Direct line has provided approx 250p in dividends since it floated in 2012. It's initial shareprice was 203p so it's final shareprice will be 30% higher after it's 12 year history.I suspect it may take Aviva a lot longer to get it's money back for this offer.Aviva investors must be feeling fairly sick. |
But I guess it would be fine if a massive foreign insurer took over because that would be “inward direct investment in the UK”. |
I agree LLB, I'll be holding as well at least with the price at this level. I assume that the firm offer still needs to be made before 25th which should reduce the risk premium and I can't see it being left that long. |
DLG Boarand major shareholders have accepted this proposed offer by Aviva - Aviva needs to confirm it and sign in the dotted line by 25 Dec. then everything is done . Therefore until the FAT LADY sings then the curtain is down and the show is ended., so there is still a very tiny risk that Aviva might ………;.. but very unlikely therefore every chip of mine is place on Red as the ball is on the red number on the rollette wheel however the wheel still slowing spinning and until the wheel stops then the payout is made. |
At 252 the risk discount to the offer price at 9% does look too big. I assume Aviva are now entering a data room and will take close to the remaining 2 weeks and a bit to confirm the bid, but some risk does remain (as well as time cost to completion) so a 5-6% risk/time discount is justified meaning it should be 260 or so, and I would take that. Some risk does remain, especially if DLG still have some weakness or uncertainty around their prior year reserves so I do not want to be greedy.
The only disappointment in all this is that we do not get another bite at the cherry as happened after Ageas. With no other focused retail general insurers other than Sabre on the market the game is pretty much over in this sub sector. Good luck to all and enjoy the profits. |
The proposed deal still has to get competition authority clearance, although presumably Av. has already sought some initial guidance?
(So long as the politicians don't get involved, it'll be fine!) |
Plantaroma
11/10
Win or Each Way
1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
12:35 Sedgefield
12:35, Today
Takt De Touques
4/9
Win or Each Way
1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
13:10 Sedgefield
13:10, Today
Foster's Fortune
7/2
Win or Each Way
1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
14:20 Sedgefield
14:20, Today
Pure Surf
17/2
Win or Each Way
1/4 odds - places 1,2
14:53 Sedgefield
14:53, Today
Lady Kluck
5/4
Win or Each Way
1/4 odds - places 1,2
15:27 Sedgefield
15:27, Today |
#Bountyhunter, that has worked out well or will do for holders, 253 pence is not enough to shake shares out of my hands this morning, not with 275 pence to come and the next DLG 5 pence dividend in May..
There will of course be holders selling into the news this morning, once they clear we should push on again towards a stronger price..
See what the market offers nearer the AV offer price perhaps, there is the opportunity cost to consider if bigger dividends can be booked at a discount between now and completion, otherwise (tbc but H1-2025), a PX into AV stock and 7% income is fine by me.. :o) |
The offer is £1.297 cash and 0.2867 Aviva shares plus 5p dividend on completion of the deal - valuing DLG at £2.75 per share |
Topped up myself always a chance of another bidder now the sale sign has been put up |
253/254, some way to go! Maybe I'll top up. |
Yes it will rapidly rise to approaching 270p imv (assuming AV. doesn't open lower which it it may do) as although effectively agreed there will be a small risk premium. |
Waiting for the dotted lines to be sign off . - Good Luck for those that hang on and waited for this . Happy Days |
Deal is sealed and done imo as RNS announced an joint agreement between Both Aviva and Direct Line Offer of £2.75 (mix of cash £1.297 and and shares)Using Aviva Share Prive at closed of trading yesterday at £4.89.7 -
DLG will jump at start of opening bell in 10 minutes time .
👍🏻 👍🏻 |
Good result - not much more to say :) |
Okay then I can drop 5p off, 275p it is, deal. Certainly is a very merry Xmas, lovely jumbly, what a result for holders, especially those who held out for the right price, well done, patience is a virtue. |
There we go, worth being patient and not taking the 235 market bid last week and it looks like holders would get the next 5 pence DLG final in May as well if you stay the course before a PX into AV stock..Nice result for Xmas.. |
Yeah it seems a fair and reasonable deal for both sides.
I wish I hadn't trimmed into strength now but after the fiasco in the spring it made a lot of sense at the time.
Good luck all 👍🏻 |
Well done holders. Thought I had done well exiting on the spike yesterday at 251p. I expect this morning you can get out now around 261p (about a 5% discount to the offer price). Are there still risks the CMA might be awkward now regarding market shares of the combined entity?
And thanks to wba1 for his insightful posts. |
It's virtually as good as an offer as the BoD have said they will recommend it. Just needs the formalities now, as I said there will be a small risk premium, I would anticipate this to quickly approach 270 approx. at the open but fluctuate depending on the value of the AV share component. |
Huge thanks from me to WBA1's excellent analysis and explanation - and sharing of trades. |
could another bidder come in now ?? statement says possible offer nothing signed |
I suspect that we will open 265p .This is still not an offer. Price will fall back slowly during the day |
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