Dev.Secs. Share Discussion Threads

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 15:08

Redhill,you can analyse a photograph all you like but the camera never lies.

Please enlighten me as to why this share is falling off a cliff if all is well with upcoming results and bear in mind the market tends to know first.

Have folk finally awoke to the nonsense which propelled the share price 12 months ago? When a realistic level here is 0.80p

[horndean eagle] 15/10/2014 14:07

I don't disagree its not a bad trade given the discount. Given IPD values have shot up means DSC will no doubt report a hefty jump in nav next time around. Buying around here vs buying at 215-220p is a very different story. I just wouldn't expect the discount to narrow markedly or expect any decent sort of performance on the operating front. Others have previously suggested that was a reason to be buying.

[tiltonboy] 15/10/2014 13:21

HE,

I hear what you say, and I do not disagree with your comments, but as an opportunistic trader, I am merely trying to buy this for a short-term bounce, and will be further led by news-flow. I'm not betting on it happening again, but the share price put on 80% from it's trough last April.

Would I buy this if the apparent discount was not so wide...definitely not, but I'm prepared to buy it as a trade.

I have been fooled in the past by apparent discounts not being reflective, and I'm sure I will again, but at the moment I'm prepared to give it a whirl.

[horndean eagle] 15/10/2014 13:10

CM - You are way out of your depth here. Ive tried to be helpful but it just seems to go way over your head. FCF yield is immaterial to a company like DSC because it is distorted by acquisitions and disposals. ROE is the key metric here and on that basis I would hazard a guess it would come in bottom 10% of UK listed peers. That is reflected in the huge discount the company trades on. The 2 are very much linked.

[citymohawk] 15/10/2014 12:45

And as for the likes of Leeds, rest assured the chap is an amateur gambler. No one is short on the market guys, so whilst these guys go short through a spread bet they are actually assisting in our liquidity as the s/b companies hedge out to market. I've done a smart route check on DSC and it can't be shorted on the market.

[citymohawk] 15/10/2014 12:28

Horndean

I'm not entirely sure how you are calculating these numbers. DSC are not running a check account with the Halifax for the returns to be calculated on such a literal basis. I think you are comparing apples with pears here.

I don't see you quoting as follows, and look forward to your figures if you have them:

The last 5 year growth in NTAV:
The growth in cash flow over the last 5 years:
The growth in investment activity over the last 5 years:
Top line growth in the last 5 years:
Growth in pretax margins over the past 5 years:

In terms of revenue per share they are in 11th place out of 32 stocks in their industry. Yes the ROE may be "only" 5.8% and whilst that is fundamental, the fact remains that they have a near 9% cash flow yield.

I mean this politely, but you seem to be mincing yields and rates of return on equity. In their category, they are as efficient as any of their piers. In fact, they sit right in the middle (see below).

The problem is that you (and most of you sceptics) are looking at the share price first where I agree, it is exceptionally frustrating.


TRV TREVERIA PLC -29737%
PLAZ PLAZA CENTERS NV -864%
DUPD DRAGON-UKRAINIAN PROPERTIES -70%
DCI DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS -42%
RUS RAVEN RUSSIA LTD -2%
SAPO SOUTH AFRICAN PROPERTY OPPOR 0%
LXB LXB RETAIL PROPERTIES 0%
UTG UNITE GROUP PLC 0%
DJAN DAEJAN HOLDINGS PLC 0%
UCP UNITECH CORPORATE PARKS 0%
KWE KENNEDY WILSON EUROPE REA 0%
QED QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV PLC 3%
BLV BELVOIR LETTINGS PLC 5%
WSP WYNNSTAY PROPERTIES PLC 6%
CAL CAPITAL & REGIONAL PLC 6%
FOXT FOXTONS GROUP PLC 8%
DSC DEVELOPMENT SECURITIES PLC 8%
CWD COUNTRYWIDE PLC 8%
WINK M WINKWORTH PLC 9%
MTVW MOUNTVIEW ESTATES PLC 9%
LAS LONDON & ASSOC PROP PLC 10%
CCPR CAPITAL & COUNTIES PROPERTIE 11%
SMP ST MODWEN PROPERTIES PLC 11%
PNS PANTHER SECURITIES PLC 11%
CLI CLS HOLDINGS PLC 11%
LSL LSL PROPERTY SERVICES PLC 12%
GRI GRAINGER PLC 12%
HLCL HELICAL BAR PLC 22%
AGP ASIAN GROWTH PROPERTIES LTD 28%
SBD SONGBIRD ESTATES PLC 51%
SMTG SUMMIT GERMANY LTD 1470%
SRE SIRIUS REAL ESTATE LTD 2435%

[jl9] 15/10/2014 12:24

Marx doesn't run DSC for shareholders. The tie-up with Cathedral confirms this. With Upton it's more ideological, whereas Marx is just a bungling parasite.

[redhill9] 15/10/2014 12:16

Against my principles, but I've filtered Leedsu36 and JL9.

Negative comment backed by fact or comment (such as Horndean Eagle who at least supports his views with some attempt at analysis) is fine but the vacuous silliness of Leedsu36 and JL9, who appear to post only because they haven't anything worthwhile to do in life, isn't worth reading.

redhill

[tiltonboy] 15/10/2014 12:14

leedsu,

SKYSHIP is a succesful and well respected investor, so grow up. If others come to a different conclusion, well that's what makes a market. Succesful investors get the occasional one wrong, and if we do we just put our hands up and admit it.

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 11:59

I'm going to have to presume now you are part on CM's click squad...hmmm last known count was 18 of you all.

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 11:56

Are you having a laugh Skyship!

May I suggest you climb back aboard your ship and go to the moon,are you actually involved and connected with DSC? If so be careful how you tread.

[skyship] 15/10/2014 11:37

It is an interesting exercise to look at the share price of DSC compared with the two REIT peers – BLND & LAND.

Going from the turn of the century, you will note that at the bottom of the 2008/9 crash, share price movements were pretty much par-passu.

What then caused the divergence was the stock overhang from the 2010/11 rights issues, as discussed in the Header to this thread.

After the tap finished it can be seen that actually DSC has outperformed the other two; though needs to go some to once again close the gap.

A clear exercise of the fact that Market timing is everything in this game; and frankly does rather shed a different light to the the bearish comments made by others.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[horndean eagle] 15/10/2014 11:24

CM

Have you see DSC returns within their development portfolio? Development obviously riskier than investment so you would think higher gains needed to compensate. They made 10.3m on 210m of net assets in the development portfolio. Less than 5%. Is that a number that you would be happy with? It gets worse. A lot of their development portfolio has elements of residential included. DSC markedly benefited from higher house prices and yet their returns are still so poor. What added value are they getting from the planning?

[jl9] 15/10/2014 10:25

They're all queuing to exit on a bounce not seeing they're mincemeat.

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 09:41

Market always gets wind of results,the rapid fall from June circa £2.55 to £1.80 October when results are due does not smack that those results are special.

Do not be trapped,get out while you still can.

[jl9] 15/10/2014 09:03

Deliver beggarly uplifts followed by thumping multi-year write downs. Refuel and repeat. Their business model assumes, not just a free cost of capital, but free capital. That they've retained a listing for 20 years testifies to the dissembling genius of Marx.

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 08:38

Going back a few posts CM you were nearly right,as the saying goes 'go away in May,come back on Leger day..

You see along with QPP shorted in May @ 3.30 and recently closed @ 1.65 i shorted DSC @ 2.42 and have closed @ 1.97 with a view to re-shorting after results,that being just in case they cook the results along with releasing some fluffy statement that temporarily lifts share price prior to folks eyes opening,and as soon as 1.76 is breached.

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 08:16

As seen through rose tinted optical aids.

[citymohawk] 15/10/2014 08:14

Horndean

I don't think you can strictly compare like for like the way you are. The DSC business model has a portfolio focussed on "adding value" to "market value" properties. i.e. They buy an asset (which may not necessarily be BMV) and then they create value within that asset and flip/lease. The yields are inherently enhanced. The reason you say "I guarantee DSC has not matched this" is because for one to do a strict comparison is not really possible on an asset basis. This is because trading is only part of their portfolio operation.

They have (from memory) 22 projects to be delivered in 2015. To be honest, I think this will take the market cap closer to 500m +(i.e. the discount to CURRENT nav will be closed, whilst it may still be trading at a discount to 2016 projects)

I see your points, but disagree with the comparison.

[leedsu36] 15/10/2014 07:47

Tough is not the word,there is going to be some serious explanations needed here.

pi's are always last to act,hanging in there hoping for a turnaround in share price when large investors have already moved on and cut their losses,in other words the coffee should have been smelt 6 months ago.

[elmfield] 14/10/2014 20:33

Whoops.
Just fallen off the edge.

[skinny] 14/10/2014 20:32

As posted yesterday, I bought a few as an initial stamp - similar with BBYB this morning - so if there's room on you bench, move over Elmfield :-)

[badtime] 14/10/2014 20:26

Surely from where you are sitting its all good..in cash :)

[elmfield] 14/10/2014 20:14

I must say though I am still not buying yet,
Good luck those that have though, but
the future looks tough from where I am sitting.

[horndean eagle] 14/10/2014 18:41

I was talking about property yields. They invest in secondary assets and yields on those properties were circa 7.5-8% when the last reported. Commercial property has risen very rapidly over the last year or so. Here is a link to the industry data base on property returns.



Over the last 12 months to Sept all property has returned 19.7%. Retail is up 14.5%, Office 25.2% and Industrial 24.6%. These returns combine capital growth + rental income. I will guarantee that DSC will have markedly underperformed any of the benchmarks. They like to spin a story to suit themselves. Last year they decided to use the IPD benchmark which excluded London property to compare their returns. They then had a great idea to invest in London property 4 months. This is after the market had risen over 70% off its lows. During the lows DSC were instead investing in assets which didn't benefit at all from the bounce.

The bigger story is the cost base at DSC. Whatever returns they generate are massively reduced by huge cost base. Its a toxic combination of poor decision making and huge cost base that make DSC such an appalling long term stock.