Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 21:28

Closed in New York at $11.90 = £9.34 vs the £9.04 close in London.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 19:49

I agree, and it would make a good movie. Gripping stuff.

New York is on it's way again this evening, let's hope this is not another false dawn.

[leoneobull] 01/2/2024 19:32

Either that or we will see more so decline and a 40% dividend. You could not make it up.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 19:19

The New York chart does look a bit like a coiled spring tonight! (others may see it differently). As M&G have been selling their stake and maybe nearly finished as suggested by Oak Bloke today then possibly we won't have too much longer to wait. The backstop is the XD 87.5c on 29 Feb.

[leoneobull] 01/2/2024 19:16

You'd have thought with a 30% dividend the Yanks would pile in and send this to 20 usd

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 16:56

Right on queue in New York lol..

[aleman] 01/2/2024 15:56

Volume of 200k or so here but already over 50k in US. There's probably not going to be a great deal of difference today.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 01/2/2024 15:52

Plans to drill in Tanos when the price gets better came with the acquisition.

[mindthestash] 01/2/2024 15:40

Time to buy. Resource depletion arguments over assumptions can be served up to most drillers and diggers. Contract pricing and hedging can ameliorate and exacerbate profits and losses. DEC business model of stewarding older resources runs right up against these issues and are vulnerable to these arguments, however they have proven to be adept at it. As with all in this sector divis can and should be variable. Still a good business and potentially very profitable. A buy at this price certainly

[imnotspartacus] 01/2/2024 15:07

So from the recent trading update…
“4Q 2023 average production of 777 MMcfepd (129.5 Mboepd)” and from a sale back in June last year for just 3000 boepd “June, DEC sold a package of non-operated wells in Oklahoma and Texas raising US$40mln from the divestment of around 200 non-core wells, producing around 3,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.” Makes you wonder

[kaos3] 01/2/2024 14:18

And they also can infill drill. They never said how much but that they are able to

[johnhemming] 01/2/2024 14:13

Another problem with "decline" figures is that all we know is how much gas has actually been produced. Were I to be running this sort of business I would be inclined to produce less marginal gas when prices are low simply by the act of not turning the taps/valves full on.

[johnhemming] 01/2/2024 14:09

>Might be time to dump now
Its a business with perhaps a 5-10 year visibility. This year is predictably worse than next year. More importantly we know now next year is better than this year.

We can even do reasonable calculations as to the next few years.

Why is now a good time to sell?

[scepticalinvestor] 01/2/2024 13:47

Might be time to dump now

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 12:28

More from the Oak Bloke..



I'll add the link to the header when I get a chance but time for lunch now!

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 12:14

Anyone who thought it was relevant will have looked it up by now.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 12:06

We still don't know what the dividend yield was cut from and if anywhere near 30%, that was my point and one that I don't consider to be irrelevant in the context. Anyway there is no point in arguing endlessly about this so I'm not going to continue asking the same question.

[bluemango] 01/2/2024 11:21

I think we're all agreed the raison d'etre for DEC is as a financial instrument offering a reliable, high dividend income and that any reduction, regardless of the yield for recent buyers, would be very undesirable.

Fordtin makes a very valid point that the yield for existing lth's is more important a consideration than that for people fortunate enough to be buying at current prices.

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 11:14

You asked "I get the point but what did Gresham cut from to?"

Gresham cut their current financial year’s dividend by 25%, with a vague promise/threat to ‘recalibrate’ future dividends.

If DEC did the same it would result in a reduction of 21.875c (17.18p) per share gross. 14.65p per share net of 15% wht. 12.03p per share net of 30% tax.

Every shareholder will be receiving a yield based on the price of their personal share purchase. I don't know what your yield is any more than you could possibly know mine. All we know is our own personal yield and the yield of any newcomers to the share register.

If you still think the yield for anyone who purchased in the closing auction last night is of huge relevance, I leave you to look it up.


Regardless of personal yields, a dividend cut is still a dividend cut.

[johnhemming] 01/2/2024 11:13

The essential problem with decline forecasts is that gas wells normally start of on a hyperbolic decline curve and then shift to an exponential decline curve. Unless you know precisely where a well is on this then knowing the final exponential decline percentage is guesswork.

The fact is that there is a long tail of decline which is useful gas if properly managed.

Is it reasonable to expect the 10% decline figure to reduce to 5% for older wells. That does not to me seem an unreasonable conclusion. The recent Tanos II purchase were still in a relatively rapid decline rate to start out with.

If it is possible to get bonds secured on the decline figures someone will have audited the assumptions and predictions in some detail.

These predictions are easier to make on older wells.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 10:50

That depends on what I asked you which you didn't bother to check. The relevance of the scale is obvious when you make a comparison.

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 10:49

And the relevance is?

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 10:48

As you quoted it I thought you might have done that.

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 10:45

Bounty, if you think it's of some relevance, you could look that information up just as easily as I can. I can't be bothered because I just don't see the relevance, or even guess where you might be going with that line of enquiry.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2024 10:39

Keep posting Topaz! The majority here appreciate your posts.

Meanwhile the price has gone blue!