Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 05/2/2024 14:12

Another day closer to dividend date :)

[topazfrenzy] 05/2/2024 14:12

The roulette does not pay you 8% dividend per quarter lol

[stevensupertrader] 05/2/2024 14:01

No Buyback No support on share price . Now under £8.90 . Definitely going downhill .
This counter is worse than gamblimg in the casino roulette wheel buying red or black,
at least one has 50/50 chance of winning but buying DEC is just one way down - bound to loss sad 😞 sad 😞

[bountyhunter] 04/2/2024 19:28

Today's Oak Bloke link is now in the header for future reference. I'm struggling to keep up with him but he makes some very good points!

[aleman] 04/2/2024 17:06

elpirata
3 Feb '24 - 17:24 - 7835 of 7836

Im not surprised, WV State is protecting its own interests here as without DEC's NLVL well plugging operations theyd be on the hook for maybe hundreds of orphaned wells yearly without having the resources for plugging & capping.

Some background:

West Virginia has slightly under 5000 documented orphaned wells but could get over $200m as its share of $5bn of already-approved federal funds. Its wells are quite geographically concentrated, meaning they might be amongst the cheaper ones to cap. At $50k each, that might mean capping of 80% of its documented orphaned wells has already been funded - but is that a realistic price? Time will tell.



Reporting is slowly improving, but continued scaremongering suggests many are still oblivious to the $5bn of federal funds already approved. It would cover most of the 130k documented wells nationally if capping costs come down, which they should. However, there is then the problem of undocumented wells which range in estimate from around 500k to 5 million. Until we get a better handle on that total, nobody knows if they have already funded capping for most documented orphaned wells and perhaps 20% of the overall total - or only just 2% of the total.

Note that the above article suggests a capping cost estimate per well of $125k but that is the going rate in a distorted market suddenly hit with federally-funded demand and desperately lacking in supply. NLVL is probably doing very well from very profitable market prices at the moment but the price should drop towards DEC's internally costed $20k+ as more capping competition becomes available. Should this happen quickly, then federal funding already approved might cover as much as 50% of a potential 500k total wells - but only 5% if there are 5 million.

Of course, people will choose whichever estimated figures they want, depending on whichever slant they want to put on the story. With a wide range on potential capping cost and a wide range on potential number of wells, there is a very wide range of potential on how expensive the ultimate bill will be. A few people out there probably actually have a better idea of the ultimate cost but can't get their voices heard above all the vested interests.

[kaos3] 04/2/2024 15:08

I am a simple slovenian gardener with no clue. But i can sense that those who know the drill are very excited.oak just cant hide his well researched positive excitement.

Attackers cant cope with stated facts going for dec.

All they have is power of money and bots. To simply manipulate share price regardless of daily dec business value.

I will be buying even more.

[imnotspartacus] 04/2/2024 15:00

Good stuff bounty.
I’m firmly in the keep the dividend at all costs camp and do some buybacks if cash available. It’s definitely starting to look juicy though.

[bountyhunter] 04/2/2024 14:27

And another!

DEC-imals and decibels
The clamour of preserving dividends vs buy backs at DEC

THE OAK BLOKE
4 FEB 2024

"This article seeks to show the value which might accrue from buy backs. However I hold a sympathy for those dependent on dividends, those who feel maintaining dividends is a great way to (quite literally) make the shorters pay, and also that the dividend itself is extremely attractive."

[bluemango] 04/2/2024 13:43

Thanks bounyhunter.

Oak Bloke's latest article also includes a poll at the end, where the current equal top choices are:

'Rusty's strategy is right' and
'Keep the dividend at all costs'

Someone in the comments has also alerted Oak Bloke to the WV House Bill 5076 news, so he will be aware now even in the unlikely event he wasn't already.

[bountyhunter] 04/2/2024 13:35

The link to Oak Bloke's article from yesterday is now in the header for anyone that missed it.

[blue square] 04/2/2024 13:20

The shorters will be taking
notice in anycase and will
be making their decisions.
Its good that Rusty comes
from an old west virginian
family who have been in
O&G for a 100 years,they
clearly have connections.

[blue square] 04/2/2024 13:11

Its a civil case, it has not
been heard Yet, the plantiffs
want it to go to a jury trial.
But in anycase they talk
about the law in the"present"
so they would have to change
the submission,if the new
amendment is ratified.

[leoneobull] 04/2/2024 11:40

Source https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/legislative_session/wv-house-panel-oks-bill-viewed-as-legal-shield-for-nations-largest-gas-and-oil/article_5b1ac0bd-da75-5bf8-baa5-af55a1df89b5.htmlJust use a VPN and pretend you are in the US to access.

[leoneobull] 04/2/2024 11:40

WV House panel OKs bill viewed as legal shield for nation's largest gas and oil well ownerBy Mike Tony [e-mail] 1, 2024A West Virginia House of Delegates panel has approved legislation that would loosen gas well-plugging regulation and threatens to bar legal action to address abandoned wells in a state with approximately 15,000 of them.The Energy and Manufacturing Committee on Thursday approved House Bill 5076, which would prohibit state code requiring wells presumed to be abandoned to be plugged promptly by the operator to be used as a cause of legal action by any person on their own behalf or in the interests of others.

[bluemango] 04/2/2024 11:36

A legal point that would be useful to see clarified - does a later change to the law via 5076 affect a pre-existing case?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/2/2024 09:45

XD 29.02.2024 is getting closer, shorts will be running for cover.. ;o)

[blue square] 04/2/2024 09:11

There is a class action against
DEC by west Virginia landowners
it was based on they failed to
plug disused wells, going against
West Virginia law.
If they had won the class action
DEC would have been bankrupted.
West Virginia have now changed
the Laws to protect Dec from this
class action.

[kaos3] 04/2/2024 08:55

After reading legal virginia proposition pdf i admit i do not understand it completely. Which line exactly is so huge? A translation to the common language would be wellcome. As i see it it just makes fog clear but can not see huge change for dec treating their plugging policy differently?

[blue square] 03/2/2024 22:30

The share wont fall below £9 again
after monday, the news reguarding
the change of the plugging laws
in west virginia is massive
It will render the court case
Mcavoy vrs diversified energy
more or less obsolete
The whole case of the plaintiffs
falls apart.
Confidence will come back.

[scrwal] 03/2/2024 21:51

The quarterly div payment is c$42m - will adjust downwards for buybacks. However this means that the company has completely ignored the 40% criteria as FCF on their metrics for the interims was $81m so why has the company increased the dividends for 2023 when the FCF doesn't cover them.
Rusty has always wanted a progressive policy but in trying to do this he has ignored his 40% rule. At the levels of FCF used by OakB the 2023 annual FCF is $160m but the dividends are coming in at that level.
There has to be a significant re-rate of the dividends but this has never been mentioned by the company so will there be a further big hit to the share price when it's announced - market has pushed the price down but there is scope for further downwards pressure. Will the company even refer to this when the 2023 Finals are issued.

[podgyted] 03/2/2024 21:09

Reading the stuff here:-

Do buy backs

Do acquisitions.

Where is the cash coming from?

BWDIK

[podgyted] 03/2/2024 20:04

One plausible reason why the big shorters may accept the Feb XD margin call is they're expecting a discounted cash raise.

[podgyted] 03/2/2024 19:58

"Nearly $570m of acquisitions over 2 years doesn’t feel marginal to me which suggests Rusty has plans for something large(r). Tiene los grandes cojones..."

Where's he going to get the cash?

An equity raise in the near future seems suicidal.

[bountyhunter] 03/2/2024 19:43

More from the Oak Bloke this evening:

"Rusty speaks to an “extremely difficult 2023”. Lots of redemptions, high interest rates. He speaks of 2022 and 2023 that were “marginal years” for growth (!) and 2024 is now the year to acquire assets. Nearly $570m of acquisitions over 2 years doesn’t feel marginal to me which suggests Rusty has plans for something large(r). Tiene los grandes cojones..."
...
...
"The Stock price is a good bargain for us” he says. “Buy backs are a good use for some of our capital”...

[elpirata] 03/2/2024 17:24

Im not surprised, WV State is protecting its own interests here as without DEC's NLVL well plugging operations theyd be on the hook for maybe hundreds of orphaned wells yearly without having the resources for plugging & capping.

Watch out for melting snowflakes ;-)