Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cassini] 26/10/2021 14:11

redtom,

Thanks for the tip. Of course as soon as someone recommends some share to me either it soars away before I can buy it or I buy it and it nosedives ;0)

I'll take a look at it, cheers.

[johnhemming] 26/10/2021 13:41

I was a holder of VSL. It differs from DEC in that DEC has some inbuilt inflation protection and VSL does not. I sold my VSL earlier this year as I expected inflation and probably stagflation.

[scrwal] 26/10/2021 13:14

redtom1
As a VSL holder I am happy with things but expect more volatility I held it purely for the yield but it is now one of my biggest gainers.

FAIR pays a big div too.

[redtom1] 26/10/2021 10:37

Cassini,
Just following up on my VPC recommendation. It had some SPAC activity today which boosted it 7% today such that the yield has dropped to around 8.2%. It normally is not a volatile share. Today was an exception.

[lab305] 26/10/2021 08:22

redtom1 in the early part of the year DEC share price did indeed reflect the gas price reaching 130p. That continued until the placing which in my view was a disaster . You only have to look at the comments on here to see that posters not only fear but expect another one. That placing did us far more damage than Bloomberg ever could and continues to undermine the share price going forward. A realistic share price in my view would be somewhere around 145p or more at present and the brokers target much higher @ 160 to 176p. I cannot see the company pulling the same trick again and they do have some ammunition left .

[redtom1] 25/10/2021 23:28

iknocker, I'm not suggesting that DEC should be totally correlated to the NG price. I'm just suggesting that the share price should be a little more responsive to the NG increases. Rusty himself said that DEC 'is a making a lot of money' when NG was 2/3rds of current level.
I also note that the recent Cenkos reports on DEC make reference to 2 of its closest comparison companies, Antero and Range Resources. They too have significant hedging in place. These 2 are bigger companies than DEC (so not some penny share Cos) and have risen 125% and 180% over the last 6 months. DEC has risen 5%. If other similar companies can rise significantly but DEC does not, that indicates (to me) that some others factors are in play that is holding it back. I guess asset retirement is a major issue (if a simple article can knock off 20%) and also the likely rights issue or placement in the near future. Just an observation from a slightly disappointed long term holder of DEC.

[redtom1] 25/10/2021 23:20

Cassini, great post and a great list. I hold all of those shares. I would add another, rather obscure company, to your list. It is VPC Specialty Lending Investments plc. It is a niche debt providing company, so not for everyone but has had good reviews in Investment Trust Newsletter. It yields around 9% and is on around 15-20% discount to NAV. Just a thought.

[sunbed44] 25/10/2021 22:47

Brilliant info TY. Will look at all these and sorry to other for the O/T while its a bit quiet

[cassini] 25/10/2021 22:22

sunbed44,

Try Chesnara (CSN) insurance. The very definition of a dull stock, but low P/E and high dividend and also good dividend record.

Imperial Brands (IMB) are the 4th largest tobacco firm in the world and their dividend is high and looking very secure nowadays. BATS also perhaps.

Phoenix group(PHNX) closed end pension funds/insurance are also good and relatively cheap at the moment.

In mining, Polymetal (POLY) and Rio Tinto (RIO) perhaps. Both cheapish at the moment IMO. POLY probably has bottomed now along with a lot of other PM miners. Not sure about RIO. RIO is a bit of a blue chip stock which generates a ton of money in the good times. Buy when cheap and squirrel away IMO.

Raven Properties cumulative irredeemable preference shares (RAVP). Russian warehousing. Seems very reliable and of course preference shares get paid before ordinary shares.

Also M&G (MNG), insurance. Trades on a low P/E and has a high dividend. Floated off the Pru 2-3 years ago. Looking a bit weak at the moment but worth a look.

[sunbed44] 25/10/2021 21:56

Thanks to all for the info re ex div dates etc. As we know this pays excellent dividends and im looking for other high paying dividend stocks. SEPL and WEN both pay about 7% and do any peeps on here have any other recommendations either in O&G or in any other sectors TIA

[johnhemming] 25/10/2021 20:20

@1knocker I agree with your underlying view, but the increases in US gas price do have some (positive) impact on DEC.

[1knocker] 25/10/2021 18:50

Redtom, that is why the rest of us are invested in DEC. The price does not rise 10% on a 10% NG price rise, and does not fall 10% on a 10% fall in the NG price either. If you expect to see a spike up in the share price on a spike in the NG price, you have backed an inappropriate horse in DEC.

[johnhemming] 25/10/2021 16:38

My figures on Henry Hub have a slight reduction on Spot to USD 4.81

[redtom1] 25/10/2021 16:30

Anyone else just a little bit disappointed that the share price goes up only 0.8p on a day that the price of NG shoots up over 10% (currently at 59.90). Oh well......

[scrwal] 25/10/2021 15:33

The Q3 2021 dividend should be announced soon. It is normally done by the end of October. The xd is likely to be late Feb early March.

The next xd is 25 Nov and paid 17 Dec.

[scrwal] 25/10/2021 15:25

Gary

In the 7 October conference call it was stated that the company has reached its target debt ratio.
I inferred from that that the next acquisition would be financed solely from a placing - I may well be wrong.

[johnhemming] 25/10/2021 14:57

I don't know what has been announced, but I would start looking at what happened last year

[sunbed44] 25/10/2021 13:31

Does anybody know when DEC announce next dividend and when it goes ex-divi

[gary1966] 25/10/2021 13:27

scrwal.

Can you provide a link to where Rusty has said any new acquisitions will be financed by shares and not include any borrowing as I have missed that. Last I heard/read was that we were at the lower end of leverage ratio metrics at around 2.1 and so thought that we still had reasonable financing headroom given that a new acquisition in itself would provide more profit to leverage off.

TIA

Gary

[redtom1] 25/10/2021 13:22

Scrwal, I reckon you are right. Around the 120p mark people get nervous.
I guess that DEC will want to forewarn investors this time around as a well flagged rights issue is much more acceptable than one that takes the market by surprise (ie the last placing). I'm hoping that there will be a section on this issue at the Capital Markets Day.

[scrwal] 25/10/2021 12:59

Recently when the price gets in the mid 120s it gets hit hard - first the May placing and then Bloomberg.
I reckon 120p is where some people think that is when DEC will look to make a placement. Rusty has already said any new acquisitions will be financed by shares and not include any borrowing.

[johnhemming] 25/10/2021 10:31

Forecast FCF for 2021 is USD 269M and 2022 is USD455m.

At some point the financial position of the company should be reflected in the share price 115*455/269=199.2

[redtom1] 25/10/2021 10:07

I think to expect 140p is a little on the optimistic side given that it has never been at that level and is not an over-loved stock! With the high dividend and uncertainties over asset retirement and a possible share placing/rights issue, I think 120p+ is more likely to be the ceiling. I would be very happy to be proved wrong!!

[janhar] 25/10/2021 09:41

Happy to hold for income, expecting 140p in the not too distant future. Really glad to have added at 94p on the bogus Bloomberg article

[redtom1] 25/10/2021 08:38

Anyone else noticing that as soon as the share price heads into the 116-120p range, a few big sells come in, knocking it back. I think a few nervous investors are happy to take a profit every time it approaches 120p. I can't blame them but its a shame if it is holding back the SP, particularly with NG flying again. Anyone else joining the Capital Markets Day?