Diageo Share Discussion Threads

[mcunliffe1] 16/11/2023 14:58

But does that matter?
I doubt the board would move to the U.S. and I suspect London would remain as a secondary listing.

Perhaps the share price will increase with a greater presence on US markets.

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2023 14:54

Yup, that's the direction of travel for sure.

[jonwig] 16/11/2023 14:24

US primary listing?

[mcunliffe1] 16/11/2023 14:22

anhar: thanks, as ever, for the update on the dollar aspect. I was aware of the move but not the dates.

Whenever a foreign exchange takes place an amount is lost to whomsoever provides the exchange service. I see this all the time on my Barclaycard when I'm in the US in particular - but elsewhere of course.

This has to mean a reduction in real terms in our divi. payment offset, we hope, by a strong dollar or/and weak pound causing a greater number of pennies for the stated cents dividend.

In my experience over the past years the pound is weak and the dollar strong.

[anhar] 16/11/2023 13:51

They have switched to US$ accounting from the current financial year onwards. Not sure what effect that will have but they say that on last year's figures it would have resulted in a positive impact on operating profit of approx $35m.

As an income investor I'm interested in the effect on divis which will be in $, so that the FX rate will affect the sterling value as with several UK shares in my income port that account in $. They have in the past stated their aim is to increase divis each year whilst targetting cover of 1.8-2.2. Presumably this policy will continue with the move to $ accounting.

The interim accounts due on 30 Jan 24 will be the first in dollars.

[jubberjim] 16/11/2023 10:39

Averaged down at 2822

Looking forward to xmas

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2023 10:06

Laurence, sample a bottle of Guinness Foreign Extra!, that packs a punch.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/11/2023 10:01

#Essential investor, indeed, the TBA market grows every year with the global population, and that is only going 1 way, all DGE need to do is capture their share, but Guinness zero is a no from me, full phat all the way.. :o)

[essentialinvestor] 16/11/2023 09:33

Monty, the total alcohol market continues to grow globally and spirits are
growing ahead of the wider market, so people drinking less in a particular country
is not the issue, it's whether DGE can maintain and preferably grow market share.
DGE also offers Guinness 0.0 and alcohol free spirits.

Consumers trading down to supermarket/retailer own brands is the potential area of concern.

[pete160] 15/11/2023 23:15

But if they carry on with the buybacks now that DGE is 12% cheaper than last week it might help prevent the price dropping to £ 25 ?

[montyhedge] 15/11/2023 21:26

What I noticed at golf club and the pub, a lot of customers going off alcohol and going into zero alcohol beer.

[makinbuks] 15/11/2023 18:04

Mcunliffe,

"In my question I wanted to know if you would publicly state those reports you appear to agree with from a position of knowledge or those you disagree with also from a position of knowledge - without compromising your identity and without providing info. that could be considered not to be in the wider market."

No I would not. Indeed I don't follow my company on BB's.

[billy two cocks] 15/11/2023 17:07

Excellent post MCunliffe1.

DGE were merrily buying back millions of shares around the £40 mark.

[mcunliffe1] 15/11/2023 17:02

I read a decent explanation of when a BB may be acceptable on the ABDN thread earlier today. There's been a long-running debate about BB's on that thread and I have to admit, I am not a fan of them.

However, the explanation referred to Warren Buffet and his belief that BB's, whilst acceptable, should only be undertaken when the share price is unacceptably low. A BB should be treated in much the same manner as an investment. Bought low.

I do hope therefore that any proposed DGE BB is indeed cancelled or at least, nothing is bought above about £25.


I still keep coming back to the 20% drop in sales in South America/Caribbean which only provides 11% of the total DGE sales. It's hardly a big enough fall in sales volumes (2.2% overall) to merit this 12% drop in the share price over the past week.

[billy two cocks] 15/11/2023 16:40

Basically this has lost it's fizz, it's been resting on its laurels and dividend yield is poor.

I see no reason to buy my holding (or part of) back at present, sentiment is against this. Too much potential downside to even consider buying at the moment.

Bear in mind that this poor share price performance is in a period of weak GBP. Also bear in mind that the FTSE was quite strong today.

What's the betting that the share buyback will be quietly cancelled and the dividend is reduced?

Do your own research.

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2023 16:00

Phil, watched a bit of the presentation, did not find the CEO particularly convincing.

May be an opportunity tomorrow lower down?.

[philanderer] 15/11/2023 15:54

In the doghouse today 😜

[mcunliffe1] 15/11/2023 15:53

You both (#1942 and #1943) may have misunderstood my point probably because of my wording/structure.

Makinbuks: my use of Tosh was a simplification of ...... the analyst report failed to mention something relevant/mentioned something totally untrue/appears to be supportive of a position contrary to accepted belief etc etc. ie. not exactly as it really is.

I also would not expect you to publicly state that such is untrue/inaccurate etc. whilst explaining that you work at the company being analysed and further, giving your full and real name. Although Mr Smith did - and was fired, and seems to be prospering.

In my question I wanted to know if you would publicly state those reports you appear to agree with from a position of knowledge or those you disagree with also from a position of knowledge - without compromising your identity and without providing info. that could be considered not to be in the wider market.

Essential: you have addressed my issue insofar as large inst. inv. have the budget and the contacts to obtain data that we small guys cannot access - until too late.

Somebody posting anonymously on a board who actually works at the company can provide some assurance or otherwise that a report is good or not good. I feel some of the boards on ADVFN have such posters and whilst I don't ask outright the strong feeling exists.

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2023 14:50

Insider information may not be an accurate description, however sector analysts
and large institutional investors may have access to weekly, monthly market share
data on a number of major product categories.

They arguably have advance warning on trend changes, at least in some cases.

[makinbuks] 15/11/2023 14:45

In my experience a)they don't normally speak "tosh" but its very lazy extrapolation. b) the occasional insightful piece has less to do with insider information so much as either a good understanding of market conditions and how they likely apply (deep segment knowledge) or a more probing look at the published numbers. To show my age, when Terry Smith published his first book and was fired from his job because of it, I worked for one of the companies he wrote about. I wasn't very senior, nor did I have detailed information but enough to recognise what he alleged.

[mcunliffe1] 15/11/2023 12:14

Makinbuks: whilst I would not wish for you to disclose the name of the large company that employs you you said 'occasionally'. When you read a broker/analyst piece about your own company that is tosh do you disclose that publicly?

Equally, do you publicly state those you know to be spot on?

P.I.'s have a tough enough time investing in a market where large funds can have that edge. It would be enlightening to get a real feedback without any compromise in respect of insider trading.

[makinbuks] 15/11/2023 11:41

Generally I agree, but I work for a large public company and occasionally you read an analyst piece and it is spot on. Its knowing as an outsider how to spot the ones that are closer

[anhar] 15/11/2023 11:37

I have no idea where DGE share price is going and in any case, I'm purely a divi income investor with little interest in share prices. But I do know that after many decades of investing, broker forecasts are worthless. As you say, there are so many with a big cap like this that you can probably find one that suits the situation.

But how do you know which one to follow as far as the future goes? Don't make the mistake of thinking that because it looks like Deutsche called it right on DGE for the time being, that they are somehow superior forecasters. Even a stopped clock...

[makinbuks] 14/11/2023 10:40

In a liquid share like this you can usually find some broker comment somewhere to support almost any view, but I'm for once impressed by Deutsche's reading of this. Its not commenting after the event and I fear their assessment of the near future may prove accurate as well