Dev.Secs. Share Discussion Threads

[jl9] 24/8/2014 11:15

I agree DSC looks like an "investment opportunity that is likely to benefit from structural tailwinds that has an attractive valuation". As someone late to this bull market that is why I invested in it originally. But I think we've all been reminded recently that DSC is very much a fair weather stock. It takes a lot to lift it and not much to sink it again. I can see scburbs investment rationale here but I personally would have to feel comfortable about the market overall to feel comfortable in DSC.

[scburbs] 22/8/2014 19:54

Does someone want to point him in the direction of DSC? No sign that DSC's shares or their assets are highly priced by historical standards! DSC have reported 1.6% valuation gains in their investment portfolio after years of falls!

Secondary property has started to move up sharply, but it is not highly priced by historical standards (despite the low interest rates) whereas prime property is. Indeed secondary property values have been falling since the financial crisis and probably only turned just over a year ago, although some of them have now bounced very sharply.

[elmfield] 22/8/2014 19:09

Well,
Where to start!
Jacob Rothschild put it pretty well:



Given current stock market valuations, further market appreciation will continue to be influenced by central bank policy of creating money and maintaining low interest rates. We have become uncomfortable in participating in liquidity fuelled markets and are sceptical as to whether the current degree of investor complacency can be maintained. We continue to search assiduously for investment opportunities that are likely to benefit from structural tailwinds at attractive valuations and which are not conditional on short-term monetary policies. The search however has become increasingly challenging. Almost every asset class is highly priced by historical standards at a time when the precarious geo-political situation in the Middle East and Russia could undermine the fragile economic recovery which central bank policy has helped to bring about.

[jl9] 22/8/2014 09:32

What are you seeing that's worrying you?

[elmfield] 20/8/2014 19:56

EI,
No not now, always have been in the past,
Must be an age thing!
Or just being realistic about where we really are as a country
and a world economy, QE is a new thing, nobody knows how this is going to end
but I don't like what I am seeing.

[citymohawk] 20/8/2014 17:16

lol@tobias! lol brilliant.

Still watching DSC and may consider coming back in soon. This afternoon was promising but just waiting to see what the wider market does till Sept ish.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2014 15:49

You don't do boundless optimism elmfield, do you? )

[elmfield] 20/8/2014 15:43

Well rather like giving the yield on tesco of the previous dividend rather
than the future one, same with NAV but yes this will be
One I would buy when the time is right.
Sometimes the hardest thing is to sit on a mountain
of cash but it must be prudent to do so, up to a point, surely?

[skyship] 20/8/2014 15:33

"Net IRR registers barely above 7%" - Agreed, somewhat distant from that 20% figure; will have to look more closely, though for me it is always the NAV which dictates value.

That £150k IS real cash in my book, but then I was never a high earner so all things are relevant to ones own experience I suppose.

[sleepy] 20/8/2014 14:48

JL9 - thank you but very disappointed not to get details of the lunch!

[speedsgh] 20/8/2014 14:39

Horndean - Regardless of the £11.5m he has received, I can't see him wasting £150k on DSC shares if he thought there wasn't value at the current share price. As I said previously, value will out in the end, it's just that these days most people can't be bothered to wait for it. We'll just have to agree to disagree for now.

[jl9] 20/8/2014 14:16

google: julian barwick extremely expensive lunch

[horndean eagle] 20/8/2014 13:45

Is £150k a real vote of confidence? He has just received circa £11.5m in cash by selling Cathedral to DSC. Another £6m on its way as deferred cash and he took £6m in shares. When he stumps up some real cash I might take his buying more seriously.

I forgot to mention I did question the company about the 20% IRR number they are always keen to shout about. Apparently they don't consider the 20% IRR to be a net figure. Its before all costs involved. They returned less than 5% net return on their development assets last year. I wonder where all those costs end up.

[elmfield] 20/8/2014 12:44

Yes absurd unless we get a market crash and I am afraid
that could happen when the city returns to their desks,
All about each ones view on risk versus reward,
I am not rushing to buy, yet.

[skyship] 20/8/2014 12:30

speedsgh - exactly. A real vote of confidence to slap £150k of the cash received for Cathedral by buying another 72,000 shares. The current price is absurd, he knows it, I know it, you know it; but there are always doubters who moan when they are just a victim of their own bad timing.

Mind you, before I made really good profits here last year, I too was for a time nursing a 14% loss having bought at c170p and seeing them drift to 146p; before averaging down then benefitting from the turnaround when it came.

Moral - averaging down sometimes doesn't deserve the bad name given to it by many commentators!

[speedsgh] 20/8/2014 11:39

Director/PDMR Shareholding -

Nice purchase by Richard Upton (executive director + founder of the acquired Cathedral Group). I can't see him spending the best part of £150k on DSC shares unless he felt/knew they were very good value at these levels. Patience required but value will out eventually. Aimho.

[valhamos] 19/8/2014 16:49

Topped up today. Good value here and pleased to get a better price than recent director buys.

[trytotakeiteasy] 18/8/2014 13:23

can't believe I ever looked at this junk.. it was one of those writers from the investors Chroncile..Stephen Wilmot who got me looking at it..... saying this is cheap as it as a discount to assets.... about as useful as saying something is cheap on a low P/E....

[tobias] 16/8/2014 16:52

Im afraid you could be right

[horndean eagle] 15/8/2014 16:20

Hitting new year lows and the sellers still not done. Down circa 20% for the year now. Its all gone horribly wrong since Soros got out. How he managed to dupe Aberdeen into paying the price they did shows how well he runs his ship. Says an awful lot about Aberdeen Asset management as well. Think a lot of institutions were on Soros coat tail here and when he scarpered they now also want to get out. Did highlight how bad DSC management is a while back. Was generally shouted down by those talking about its discount to nav etc. The fact its discount managed to narrow was a miracle. Now back to how it should really be rated until Marx and his cronies are booted out. Unfortunately that won't happen any time soon.

[elmfield] 11/8/2014 23:06

Dsc served me o.k but one to buy on the dip sell on the spike,
Out at the moment.

[trytotakeiteasy] 11/8/2014 15:49

thanks Mozy for that great feedback.. I notice you didn't actually try to dispute my points... the long-term record is rubbish and that is with the current management.... bearing that in mind it is a reasonable argument that the company should wind itself up in my view so stockholders can get the discount to asset value.. unless we can see management change...but these guys seem so entrenched that is not going to happen as far as I can see..

[mozy123] 11/8/2014 15:30

Dear trytotakeiteasy

You are an idiot. Wind your neck in and return it to your shoulders.

Your headholder

[trytotakeiteasy] 11/8/2014 12:21

Dear Development Securities management and directors.

You are rubbish. With a ridiculously poor long-term track record. Wind up the company so we can get our assets back rather than the stock trading at a discount.

Your Shareholders.