Using an Aviva share price of 473p that makes the offer 270.31 including up to 5p dividend.0.2867 times 473p is 135.61pCash fixed at 129.7pUp to 5p divided Is 270.31Unless I have got my maths wrong |
Plus 5p div |
aviva at 475p values the bid at 270.88p now. |
Latest News - Jefferies says that the merger between Aviva and Direct Lime will be completed , therefore any doubt that Aviva will not go ahead is just out of the question . According the combined motor insurance is only 14% and not 20% as originally mentioned , therefore CMa will sure to approved this merger . Jefferies recommended BUY rating on Aviva and raised Aviva share price from £4.76 to £5.60 |
Shorts above 0.5% now ZERO
Qube closed their short down to 0.07% on Friday |
The first step is for a "possible offer" to become a firm offer and my understanding is that AV have until 25 December to do that assuming one is made. |
What's the time frame for this deal to be completed, assuming it passes regulatory tests? |
I think most people are aware of who the serial down ticker is now.
Please just ignore it and concentrate on the matter, DLG, in hand.
Thanks all |
I think she's bored and finds it a fun pastime...so go ahead and tick me down love. |
oh the guy that marks everyone with a thumbs down is here ... |
Is there quite a danger that the deal doesn't go through due to competitions competitions and markets getting involved ? |
And on top of that they might even get jobs with AV., anyway they will be laughing all the way to the bank that's for sure! |
And they will probably have extended notice periods in their contracts which will have to be paid up. I worked for a company taken over by NU in the 90s and the exec contracts were amended weeks before the takeover became known to require 12 months notice. The compensation for the notice period included another 12 months pension accretion, options and other fringe benefits as well as core salary. |
Yes they're loaded up with options and it's usual practice for it to be written in to the exercise conditions for director options that in the event of a takeover the options crystallize at the offer price, so they are not likely to do badly out of being taken over in that respect given the options held imv. |
Perhaps those directors have nice offers within their contracts, in the event of a takeover. Its fairly normal to get paid for failure, so there can’t be a problem with being paid for getting no results at all. |
I guess that if they offer at least some of the four directors that came from Aviva jobs that might help facilitate DD. Even if they don't they will be motivated towards a speedy outcome with significant option holdings to crystallize at the offer price. |
I do not see them closing the deal without a deep dive into the skeleton cupboard, that would be nuts and not how MnA is progressed, we know what was in there last time somebody looked and cancelled the dividend then put PJs head on a stick..
Audit 1st, make sure it all stacks up, proceed to closing.. :o) |
But surely that's all in the past and this could all be carried out post-acquisition with the same result
Identify what went wrong
Make sure controls/checks are in place to avoid repetition
And move on
Simple really |
Good luck 👍 |
I agree the timescale is tight for full due diligence but it is possible to focus on the main concerns. If I was Aviva my main focus (other than the usual core financials and material contracts) would be a decent audit of the large claims which caused the past problems. I would want to do a rapid audit of a representative sample of these claims from across the account and prior years. This would involve access to each claims file and interrogation of the operational claims management responsible for them. As this would take a while it is why I expect the announcement of going firm to be the week after next. If Aviva do not do such an audit they are fools - and that I do not believe. |
I am here to make a quick profit on this arbitrage opportunity therefore will not wait or hold for deal to complete . although there is some risk ie AV might pull out before 25 Dec or CMA might block this deal but the risk can be predicted .
However , Aviva will go ahead with the takeover offer as it has lots to gain further it won’t came out with a joint RNS last Friday . As for CMA , it would pass too as both Aviva and Direct Line have just about 20% of the market share and Admiral is pushed into second with 10 %. I would be worried if the market share is 40% or over . 20% is only one fifth and it won’t have too much of a dominant influence on prices and scuffle competition .imo |
Stevensupertrader, so you'd sell out at 275p or hold on till the deal is done? |
Easy money (hopefully) let's see. |
Adam Winslow and his team would still be running DLG after the merger through and even his turn around plan on DLG might be fulfilled . No proper due diligence can be carried out in a this short time frame for our information ,therefore Aviva needs Adam Winslow who already 6 months with DLG . |
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