Adam Winslow would definitely play a role in this merger deal due to the limited time frame for a proper due diligence on DLG to be carried out . This takeover deal is to me a ‘stitch’ up deal as DLG major shareholders wanted this merger to happened and won’t support a medium term turn around .
One can see that no RNS was out on the 2nd offer of £2.61 which was out on the 5th Dec ( Thursday late afternoon ) but then the next morning on the 6th Dec( last Friday)an improved 3rd offer of £2.75 was announced . Aviva and DLG came out to gave a joint RNS at 7am of the preliminary agreement agreed , Therefore between the afternoon 5Th Dec and the early morning of 6th Dec a closed door deal was shake hands .
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wba1 got to agree with you about the auditors.
A lot of the work is done in India - about as far away from finding answers as they can get.
Its just a box ticking exercise nowadays - have we looked at the required sample size ? Tick?
Move on/move out , collect fee. |
StevenST; whilst I agree this is highly likely to proceed I will be surprised if it is confirmed in the coming week rather than w/c 16/12. They would have to cut a lot of corners to finish up in the data room in a week. Just saying so people avoid worrying if it does not happen in the coming week but I will be happy if it does. |
AV takeover of DLG will definitely pass CMA - Only a few days ago , CMA approved Vodaphone and Three merger and both these companies had 61% coverage of the mobile network. This deal to me is 99% sealed and done . imo .
Any fall in the DLG share price before the Aviva’s confirmation next week , is a golden opportunity to add. |
That was the indicative amount.The fixed amount is the conversion factor of 0.28xx a shares per dlg share.That said, the av. share price really needs to tank to make any marked difference to the bid price. |
Was it not based on a previous closing price, therefore what happens to AV. share price doesn't matter? |
bid now worth 272p on aviva price drop. |
The price was in a tight channel today, Hi/Lo 257.8-249.20 [3.4%/mid].
Volume 27.5million vs average of 3.53million = 7.8*
Those two numbers are awkward bed-fellows, there were one minute periods today with up to 2million volume, yet the px barely shifted. Suspect there is stand-off between 'take the cash now and sell limit orders' vs pick up some more now at a discount to full-offer and carry the risk it falls through.
Interesting price chart, about as straight a line as I've seen in a while, especially with that large and spikey volume. |
True
Maybe just linked to Aviva drop post 1500 now 1.2% down on the day?
Creates a generous arbitrage opportunity? |
Nothing in this world to make money without any little risk - same as there is no free lunch . |
Also added 5000 just before close but auction was not encouraging.
Hoping it opens stronger on Monday. |
Who say so that you can’t buy 10000 DLG shares . I just bought at 15 seconds before closing another lot of 10000 shares at £2.50945 from ii for your information.
Even 100000 shares- ii will buy for you if you have the available funds in ii account.
Share Price is now in the bargain zone , although there is some risk but the risk is just due diligence which as I mentioned Adam Winslow would have sounded or blown his whistle and won’t last week said he thought the st offer was opportunistic and undervalue DLG and wanted the shareholders to back him for the turn around if there was hunky lanky in the books . Now that the offer is agreed and accepted by both parties - is just the due diligence that all takeover needed to undertake - to prove to the bankers and cover the AV CEO and the Board - imo |
Closed 10.4% below indicative offer.
Appalling auction yet again.
Realise deal’s not all signed and sealed but……? |
I meant to say 10000 |
Can't buy 100000 on II |
Certainly is and building.
Maybe close once shorts are out?
Unusually large discount to offer. |
Arbitrage trade. |
 EdmondJ; hostile bids are, almost by definition, without access to the targets books. However they usually come with the caveat that the bid is subject to due diligence except, occasionally, where a bidding war occurs. This is not in that category. To suggest someone will bid for a company without due diligence is akin to proposing to buy a house (in this case a house with substantial past problems similar to subsidence) without a survey.
StevenST; I agree. Winslow would have to be completely incompetent to not have closed the big holes and would be mad to let a competitor in to find a major problem. It is the unexpected which sometimes bites in these processes. Issues being identified which the board are blissfully unaware of. I do not expect it but it is a factor in a risk discount. As for internal and external auditors. The internal people are usually behind any problem so that is not a reassurance. The external auditors have been shown time and again in other companies to have done a weak job. And the analysts who pour over results have as much understanding of insurance as they have of medieval English (in fact many will have a better understanding of the latter after a classics degree). I do not expect problems but it cannot be entirely discounted at this stage, hence the price. |
The Aviva deal, a mix of cash, shares, and a small dividend, delivers a 73% premium to Direct Line’s pre-offer price, so nobody can really complain. |
The Aviva deal, a mix of cash, shares, and a small dividend, delivers a 73% premium to Direct Line’s pre-offer price, so nobody can really complain. |
This period is due diligence and should be ok as DLG CEO was in his job since Feb/Mar therefore if anything fishy - he would have blown the whistle quick and loud , plus there are internal and external auditors combed through the books when H1 result was reported . This is just a routine formality of the takeover process - imo . |
There have, historically, been many firm offers made - including hostile, above boards of directors that were subject to due diligence.
A possible hostile offer has never existed and by definition would be ridiculous. |
EdmondJ clearly does not understand the bid process. It would be a firm offer had DLG engaged with Aviva before now and opened the books (and other matters). Since they declined to engage any bid at this point is provisional as DLG will now make the information available to Aviva in a data room so that they can confirm that the basis on which they are making the bid is correct. This is nothing new. I have been in data rooms for possible bids and the process is pretty exhaustive which is why I expect it to take us close to the deadline before the bid is confirmed. It not only involves reviewing the financial reports but also involves a questioning process to get under the numbers. Additionally any material contracts, such as motability, will be reviewed. Most importantly I suspect, Aviva will want to interrogate operational management (not the board) on how things like claims reserves have been set and exactly what remediation action was taken (and the underlying assumptions) to close the black hole which led to Penny James leaving. And, of course, Aviva will be very interested to look at assets and valuations for things like Green Flag which are not part of their own core expertise. |
The actual cash portion of £1.347 represents about 48% ( or about half ) of the AV offer value . This is an extremely good deal - only 10 days ago - DLG share price was £1.52 . I have bought earlier 35000 shares at £2.522 and hope to make a killing as opportunity never come often
I sold earlier last week after the 1st offer at £2.282 and now even 24p more than I sold I think is an opportunity not to be missed . 😃 |
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