Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johnhemming] 14/4/2022 10:29

I don't mind being described as a tree hugger. I do think we need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, but that requires energy. Fertiliser is made in part from gas. Hence we need to produce gas for some years.

DEC have reduced announced methane emissions from about 0.9% of production to around 0.3% and are working hard on that issue.

Knocking press stories will always get more attention than positive stories.

[aleman] 14/4/2022 09:37

3 days ago, I posted as the Dec 2022 contract became the first to go through $7. Now, all 2022 contracts are above $7 as they have continued to rise.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Yesterday, I posted the lowest priced contract in the series - April 2025. That is only up marginally since then. Short futures are still shooting up while mids and longs have calmed but not quite plateaued yet..


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[sunbed44] 14/4/2022 09:03

114 is still decent but this does seem to be a tad out of favour. Strongly recommended in so many good places but every now and again re get a bit of a kicking. Not sure whether to get a few more at mid teens as have quite a lot here now and am in predominantly for long term divi so share price does not really concern me as long as I dont lose on my capital and my average is still about 108/9 so am in pocket there at the moment as well.

[bluemango] 14/4/2022 07:54

Yield at this price is approx 11.1%.

[janhar] 14/4/2022 07:50

They keep trying with this story but the shares always bounce back up shortly afterwards. I doubled my holding at 94.5 last time this story reared it's head and am glad I did. Great yield, great earnings visibility plus 20 per cent upside, what's not to like.

[carcosa] 14/4/2022 07:43

Have seen companies in the past try to explain why tree-huggers are wrong and it usually ends up badly. Provides more press coverage for the subject and those groups that criticise can basically say what they want using any emotive language they choose and inconvenient facts can be ignored.

With a 12-24 hour news cycle, responses by a company will never get the coverage it deserves; and generally the company responses have to be factually and legally based which makes boring news.

Unless it hurts the company's share price significantly then it's usually best not to respond.

[imnotspartacus] 14/4/2022 07:43

Gas still on the up & up!

[redtom1] 14/4/2022 05:13

I spoke to DEC last night and they have no intention of issuing a response.
'Ignore it' seems to be their strategy this time.

[podgyted] 14/4/2022 01:51

My take is this:-

The Bloomberg report crashed DEC @ 20% going from memory - at least intraday.

This took us down a tad over 2.5%

Todays instance could be construed as a positive as it demonstrates the market is not interested anymore. A risk removed.

Perhaps its time to stop defending and simply ignore.

Hopefully not famous last words.

[lab305] 13/4/2022 23:04

Well another scaremongering report from an organisation bent on the destruction of the oil and gas industry. The main thrust after reading much of it is that DEC cannot afford to decommission it's estate of wells in the future. The chief problems with it seem to be that there is firstly no reference to rising gas prices and the large swathe of wells that they condemn as uneconomic are certainly no longer so.
Secondly they cast doubt on DEC's ability to plug wells at DEC's stated figures but do acknowledge they have adopted a cost saving way of doing the job. I skipped fairly quickly through but didn't see a reference to DEC's own decommissioning teams. This of course could develop into a helpful revenue stream if hired by other operators.
Thirdly the report seems to predict a straight linear decline in production based on the latest year's rate from DEC but we know that the rate of production loss slows markedly over time in conventional and shale wells also.
There are plenty of other holes but just one more. The report implies that DEC is lying about the level of leaks throughout it's estate since the reported levels have dropped substantially of late. The company would state that before it equipped its operatives with detection equipment it just took a standard average estimated figure and used that. Subsequently it has now discovered leaks were not that bad and the new detectors have also enabled them to detect and rectify leaky wells. Hey presto the leakage figures have dropped.
It's a difficult one and it boils down to who you believe. The report looks very professional and clever banding figures , diagrams and appendix everywhere but its underlying intentions are thinly veiled.

[gary1966] 13/4/2022 21:34

Skinny,

Not a lot on it but here it is:

[imnotspartacus] 13/4/2022 20:11

Nothing wrong with smashed-avocado-on-toast yummy!

[skinny] 13/4/2022 19:44

Aleman / anyone - can you point me to a financial calendar - I can't seem to find one.

[3800] 13/4/2022 19:41

Thank you Flayla for bringing the Ohio river valley institute article to my attention. As you will have found nobody likes the bearer of bad news, and I did find the bit “legal Ponzi scheme” rather harsh. It did seem like they were almost referring to a different company to DECs sustainability report which came out today. How much (if anything) do you know about the Ohio river valley institute?

[farrugia] 13/4/2022 14:04

*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaone
·
14m
*Surging U.S. Natural Gas Prices Making Another Run at $7, Up 3.5% at $6.920 Amid Low Inventories

[farrugia] 13/4/2022 12:03

well i did buy more ha

[cassini] 13/4/2022 12:01

I was waiting for another attack from the smashed-avocado-on-toast types - they seem to have a tripwire built-in at these price levels.

Next tactic: 'DEC launches chemical weapons attack' or 'DEC has Weapons of Mass Destruction', etc...

[1knocker] 13/4/2022 10:59

Google Ohio River Valley Institute and read 'Our Vision'. These people are a bunch of eco warriors. Presumably they swoon at the thought of a cow farting, and their 'conclusions' drive their fact finding rather than the other way about.

Its wearisome, but if it provides another good top up opportunity (as did the Glasgow carnival and the Bloomberg knife job) we shall benefit from it.

[aleman] 13/4/2022 10:54

The main recommendation is a small levy (3 to 7 cents) on everyone's production for an Abandoned Well Fund. Good. That is likely to be the simplest way to deal with a large part of the problem. Get on with it!

What does criticising not writing down assets in years gone by matter when gas was under $3 achieve. The price has rebounded and its not an issue. It's just padding.

What's the point of claiming decommissioning costs of $30k to $75k in the industry if DEC's specialist team is hitting $25k and possibly lower? It's almost DEC's raison d'etre to buy low producing wells in scale and drive down management and clean-up costs with the scale of operations. To then criticise them for being more efficient than the rest is bonkers. It's a relatively new industry, it will probably get cheaper still.

Then there's decline rates. Every time they make an acquisition, decline rates will change and they will fall as they age. You can't extrapolate a 9% decline. It does not go down in a straight line! It will taper off in the longer term and that's part of the model. Deliberately misleading in such a report begs a lot of questions.

There are some good points in there but there's a lot of rubbish, too. The bear case is all about very questionable assumptions but there's no reason bullish assumptions should not be questioned either. The levy for an Abandoned Well Fund should be implemented immediately. At less than 1% cost to consumers, it will provide some longer term environmental security for the whole industry while assumptions and specifics for each company can be given greater consideration. Why has it not happened yet?

[podgyted] 13/4/2022 10:48

At the stage where, as a holder, you just have to accept this is going to be regurgitated every few months or move on.

I understand the issues but they tend to miss the point that the vast majority of problem wells have no owner - but I guess it would make less interesting reading if there was no-one to kick.

With gas firmly on the front foot as the world finally recognises its value as a transition energy source and the importance of energy security finally hitting home I'm, like carcosa, pondering a top-up.

[keesp1966] 13/4/2022 10:46

It’s the same message as a few months ago. Nothing new. Effect on share price is much smaller than last time. I got the idea that the report is not based on real ESG concern but set up or rebranded by shorters…̷0;lol. Nice buy opportunity before new acquisitions will come in!

[carcosa] 13/4/2022 10:24

"it seems very limited in detail" - It's a total of 87 pages. Lots of detail!
The appendices are more useful to review though IMO

However I'd say it's taking a whole bunch of assumptions and extrapolating way into the future. Overall hogwash IMO but over the next few days might present a buying opportunity as it did before.