Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[dogwalker] 18/8/2020 18:03

Sometime between now & next year? Or longer, & yet longer still.? Question mark?
? What do you think? EI? Maybe we've seen the highs for this cycle, i.e it's gone in the blink of an eye? That's highs & lows, the both? So many questions?
All I know is that this is a poorly-run company , with some sort of blabby clown in charge, making poor decisions.( I listened to him one morning recently on Radio4.....that was enough.)

[essentialinvestor] 18/8/2020 16:44

Question to ask is...have we seen the sector earnings low for this cycle?.

If yes, it's the shallowest peak/trough earnings cycle
I've ever seen for the sector.

There looks to be a very significant unemployment wave to come globally,
which has been mostly held back by government backed schemes to this point.

Around October/November time we may have a more accurate picture.

[fhmktg] 18/8/2020 16:15

American style!

[m2ainly] 18/8/2020 15:58

Paper bags?

[moorsie2] 18/8/2020 07:48

They only have 2 times ebitda debt which in pe is circles is none!

Quite often the hearing level on such deals is 7 or 8. Money is cheap.....

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/8/2020 07:00

With over £2.1 billion debt already before PE loads it up?

[moorsie2] 18/8/2020 06:50

The valuation gap to its peers.

Private money is presently scouring the ftse250 to find such opportunities and it provides a payday out and pathway to riches for senior management..

[dbaker1980] 17/8/2020 22:26

Moorsie, what is making you think that?

[jeffian] 17/8/2020 22:18

Oh please. I've just been through all that with RPC. That's why I ended up here.

[moorsie2] 17/8/2020 22:14

This is now primed for a private equity take out....

Such a move would be beneficial for virtually all stakeholders.

[2vdm] 13/8/2020 07:36

They made a decision to preserve cash. The fact it has affected the share price is immaterial in the short term. Yes, it's not nice for us pi's, but it gives the SMDS a larger safety net and flexibility. At best I think they might offer a reduced divi. More importantly, I'd like another update.

[fhmktg] 13/8/2020 07:12

Maybe because they screwed up earlier?

[2vdm] 13/8/2020 07:04

Why do you think it's likely?

[moorsie2] 12/8/2020 15:40

I would say it is very likely....

[fhmktg] 12/8/2020 14:49

Agm in a few weeks...any possibility of an announcement of renewed dividend.....

[moorsie2] 10/8/2020 12:21

EssentialInvestor.... this sector is usually recession proof due to the 80% plus customer base in food and drinks.. so it is a good sector in such times..

The problems of 2008 and how this sector was hammered stem from the very high debt levels and gearing SKG had and to a less extent MNDI and SMDS.

Looking at the 3 companies now, their debt ratios are much much lower than in 2008. Moreover going by their results announcements since March this year it also looks like their earnings are relatively good too as demand is holding up.

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2020 13:50

Moorsie, you know this sector very well...

I always thought once the next downturn arrived, packaging companies
would be hit for six, as per 2008.

Yet, the large listed companies remain highly profitable (at least to this point).

Is there a reason for the divergence in performance re 2008?.

Perhaps the large sector players in a stronger position, taking market share,
are significantly more efficient?. Would be interested to hear your view.

[moorsie2] 09/8/2020 12:39

I agree - Mondi looks like great value

[essentialinvestor] 07/8/2020 16:31

Mondi looks the sector play atm, however better looked at on weakness.

[moorsie2] 07/8/2020 13:28

Diminishing ROI per year for last 4 years.significantly lower than peers.

Game is up for Roberts. Time for him to go. Share price will rebound...

[essentialinvestor] 07/8/2020 12:56

Marked recent share price underperformance v SKG and Mondi.

Market thinking they may have overpaid for acquisitions?, possibly.

[moorsie2] 07/8/2020 08:09

They need to come out at the AGM and announce a special dividend. They left the door open for such a thing if you read the annual results message.

With Mondi and Smurfut, their two competitors in the market and in FTSE already doing so, they are being hammered for poor leadership.

I think it is about time Robert's passed over the baton to a new CEO , he has been in position too long now and I do not see him capable of leading a new 5 year charge to become clear number one supplier of choice.

[cousin jack] 06/8/2020 11:49

A broker downgrade affecting the shares today and again drifting close to March lows. I remain confident this is a good buy for medium term recovery as their core market has held up well. Agree with other posters that a deferral/temporary reduction of the dividend would have indicated both caution and confidence.

[fhmktg] 03/8/2020 11:30

Timely product announcement!