Diageo Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 10/11/2023 15:21

I could be wrong, but took the plunge earlier today at £27.58.
Buffett isn't what he was 10 years ago, but medium/long term this is very cheap.
IMHO - DYOR.

red

[glavey] 10/11/2023 15:14

Good buys?

[philanderer] 10/11/2023 14:41

I want to see some large buys from directors first ;-)

[scepticalinvestor] 10/11/2023 14:31

Welcome YanksTime to BUYYYYYYYYYY

[benny shares] 10/11/2023 14:18

They'll be plenty drowning their sorrows

[careful] 10/11/2023 14:17

topped up.

If inflation falls here and in USA there could be quite a good rally over the next few months.
..my guess is that it will fall quite sharply.

FTSE100 index was over 8000 early this year.
It is almost 7400 now, rocketing up from almost 7000 in dec 1999. Wow. up 6% in 24 years.

[jonny_wright] 10/11/2023 14:15

Agreed, think will keep falling - people are obviously not spending as much on alcohol

[scepticalinvestor] 10/11/2023 14:10

As i said 2900 + close imo

[billy two cocks] 10/11/2023 14:08

I wonder what will happen when GBP strengthens?

Today's profit warning during a weak period for GBP should be ringing loud alarm bells.

[philanderer] 10/11/2023 14:01

FT

RBC Capital Markets analysts James Edward Jones and Emma Letheren said: “If this is a temporary . . . then why did Diageo feel the need to up multiyear investment behind its global business? Our concern is that Diageo is facing a widespread retrenchment in premium spirits consumption caused by macroeconomic pressures around the world with an unknown end date.”

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2023 13:51

A Buy case today is predicated on the re-establishment of growth in FY '25 -
appreciate some will buy on a longer term basis.

[action] 10/11/2023 13:25

Sorry 3000p

[action] 10/11/2023 13:23

Save by the bell. Wanted to buy at 2900p.

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2023 13:05

Remy has a much higher exposure to Cognac, at least from my understanding - and that spirit is significantly underforming the wider spirit sector atm.

On DGE the bearish case - premium substitution will increasingly be seen in mature markets, DGE free cash flow of late has been weaker than expectations.

Allowing for a FY EPS of say £1.55 pence, that's down from 1.65 consensus before today, would put DGE on an 18 X forward multiple, at the current price.

Today may arguably hasten a move to a stateside primary listing on the NYSE

[plunger2] 10/11/2023 13:02

Happy to be with Buffett.
Correction looks way overdone. But D Crew is a newbie and this is a bad start. She will not be the flavour of the month. However, if the plan is to underpromise and over deliver she could be feted in a year or two.
The jury's out. But so far the shareholders are doing an unpleasant "stretch".

It's my largest holding and I ain't going anywhere.

GLA

[montyhedge] 10/11/2023 13:00

Yes you're right does that mean another two to come along.

[mcunliffe1] 10/11/2023 12:58

Billy2C: The Koran may well ban alcohol but having been to the Middle East as a tourist many times you wouldn't particularly think that.

The 'Rising Tensions' have resulted in a dramatic fall in tourist numbers. There is almost zero tourism in Israel - which does not forbid alcohol.

Morocco and Israel held the two top 'middle east' destinations in Q1 and Q2 2023. Morocco is probably still holding top spot as it is geographically far enough away from Gaza.

[spacecake] 10/11/2023 12:54

Remy-Cointreau came out with a similar press release for 2023-24....

A strong decline in sales in the first half and a strong recovery in the second half.

I find it difficult to believe Remy or Diageo can foretell the future. Actually, I don't believe them, profit warnings, like buses tend to come in three's.

[benny shares] 10/11/2023 12:53

Since WB bought it, the value has dropped nearly 25 %. Makes you wonder if he's sold out

[888icb] 10/11/2023 12:10

WB73
I was finally convinced to buy when I knew Buffett had bought and due to recent market conditions managed to buy more cheaply than he did.Buffett buys to hold for the long term so if he thought £35 was a good entry point one would expect he may be interested to pick up more £7 per share cheaper.I have bought some more this morning and it will be interesting to see how the Americans react when New York opens.

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2023 12:10

Ed, WB has not exactly been greedy on DGE, at least to this point!! - but we shall see.

DGE is one of Berkshire's snallest stock positions.

[edwardt] 10/11/2023 12:06

Be greedy when others are fearful as Warren would say

[edwardt] 10/11/2023 11:58

Pre market was indicating -5% , so I think a trade to near that gap is a sensible call

[mcunliffe1] 10/11/2023 11:51

Hope: appreciate your heads-up.

Looking into DGE's fall a little more than is provided on this thread and it seems to me to be really about the world-wide economic slowdown and consumers switching away from premium products towards less expensive offerings.

ALDI and Lidl have both ridden that wave and have been particularly successful as they often offer equally good products at a smaller price than branded.

The LAC (Latin America and Caribbean) area accounts for 11% of DGE's total sales. DGE have stated that they expect a 20% reduction in sales in the LAC area.

That equates to 2.2% of TOTAL sales.

However, other premium product companines such as LVMH and Watches of Switzerland have also seen a reduction in their sales. It appears the rich also have a frugal tendency.

As regards this 'bouncing back' I'd be surprised - and unhappy as I held £10k's worth as at mid Aug. 2023 when I bought at £32.32. But this market is troubled and I'm looking for a 10 year hold on this share.

I am not inclined to add further money in DGE just yet. I'm happy to keep the cash in my ii SIPP as it's earning slightly more than DGE's div. yield.

And that seems to be the issue across the wider market. It's easier at the moment to earn more from safer investments.