Drax Share Discussion Threads

[the runt] 20/9/2019 17:46

Decent £10M purchase today. Might be on upward trend :-) Has been oversold IMO, but what does a runt know?

[castleford tiger] 24/7/2019 13:40

6 of which
4 are bio mass and
2 coal

tiger

[lastoleave] 07/7/2019 00:55

Am i right in thinking Drax have eight turbines, 6 of which are bio mass burning (2 coal). They plan to convert the last two to burning gas. This may be part of the problem for drax their two remaining turbines are earning them very little income as far as I can see. Just look at how much coal is been burnt for energy, its partial nothing now in summer months. The sooner they convert to gas the better.

Grid watch is a good place t o watch coal at practically zero output.

[minerve 2] 25/6/2019 21:13

I do know better.

[minerve 2] 25/6/2019 17:51

Some of us know exactly what the situation is. If you don't like it, if you think it is hypocritical, don't invest. No one is requesting you to do so.

Cattle/beef production is one of the worst sectors for global warming.

So is pet food production.

The CHIMPS will scream about Drax whilst they drive to Wetherspoons cuddling their lycra clad poodles.

[zcaprd7] 25/6/2019 17:42

Bit rude - I'm just trying point out that their business is selling energy, and they've decided to burn wooden pellets, shipped across the Atlantic, to boil a large kettle...

[minerve 2] 25/6/2019 15:24

Give it a rest CHIMP.

[zcaprd7] 25/6/2019 15:20

Gas isn't carbon neutral, and they have to compete with that? Also, cattle are quite useful, as you can eat them...

[zcaprd7] 25/6/2019 15:18

And logs are full of water, and extremely ineffecient to move around and then burn, let alone convert into electricity, and then transmit that electricity...

[castleford tiger] 25/6/2019 13:27

Anyone else astounded at falling energy prices???


Electric is up 30% for business users and 20% domestic customers YOY.

Just who is earning all this extra cash.

Much lower and I will be buying again

tiger

[minerve 2] 25/6/2019 13:09

Robi_n & catscats

It was on FT Alphaville this morning. A request for a Drax update was asked and the FT had the Citi note.

I'm holding and not making judgement until half-year results and the ruling from the European Commission.

The share price should find some support soon as it is below NAV and NTAV by a reasonable margin and although I have yet to remind myself fully of all those assets I think that should still give us some 'Grahamesque' reassurance.

Good luck.

[catscats] 25/6/2019 12:51

Thanks Minerve. All looks a bit grim

[robi_n] 25/6/2019 12:50

Thanks Minerve. May I ask where you found this information? Any link maybe? I’ve been trying all morning but couldn’t find anything.

[minerve 2] 25/6/2019 12:27

Drax shares are down c.30% over the last 5 months as it rekindles its’ relationship with the forward power and gas prices. The problem is, European gas price in the short term is expected to face further downside pressure, potentially dragging down forward power prices in the UK. With no reason to turn more constructive given the commodity price outlook, limited visibility on capacity market payments this year and an expected weak 1H results, we reiterate our Sell and lower our PT to 265p.

Commodity price back in the driving seat.

Following recent weakness of Drax shares, it has now re-established its relationship with the UK forward power and gas prices. We see no reason why this relationship should not continue going forwards.

Weak gas (and power) prices outlook.

As Citi Commodity team highlight here, Europe has already seen a doubling of LNG imports which have flooded the market and we expect further LNG to head our way. With the prospect of gas storage already full by late summer (2 months earlier), we see downside risk to 2019 gas prices. While this is likely to be most visible to short dated curve, it’s likely to cap longer dated forward curves or even for them to be dragged lower. Given commodity prices’ linkage to Drax shares, we see potential downside risk from here.

Capacity market remains uncertain.

The European Commission now has all the necessary information for its capacity market investigation. There is no specific deadline for a decision to be made, although BEIS is still hopeful that a decision will come before end of 2019. Given the duration of previous investigations, we see risk of no capacity payment in 2019.

Weak 1H, leaving 2H exposed to downgrade.

We expect 1H results to deliver 39% of FY EBITDA (CITIe is 15% lower than consensus), which is c.4% of FY EPS, given lower production across its fleet. This leaves Drax exposed on its FY EBITDA consensus of £400-410m, in our view. We have updated our forecast and valuation to reflect the latest lower commodity price outlook, with near term EPS broadly unchanged due to hedging. Our 12m PT is now lower at 265p. We also open a downside catalyst watch on the expected weak 1H results.






Courtesy FT Markets Live & Citi

[minerve 2] 25/6/2019 11:42

Trees are carbon neutral, coal isn't.

If you consider what land use would be for the wood pellet plantations - which would most likely be cattle ranches - the argument is even stronger.

Stop being a superficial numpty.

[zcaprd7] 25/6/2019 11:39

Perhaps is because they used to burn coal, and now they burn trees?

[catscats] 25/6/2019 10:10

does anyone know why the share price is so weak...i can only guess that it is being sold by ex Woodford funds (St James Place) since Woodford has sold his in the EIF. Or maybe investors don't believe that the suspended gov subsidy will be re-instated...or broker downgrades....?

[nick rubens] 24/6/2019 19:46

SP seems to be in daily free fall. Is the recent restored dividend level sustainable in the years ahead?

[zcaprd7] 24/6/2019 11:30

What was the EU political donations all about?

[zcaprd7] 10/6/2019 00:53

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/strike-threat-at-biggest-power-station-drax-d65t5hfdxCould be a problem?

[rburtn] 30/5/2019 08:57

zcaprd7 you are quite right, it is even more cuckoo when any competent physicist can show you that the unscientific and ill-defined greenhouse gas theory is bonkers.

The water cycle governs Earth's temperature and climate. Mankind's industrial development is having a massive impact on the quantum and distribution of water vapour and its condensate - clouds.

I have written to the CEO and recently the Chairman suggesting they are tilting at windmills with carbon capture and asking why. Just like all the great and the good to whom I have written with very straightforward arguments demolishing this conspiracy, not a word in reply. Drax is not alone. I see a former Chief Scientist is forming a Cambridge Unit to consider a crackpot scheme for seeding clouds with salt to increase 'albedo' - as if that will replicate the sheer versatility and self-regulating function of clouds! More likely it will do irreversible ecological damage. Why not just trickle water over pavements sufficient to lower temperature to the surrounding land and leave the sun and vapour pressure to do the rest?

The basic principle whereby Earth manages its temperature is simple and it is mildly embarrassing for a scientist to have to explain. The authorities must know the scale of the deception - all to deny the fact that population swarming and surface degradation is at the root. The scientists who ignore all the data and produce conclusions from flawed - or, is that doctored? - models are paid stooges.

[zcaprd7] 29/5/2019 10:27

Trying to be carbon negative seems like cloud cuckoo land?

[minerve 2] 22/5/2019 10:02

Woodford no longer holds Drax.

[gordogecks] 08/5/2019 09:20

With the CFO nibbling is this the bottom?

Any reason Drax has sold off a touch over the last few weeks as not seen the two main holders, Invesco and Woodford , offload much. Invesco last offloaded 1% mid March I think it was.

Is it Remuneration issues again?