target, now revised as per investors.

You suggested investors invested not knowing the FY facts. They do, its in the brokers report, revised and clear. The FY18 has also been revised with a 5/10 year forcecast. For the next two years its clear they aim to target this and so far they have done so.


In June 17, their full year trading statement said:

As previously communicated, Earthport was not cash flow breakeven in FY 2017, principally to capitalise on the growth opportunities related to new customer acquisition, product and delivery enhancements presented during the year. Given the current business and operational trajectory, we are pleased that FY 2017 transactional performance, revenues, and year-end cash balance were in-line with market expectations. This positive momentum, coupled with our unique market positioning, gives us confidence in our continued growth and prospects.

They made clear their intentions.

Overall, I have asked a simple question:

If they hit the targets for the next 3 years, what do you think about that?

[silkstag] 16/10/2017 12:33

themirror post 13496 includes "we are 4 months into the year now and they have not made any further adjustments. They must be very confident they are going to hit 40m revenue at an average £2.35" and "You just can’t make those numbers up, 16.51m transactions. They are very accurate". Adorable!

EPO management, on 18 September 2014 for the £26.6m funding, failed to downgrade current year ie fy15 forecast £0.5m profit, or fy16 forecast £7.5m profit. After 4 late downgrades fy15 was a loss of -£8.7m (£9.2m below funding profit forecast). After further late downgrades Fy16 was a loss of -£8.2m (£15.7m below funding profit forecast). EPO serially do just 'make those numbers up' when raising disaster funding.

Investors relying on inflated forecasts lost a large % of their 20p cash the day they invested. H1fy18 will be a disaster just like h1fy15. All imho. Dyor

[themirror] 16/10/2017 12:16

In response to your post:

I think its clear what your views are, so forgive me, but your points are clear.
You think they are bloated to the hilt, their costs will rise, their revenue won’t support that and the unit price will fall and fall to zero, to the point the business will do nothing but fail. No problems, this view is speculative and is subject to change +/-, so lets park your view for a second and look at my open questions which you seem to ignore.

We are moving onto the next part of the conversation, so I am keen to understand whether you are capable in discussing my view and what I think? Are you? I have listened to you, so can you do the same. By the way, this is not about right or wrong, its about taking an objective slant on possible outcomes. Your outcome is one of many possibilities, ++/--. It’s not certain and though we can look at repeating themes, they may not always be the case.

Understand, we all change and evolve, companies do, that's unless you feel you are the same person as you were 30 years ago. If you are, you've not learnt anything and trust me, you would not have known everything from day dot.
So lets park your view and look at my view, can we do this?

Q1) So what if they hit these targets in year 18,19,20?

Lets make the assumptions the brokers report, the numbers which are very accurate are supporting their real strategy, whether you and I agree with them or not?
40m revenue in FY18 - £2.35 Loss (6.85/17.1)
54m revenue in FY19 - £2.23 Loss (2.32/4.2)
71m revenue FY20 +3.9
95m revenue FY21 + 12m

Q2) Do you think, if the brokers report was fairly correct, would that be good set of results and progress for the business. You have looked at the brokers report, yet said little.

Q3) Are you actually open to accepting earthport changing, turning the corner, if so what would be your definition of turning the corner? Is it growing revenue, as above shows, immediate small, very small profit or something else?

I am trying to establish, are you the type, that, no matter what happens to epo, you will always, no matter what they do, complain about them, or are you legitimately open to changing your mind as they turn the corner.

If you are not open, then the discussion is pointless don't you think. It will be a dead end non discussion where you said its black and black only.

Q4) Are you legitimately open to changing your mind?
So, let me understand are you capable of opening up to my view for a discussion or not, or is it one view and that's it. A discussion is a two way thing. Can you do this?

[themirror] 16/10/2017 12:00

Silkstag,

What statement suggests I asserted EPO management have not downgraded before the £25m funding round that proves they are on track for fy18?

If you look at the brokers report, have you looked at the brokers report? it shows their FY18 forcasts and the elements which have changed, while raising the 25 million. That's open, transparent don't you think. They are open, investors would have read the circular and report. It's all clear and their FY18 is clear.

What downgrade are you referring to? FY17 has been made clear, FY18 is clear, its in the public document.

[silkstag] 16/10/2017 10:35

Themirror, you assert that because EPO management have not downgraded before the £25m funding round that proves they are on track for fy18. If you believe that you are an adorable little fluffy wuffy bunny wunny!

For adult carnivores, here are some facts. On 18 September 2014 for the £26.6m funding EPO failed to downgrade its current year ie fy15 forecast of £0.5m profit, or its fy16 forecast of £7.5m profit. After 4 late downgrades fy15 was a loss of -£8.7m (ie £9.2m below funding profit forecast). After further late downgrades Fy16 was a loss of -£8.2m (ie £15.7m below funding profit forecast).

This is a recurring theme with this same EPO management team. They wildly inflate forecasts when raising disaster funding. Not just not-in-the-right-ballpark. Or merely the-wrong-postcode. But out-of-the-continent wild investor-slaughtering porkies!

Investors relying on those falsely inflated funding forecasts have in truth lost a large % of their cash the day they invest. It happened in 2014 @41p and has happened again in 2017 @20p. H1fy18 will be a disaster, with dirty late downgrades, just like h1fy15.

MANDATORY SELL. Large % of 20p already dead in wildly inflated forecasts
All imho. Dyor

[silkstag] 13/10/2017 16:51

Themirror, Sounds like you believe with all of your heart (and none of your head) that EPO management are 'strong and stable'. Good luck.

[silkstag] 13/10/2017 14:14

Themirror, Fy17 accounts due soon then we will see. Maybe EPO delayed paying creditors a few weeks or got a customer lump sum advance or the trading statement is false like fy16 where the accounts came in £0.5m lower than the dirty trading statement.
They had one seemingly solid period to 30-6-14, raised £26.6m, tanked the following period. Looks the same. So expect h1fy18 to be another disaster.
We know growth in h2fy17 decelerated from over 30% to 19%.
Overhang of sellers will also hammer the price once EGM creates 125m extra shares, of which say 20m are traders who want to cut and close the losses on their failed punt.
All imho. dyor

[themirror] 13/10/2017 13:31

silkstag,

I have a question:

Since you believe the accounts are fudged, no surprise from your line of thinking, could you explain, as you must now know, how their cash balance increased by 500K in the last 6 months for fy17.

[modetrade] 13/10/2017 13:29

they dare
impatient
narket
not knowing
could
plus


sounds like ifs, buts and ifs again from silkstag.

[silkstag] 13/10/2017 11:44

Sellers are likely getting impatient waiting to be bought @20p, with only low volume. They dare not wait until the EGM as they will be joined by an overhang of say 20m extra keen sellers, who bought as a trading punt at 20.6% discount to narket, not knowing enough about EPO broken promises and bloated overheads.
This could easily slide to 15p over the next month. Plus EPO will have to admit its Fy17 loss soon.
Imho. Dyor

[modetrade] 13/10/2017 08:12

Nap, i get it.

[napoleon 14th] 13/10/2017 01:52

WTF?
This thread is hyper-active, EPO keep soaking their shareholders & others for more cash, we're fed promises in return. All the guys trying to mount Silk Stag & she farts in their face as they try, & so on & so on & so on.

I buy shares to make MONEY, not hot air.
When I compare EPO to what's been going on in minerals, this share is a massive bore.
Lucky I have just a few, & copper today (let alone rare earth metals & uranium) is a far better formula than all the non-profitable gizmo in the world.

In fact, so is FUTR, 'cos that's jam today too.

[modetrade] 12/10/2017 21:42

hey trouble twit - why post the same commet on the board for PAL

[modetrade] 12/10/2017 21:40

oh no, not another twit