Domino's Pizza Share Discussion Threads

[silverfern] 03/12/2007 16:24

Different issues for Clapham of course, not least the delay in roll out of stores, impact of prices, whereas DOM have at least advised the market of how they are managing that. If this does fall any further I will be very tempted. DOM is a great company and I regretted selling two years ago.....until today

[mitzis] 03/12/2007 09:00

clapham house has been trashed stay well away from restaurants in the future.
A share price of 150p would be more reasonable.

[trt] 03/12/2007 08:59

A profit warning knocked Clapham House, down 117p, or 47%, at 131.5p unsettled other restaurant groups where Individual Restaurant at 191.5p, Prezzo 53p, Domino's Pizza 174p, and Restaurant Group dropped between 7p and 26p.

[techmark] 03/12/2007 08:27

trt,

You were telling everybody that it was going to 400p a few months back. Let's have a look back at my comments in June when the shares were 280p or so.


techmark - 19 Jun'07 - 14:19 - 798 of 1148 edit

Well I think the problem here is the rating not the business, which is good. My guess is that next year will prove much tougher, especially with the expectations that the results this year will be out of this world. The comparision will be much tougher.

If growth slows to 10% in 2008, perfectly plausible, then all of sudden everybody will be looking around and saying what the hell are we doing paying more than 30 times and a PEG of 3 for a stock with 10% earnings growth. The stock would be quickly rerated lower to a P/E of 15-20 times and that means a 30-50% fall in the share price.

[trt] 03/12/2007 08:24

Well I think it might be worth buying back in when the price reaches the £1.20ish level

[clarky5150] 03/12/2007 08:17

Morning all. Ridiculously large spread this am. Wonder why??

[indieman] 21/11/2007 08:02

Actually, it has been resistance as well as support over a substantial period (Jan to April this year), so recent action has been the first retest. If you look at the way the price soared after April, you can see the potential concern if the price falls below 195p.

[lob2] 20/11/2007 23:01

Indieman,

I agree with your analysis. I am right (and worried) about instutions picking up large share parcels. On the one hand it is positive that they are willing to support the share price. On the other, the selling needs to stop, as they won't support the share price indefinitely.

I asked the company directly whether there was any particular reason why the share price had dropped over the last few days and was told that nothing has changed since the update at the beginning of November which prompted the buy recommendations. It is a question of market sentiment. People seem to be intent on cashing in regardless of the quality of the company. I am not sure how this can turn around. Would be reassuring to see a bounce tomorrow but I can't see what that catalyst would be.

I guess you are saying that this has been the support level at various points over the last 12 months and it needs to hold?

[indieman] 20/11/2007 22:41

lob,

Should you be right about institutions picking up large share parcels, it's more worrying. It implies that without that support, it would have fallen quite a bit further.

Mind you, 200p involves more than just round number psychology. Check out the chart for the last year for support levels.

[lob2] 20/11/2007 20:07

In fact, I think the conensus prospective p/e for y/e 2007 is now 24.8.
Whether that's still too expensive, I don't know. It does seems reasonable. I know the company regards its valuation in terms of discount to cashflow and on that basis it thinks its shares are good value. However, it's what the market thinks that's going to determine things.

[lob2] 20/11/2007 19:31

Indieman, I hope you are right about the possibility of a pullback. 200p feels like an important psychological support as well as a solid support level in the last year. At the moment, the selling pressure seems relentless. The company purchased another 250,000 shares today at 204 and I believe over 1.5m shares were placed with instutions also at 204. They were gathering up loose stock. Whether that will stem the flow of sales that has been pushing the price lower, time will tell. I think the company believes its shares are undevalued. However, it's the market I'm concerned about.

Dom is now on a prospective p/e for the y/e 31/12/07 of 26 and 22 for next year. Would like to think that this is good value for a growth stock but not if everyone wants to be in cash.

[indieman] 20/11/2007 16:48

200p now gone, although a pullback is possible. Shame it happened when the market recovered a bit.

[clarky5150] 14/11/2007 08:23

Morning all. Been a positive start to November especially as the markets in general have been all over the place.

[mitzis] 02/11/2007 08:21

Telegraph says Buy

[indieman] 01/11/2007 22:36

lob,

The analyst's recommendations appear to pay little attention to the dangers to the UK economy at the moment and its possible effects on discretionary spending.
It also fails to recognise the dangers inherent in holding the shares of a high p/e company at a time when investors are questioning their own risk appetite.

[vassily] 01/11/2007 22:00

And still the price declines.
DOM at 150p would be scrummy.

[lob2] 01/11/2007 16:42

Looks like a pretty solid update from Dominos. Nothing other than market sentiment to explain the decline from 300 pence. Profits to be in line with market expectations notwithstanding a one-off hit due to a rise in costs. Of particular reassurance to long-term holders like me was that they are on track to open another 45 stores this year. There had been some speculation that they were falling behind in this area due to planning difficulties. Today Panmure Gordon, Charles Stanley and altium Capital reiterated their buy reommendations with a target in the 315 to 350 range. Having bounced yet again from the 200 pence level and in the knowlege that the comany is in good shape, I think the potential to the upside is a now a lot greater than the risk to the downside. I suppose the analysts could all be wrong but they do seem to be consistently impressed with this company and its prospects.

[k4] 01/11/2007 10:04

I think lob2's "event" arrived yesterday - the report putting the frighteners on all processed food!

[cambium] 01/11/2007 09:37

14/10 2003 was when I last bought for a three bagger

[cambium] 01/11/2007 09:21

Im out too thanks for the ride guys

[dan10] 01/11/2007 09:12

Looks like a short from here. Good company but p/e high, and economy bearish so sales will prob drop. 150p target?

[techmark] 01/11/2007 08:10

trt,

"I think there is real danger now the price could fall below the £2.00 level and if there isn't a bounce back to £2.00 showing support, then there is a chance the price could go lower still".

I told you that several months ago when the share price was almost 300p. At that point you were ramping the stock and calling for 350p or more.

[lob2] 30/10/2007 13:30

I think it is events that will determine the next move. The analyst presentations are going to take place this Thursday. There may also be a trading update. There needs to be some convincing news and recommendations for the upward momentum to continue. Any disappointment will certainly push the share price down again. However, positive news could lift the share price towards 250 - 260's level. As I mentuioned in an earlier post, I think the directors need to show faith by making purchases of their own. The last director transaction was by the chairman in the sale of 5% of his holding. Whilst, he probably just wanted some cash and had a reason to sell not linked to the company's propsects, I feel it happened at a bad time in terms of sentiment towards the company. Some directors' purchases would help the sentiment significantly in my view. I wonder if they read these posts?

[indieman] 30/10/2007 07:13

DOM seems to be gradually winding up to a move, but the direction is still unclear.

The 50 and 200day EMAs may yet avoid a Dead Cross and, as long as the 200day itself turns up, that would be pretty positive. I have noticed previously that when such an MA cross is in prospect but they either don't cross or only do so modestly, the price can react quite strongly in the opposite of the normal direction. On the other hand, volume on the recent rise is very modest and doesn't suggest great underlying strength of support.