Distil Share Discussion Threads

[tommyjnewton] 15/3/2017 13:26

Re Last post:
Don Goulding already has 10 million shares

[onedayrodders] 15/3/2017 11:50

indeed someuwin

Ticks a lot of boxes for me here with perhaps just one missing ... the CEO hasn't bought any shares.

[someuwin] 15/3/2017 11:46

Nice and quiet here.

[acdc52] 14/3/2017 08:34

Today TM is going to start Brexit, shouldn't have too much negative effect on Aim listed companies. Touchwood.

[dietcoke197] 13/3/2017 20:42

The volume behind today's rise suggests we are not done with this move yet

[berny3] 13/3/2017 16:06

Cheers Dante - be interesting to see when figures are released

Beginning to look at contributions and multiples of to get a feel of a suitable market cap. Not entirely sure of my calcs on this so won't post anything up.

[dante17] 13/3/2017 15:55

Final turnover may be somewhere in between our estimates Berny but I think u've been a touch overcautious. I factored in wetherspoons since we know that's a fact and I'm being quite generous with Blavod too. My turnover is higher than yours but profit is slightly lower because there are still listing and other group costs which r not insignificant. I'll be happy with a maiden profit even if it's below 50k. It'll still be a watershed moment!

[berny3] 13/3/2017 15:34

Cheers Dante - my figures are a little lower.

I have not factored in Wetherspoons or US.

£1.7mln FY TO
£602K Contribution
£75K profit

Assumptions
Q3 trading update gave 71% increase in revenue and 88% increase in advertising cost.
Both these rates I have carried through.
I have kept same GP as H2 2016
Carried +12.25% increase in Administration cost (increase H1 2016 over H1 2017)

[dante17] 13/3/2017 14:13

Berny, just extrapolating from the known quarterly growth rates and the expected Q4 growth rate, which should be higher than the previous two quarters (Q1 was pretty much flat if u remember). I'm not including revenue from shipments of RedLeg to the US but I am assuming that Blavod has been restocked that side of the pond (first shipment was almost two years ago now).

[onedayrodders] 13/3/2017 12:57

dietcoke .. I'm guessing but £50m minimum for Red Leg, ok not in the Grey Goose category but if Red Leg continues to push into the top ten and sales keep going, then Bacardi might want to take them out along with others who will want to challenge Bacardi.

Just IMHO

[dietcoke197] 13/3/2017 12:42

So, what exactly do people think RedLeg is currently worth if sold?

Sipsmith £50 M
Grey Goose £1.5Bn (wow)

The rum market is smaller than vodka and gin and redleg is a bit more mass market than the above.
However, if they can be seen to be growing the US market in any meaningful way in the next 2 years, then £50m is not a crazy sum at all.

[acdc52] 13/3/2017 12:37

£30m market capitalisation by the end of April and £100m by the end of 2017. Sky is the limit when big boys kick-in.

[baticle] 13/3/2017 11:55

I agree ODR what kind of value could you give to Red Leg alone... another example is Sipsmith gin that went for a tidy sum

[baticle] 13/3/2017 11:52

That would seem about right on a revenue increase of about 100% on the year, about 2.1-2.2 m Sales and profits in the 100k + region

[onedayrodders] 13/3/2017 11:50

£15m mkt cap would be much nearer fair value that £10m for sure and that discounts the growing threat of a bid for Red Leg from one of the major big boys.

For any newbies today, watch the Don Goulding video above for a simple explanation of the business model and why its currently undervalued. Plus the Grey Goose story which underlines the potential value of bids from successful brands.

ODR

[dietcoke197] 13/3/2017 11:45

I agree Dante,

I can't see scenario that correlates with the updates we have which does not produce an annual profit in my projections.


My projection is 150-175k. But could be as low as 24k or as high as 240k

[berny3] 13/3/2017 11:38

Dante - can you run through your revenue fig estimate.

[dante17] 13/3/2017 10:40

With the end of the current fiscal year just days away, I'm looking at just over 2 million pounds in revenue for fiscal 2017 and a maiden profit, albeit a small one. The above revenue prediction is without the initial order fill for RedLeg for the US market, which until it gets announced I'm assuming hasn't been accounted for yet.With a maiden profit, however small, and a breakthrough for RedLeg in America, 3p or 15 million pounds market cap is very realistic and we should see it quite soon.

[11_percent] 13/3/2017 10:30

Talked too soon.....

[11_percent] 13/3/2017 10:27

Got themm at 2.2 so not too bad.

[11_percent] 13/3/2017 10:23

Profit takers coming in.

[onedayrodders] 13/3/2017 10:23

don't do it 11% they will mug you off

[11_percent] 13/3/2017 10:18

I can not buy, have to place "fill or kill" order.

[onedayrodders] 13/3/2017 09:48

anytime .. S U W

I was researching this over the weekend and then also saw your mention on the OPTI thread. Our paths seem to cross many times.

Really like the newsflow here from the last 6 months and the experience of the guy Don Goulding in charge here. Simple low cost business model and potential for a big brand sale.

Mkt Cap is cheap IMHO and seems under the radar judging by volumes and posts.
That is also a good thing !

ODR

[someuwin] 13/3/2017 09:16

Well done rodders!