Dragon Oil Share Discussion Threads

[fido] 25/7/2015 14:44

PS,
Elliot are agressively pushing up their holding and I would expect that to continue into next week.
Elliot will be pushing for a higher price by trying to secure a no vote at the first hurdle of 30th July. If they are successfull then the ball is in ENOC`s court.

[fido] 25/7/2015 14:36

blakieboy7,
Did you ever think for a single second that the independent committee was in fact independent?

You like many have been here far too long for that.

[blakieboy7] 25/7/2015 13:28

Not forgetting that a member of the independent committee jumped ship over to ENOC. Independent my ass!!!

[fido] 25/7/2015 13:12

blakieboy7,
Investors are not being given the full picture by ENOC and Dragon are keeping stum because ENOC have told them to.

I repeat an earlier post:

"Out of 9 analysts covering Dragon Oil PLC, 1 rate it a Buy, 7 indicate a Hold while 0 suggest a Sell. The highest target is GBX 1251 and the lowest is GBX 791 according to Thomson/First Call. The 12-month mean target is GBX 1082, which means upside potential of 50.59% over the current price"

[blakieboy7] 25/7/2015 13:06

It really is no wonder ENOC are aggressively going after the remainder of DGO right now

[blakieboy7] 25/7/2015 12:02

Great research Fido

[fido] 25/7/2015 12:00

One further piece of news which adds to the logic of ENOC`s takeover of Dragon is that in the UAE the petrol market is being deregulated and from August 1st fuel subsidies on petrol will be cut.
What this means to ENOC is that instead of making losses on petrol they will be making profits and gives added weight for ENOC to guarantee its cheap supply of oil, taking oil from the Iranian swaps which have now resumed.
This shows even more the importance of Dragon to ENOC`s business plan.

[fido] 25/7/2015 08:36

Just out of interest I was reading a report from KNOC on block 9 in Iraq last night. They say that production will start in Q4 of this year. Originally production was due to start in 2017 but such is the pace of the fast tracking that production was moved to the first half of 2016. For that production now to be moved to the 4Q of this year seems remarkable if true but I do know that things are certainly moving apace to develope this block with roads and infrastructure being fast tracked. Certainly as far as the one well already drilled is concerned the production casing is already in place so it is possible depending upon connecting infrastructures.
The report cited intial production of 20,000bopd, and being quickly ramped up to 120,000bopd.
There are two more wells to be drilled this year.
The overall tone of the report is that this is going to be a nice little money earner for those involved and Dragon have a 30% stake.

[oscarino] 24/7/2015 18:42

Not sure if this has already been posted.I apologise if it has.

www.thenational.ae/business/energy/minority-shareholders-hit-back-at-enoc-in-battle-for-dragon-oil

[zedman_1] 24/7/2015 11:52

Re the announcement of Ahmad Al Muhairbi moving to ENOB

"The move is expected to further antagonise minority shareholders upset with the latest offer for Dragon.

“The news, in our view, will likely embolden the view of the minority shareholders in Dragon Oil that view the offer from ENOC as undervaluing the Dragon Oil assets,” said Gerry Hennigan of Goodbody Stockbrokers. He estimated the combined holding of those minority shareholders unhappy with the current offer from ENOC stands at 15.7%."

[exbroker] 23/7/2015 20:36

It should be a done deal but some of the larger shareholders are not happy at the price. We know what they wont take ( Not sure thats true for Elliot but time will tell) but we dont know what they will take.That is what ENOC have to find out, and they wont want to ask the question until after the first close on 30 July. What would tip the deal is Elliot buying another 2% odd or another arb fund nipping in and taking a 2 or 3% stake, Elliot would not be happy to see another arb eat thier lunch!

[fido] 23/7/2015 18:41

"Going to be close, Elliot your serve!!"

So if this bid was like the last and required 75% acceptance then ENOC would almost certainly loose yet again.
The fact that ENOC have lowered the bar and now only require 50% makes it a close call. At least that would explain all the acts of desperation we have seen from the ENOC camp over this last few weeks and is a million miles from the "this is a done deal so you might as well sell" retoric we as investors have had to endure from some highly suspect postings.

[exbroker] 23/7/2015 18:20

I have had a look at the shareholders list of Dragon, very interesting.
There seems to be a very low level of private investors on the list, the usual brokers nominees seem absent, which suggest to me that fido et al are a very vocal but very small minority!
The main players apart from BG with 35.38M,Elliot 27.19M, Setanta 15.64m which given there are 493,384,194 share in issue gives the public no or maybe no camp 15.82% of the 46% free float. However there are a number of mostly US holders on the list who are depending on the tax position and type of the fund going to accept or sell in the market.
IG Investment Man 11.52M,Invesco(USA)10.24M,Franklin 12.95M, Power Corp of Canada 6.14M,Harding Loevner 5.9M Blackrock 5.5M,William Blair 4.3M. Invsetec, Tiaa cref,RBC, Fidelity,HSBC, and JP Morgan all hold more than 2M. There is another 19.3M in active hands before you get down to the trackers. Going to be close, Elliot your serve!!

[fido] 23/7/2015 17:16

oscarino,
I cannot see ENOC being out of the picture at the moment as this is too much of an opportunity for them.
However knowing this, the main investors are pushing for a higher price.

[oscarino] 23/7/2015 17:09

Fido
Imagine what the price would be if ENOB was out of the picture

[fido] 23/7/2015 16:35

"The highest target is GBX 1251"

Not bad in this oil price environment.
Imagine what it would be if oil was heading back up to $100 a barrel.

[fido] 23/7/2015 16:03

"Out of 9 analysts covering Dragon Oil PLC, 1 rate it a Buy, 7 indicate a Hold while 0 suggest a Sell. The highest target is GBX 1251 and the lowest is GBX 791 according to Thomson/First Call. The 12-month mean target is GBX 1082, which means upside potential of 50.59% over the current price"

[atty3] 23/7/2015 15:03

That they are taking advantage of the share price, in order to make a few quid from the offer? Just a hunch...

[fido] 23/7/2015 14:42

Setanta while sitting on the fence for the last few days added 388,483 shares yesterday while Elliot added 332,153.

What does that tell you about their intentions?

[fido] 23/7/2015 12:18

Email sent to BG:

Dear Sir,
Regarding the announcement that Mr Ahmad Al Muhairbi has been appointed as a director of ENOC having been previously a member of Dragon Oil`s independent committee that recommended the ENOC offer to shareholders.
There is a great deal of anger and suspicion amongst private shareholders of behind closed door deals surrounding the comittee`s recommendations and questioning of whether the independent committee was ever independent at all.
Given the timescales involved in the directorship process it is obvious that in Mr Ahmad Al Muhairbi case his independence could have been swayed by his upcoming ENOC directorship and therefore at best the whole question of the committee`s independence is extreamly questionable. Such an event has caused considerable anger and suspicion amongst private investors who now see the committee`s independence as being serverly tainted.
Can I ask if Baillie Gifford intend to make representations to ENOC over this matter because many investors now see the independent committee`s recommendation as null and void.

Yours gratefully,

Mr XXXXXXX

[fido] 23/7/2015 11:59

Just out of interest, this would be the results of the Iranian gas swaps with Turkman/Dragon gas piped to northern Iran and the equivalent LNG shipped to world markets from the southern Iranian ports.

[bealey] 23/7/2015 10:06

its interesting going back though previous posts to see how how the same people chop and change what they have already done or said!

[exbroker] 23/7/2015 10:05

Elliot are playing chicken with ENOC, we will have a better idea who might win when we see the level of acceptances after the first close on 30 July.